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In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: The Bucs’ Burgeoning Run Game

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Bucs bring in a new offensive coordinator from the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree, and he wants to implement a mid-zone/wide zone run game only to see 4-5 weeks into the season that basing this offense out of that system results in a run game that leaves a lot of meat on the bone.

From there it becomes a choose your own adventure story. In 2023, Dave Canales chose to continue to put the square peg in the round hole and the Bucs’ run game was near the bottom of the league in just about every major running metric. In 2024, Liam Coen decided to follow Robert Frost’s road less traveled. He turned the run game on its head, leaning into power, man and counter runs that worked downhill. The Bucs went from a middling ground attack to one of the NFL’s best.

Bucs Rb Bucky Irving

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Now in 2026, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is finding past is prologue. Per Sumer Sports, through the first four weeks of this season the Bucs had run outside zone more than any other concept to the tune of 2.65 yards per carry, -0.273 EPA/rush and an anemic success rate of just 10%. Meanwhile, on man/gap/inside zone runs they were generating 4.81 yards per carry, +0.030 EPA/rush and a dominant success rate of 48.6%.

With the Cowboys game looming Robinson was faced with Frost’s proverbial fork in the road. What would he choose? It appears he countered Canales’ decision and followed Coen’s lead.

Robinson called outside zone on just 21% of his non-trick play or QB sneak designed run calls – a 5% reduction from his Week 1-4 rate. Meanwhile the gap/man/inside zone rate climbed 8%. Duo and power were the two concepts that saw the biggest increase in usage. Those calls helped set up the counter and inside zone calls that went for the big gains. In all, that trio of run calls went for 180 yards at 7.5 yards per clip while generating a successful play 54% of the time.

The Bucs are now seventh in the NFL in EPA/rush and 12th in rushing success rate. If they can continue to lean into the concepts that work best for their personnel, it can become the basis for a more successful offense.

Bucky Irving And Wide Zone

Bucky Irving is a creative freelancer by nature. Theoretically, wide zone should amplify his ability by giving him a menu of options to choose from as the play develops. He can bounce the run outside if the play side edge is reached, bang inside if a gap develops inside, or bend to the backside of the play if the defense over-pursues.

In practice, Bucky can’t help himself but continually cut backside. At the beginning of the season Irving was finding plenty of space doing this thanks to his stop-start ability and excellent short area quickness.

But by the time Week 3 rolled around teams were holding a linebacker backside expecting the cut back. That led to a deterioration in their efficiency running wide zone.

Irving’s creativity is channeled in a gap run scheme. It asks him to work downhill by nature, simplifies his decision-making until he gets into open space and past the line.

Beyond Irving’s proclivities, a man scheme is conducive to the Bucs offensive line. Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch are a formidable double team and Graham Barton’s size and strength are what set him apart as a center.

Tampa Bay can do fun things with offensive linemen in space. The combined athleticism of the group allows for offensive coordinators to do innovative things in the screen game. But in terms of a pure, “impose our will” run game, downhill is the Bucs’ version of a straight line – the shortest distance between them and a dominant run game is a straight downhill line.

Finance: Chris Godwin Jr.’s Trade Value

Despite the win in Dallas, Tampa Bay’s win percentage is just .200 with a 1-4 record. And while the Bucs are just 1.5 games outside of first place in the NFC South, the odds of them making the playoffs are still low. And the problems that plagued them through Week 4 may be slightly improved, but they aren’t gone. As such, the Bucs still may be sellers at the NFL trade deadline.

Last week I profiled what the Bucs may be able to fetch in return for outside linebacker Yaya Diaby. This week I wanted to profile a player who has been a fundamental stalwart of the franchise since arriving in 2017. The Bucs rewarded Chris Godwin Jr. for an impressive career culminating in a league-leading resume before a gruesome ankle injury robbed him of his 2024 season. Tampa Bay signed him to a three-year, $66 million deal. He is now in the midst of the second year of that deal and the last of his guaranteed money.

