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In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: Keionte Scott’s Impact

The Bucs chose to start three rookies on defense this year. Inside linebacker Josiah Trotter and outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. got all the fanfare, but the third leg of that trifecta has been quietly making an impact himself. Keionte Scott has taken over in the slot for Jacob Parrish, who took over for Tykee Smith, who took over for Christian Izien, who took over for Antoine Winfield Jr., who took over for Sean Murphy-Bunting.

The funniest part of that year-over-year transitional chart has been that every one of the players before him performed well in the role. But whether it be letting a player depart in free agency (Murphy-Bunting), switching one to a position they feel he will be more impactful at (Smith, Winfield), or just thinking there is an upgrade available (Izien), Tampa Bay has created plenty of voluntary turnover at the position.

For his part, Scott has had plenty of ups – and his share of downs – as he navigates one of the most mentally demanding positions on the field as a rookie. Through seven games he has 38 tackles, two for a loss, three passes defensed and one sack.

Scott’s impact play rate, defined by Sumer Sports as an exceptionally well executed play for a player’s role and alignment, thus far this season is 3.6%. That’s a tick above Parrish in the slot last year (3.4%) and a tick below Smith’s in 2024 (3.7%).

And there’s no question where his impact plays are coming from. His trigger to react and fit the run has been his best tool thus far in his career.

You can see those same gifts when he gets after perimeter screens or when he is taking down a receiver post-catch.

Scott leads all NFL cornerbacks in run stop rate according to Pro Football Focus at 7.46%. Much of this is how he is used within Todd Bowles’ defense. He is second amongst all corners in pass rushes which shows how much Bowles is pointing him at the line of scrimmage and asking him to get downhill quickly. Between his quick trigger, fast spool up and fearless nature make him the perfect modern slot corner to set edges and destroy run games.

In coverage Scott has shown high end traits to win in man coverage and a good feel for zone principles. But he isn’t immune to making rookie mistakes.

In the clip above the Bucs are in Cover 3 against a 3×1 look that the Bengals motion into. There seems to be a communication error between Scott and Trotter (two rookies still working it out!) as they both flow to the same relative spot. It looks like Scott is trying to funnel Ja’Marr Chase inside to leveraged help from Alex Anzalone, but as he gets caught in Trotter’s wash he positions himself to not be able to defend the outside break. The result is a 16-yard gain.

There are other instances where Scott seems to confuse his pickup assignment leaving a teammate to try and cover for him. Most recently he carried a seam that he should have passed off to Zyon McCollum in the deep third and then picked up the underneath out-breaker. These are acceptable lessons he is learning as he grows within the system.

But while he’s growing the things he is doing well, his impact, is being felt as he helps create negatives for the offense. His ability as a pass rusher blends perfectly with what Bowles and the modern NFL defense need out of a slot corner. He quickly gets on top of quarterbacks as lanes are created for him through games up front. And he’s shown the body control to contort around blocks to still convert pressures and sacks when a back is waiting for him.

Scott has the speed to get vertical with receivers, but I have noticed that if he has to widen before getting deep in man coverage, he can lose his angle and get off the receiver’s hip. Scott is at his best when he’s allowed to drop into hooks, keep his eyes in the backfield and trigger down on underneath throws. He’s allowing 5.2 yards after catch per reception. That puts him in the 58th percentile at the nickel position.

While his trigger is excellent to get to check downs and underneath options quickly, Scott can skip coming to balance and is often diving at ankles to make tackles. He usually gets a hook or grip and holds on to finish, but he can miss those tackles on occasion leading to his 16.7% missed tackle rate.

Scott has been a boom-or-bust player through his first seven games. But the underlying skillset