Bucs Wr Chris Godwin Jr.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs owe Godwin a bit over $15.5 million for the remainder of the season. But Godwin’s return from injury has been at a diminished capacity in terms of production. Over his past 14 games, dating back to the start of the 2025 season, he has 52 catches for 539 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a full season pace of 63 receptions for 655 yards and still two touchdowns. Placed within the 2025 leaderboards he would be tied for 43rd in catches and 54th in yards while ranking 25th in APY and 22nd in cash at his position this year.

All this to say, Godwin, God love him, isn’t producing at a commiserate level with his rate of pay.

If any teams are interested in a 30-year-old possession receiver, the Bucs will need to eat the majority of Godwin’s salary. At his current production rate, Godwin would probably get $5 million or so on the open market. In order to entice another team to trade for him Tampa Bay would need to convert about $13 million of his remaining salary into a signing bonus, leaving the acquiring team on the hook for just $2 million this year. They could then cut him next year without owing him any of his $22 million salary in 2027.

The compensation for Godwin at that point would be a late Day 3 pick, likely a seventh-rounder. The Bucs would clear minimal salary but invite more dead salary cap in 2027. As it stands right now, if they keep Godwin through the end of this year, they can walk away from his deal with $16.231 million in dead cap while freeing up $20.5 million in cash owed in 2027. Under this scenario the Bucs would add $9.75 million to that number. It’s doable, and the team would still clear cap from their current outlook if he remains on the roster next year, but it would be by that much less.

Forecast: The Bucs’ Underlying Performance Belies Better Days Ahead

As bad as it may have felt through the first four weeks of the season, the Bucs weren’t as bad as their record said they were. I know Bill Parcells famously said, “You are what your record says you are,” and there is truth to that on a backwards-looking basis. But looking ahead that’s not always the case. Now I’m not saying the Bucs are going to suddenly turn into the 1985 Bears and go on a run. But the win against the Cowboys won’t be their last.

The Bucs currently rank fifth in defensive EPA/play, 11th in defensive success rate, tied for 12th in takeaways and 14th in defensive explosive rate. The offense is still a problem, ranking bottom-eight in most categories. But a defense that is rapidly proving it is above average – though not dominant – will keep them in, and help them win a few ballgames.

Bucs Hc Todd Bowles

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Most importantly, they have scored 100 points while allowing 112. A minus-12 point differential suggests a team that should play slightly below .500 ball for the remainder of the season. A 5-7 or 6-6 record the rest of way wouldn’t surprise me one bit, finishing with a disappointing 6-11 or 7-10 record and likely a new coaching staff next year.

Fun Fourth Down: Mike Evans Is Still A Pot-Stirrer

In case you were living under a rock, former Buccaneer and future Ring of Honor inductee, Mike Evans made the world stand up and take notice of him once again. It wasn’t for his seven-catch, 113-yard, touchdown performance in the 49ers’ divisional win over the Seahawks. It wasn’t for surpassing Keenan McCardell for 30th all-time in receptions, DeAndre Hopkins for 18th all-time in receiving yards or tying Tony Gonzalez for ninth all-time in receiving touchdowns.

Mike Evans49Ers

Oct 11, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Mike Evans (5) leaps to catch a pass against Seattle Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe (29) during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

No, Evans went viral for immediately putting himself in the center of the Seahawks-49ers rivalry by putting Seattle cornerback Stefon Diggs on blast with the greatest “Who are you?” dig ever recorded.

Evans’ former teammate Richard Sherman, who played plenty of games on both sides of the rivalry had one of the best commentaries on Evans’ diabolical move.

Evans has never been one to shy away from a rivalry or going after a rival. His beefs with Marshawn Lattimore of the New Orleans Saints were stuff of legends.

Evans is the ultimate “I want that guy on my side.” player. It’s no wonder every 49er superstar vet speaks of him as if they are in awe of his greatness.

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Joshua Queipo

Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.

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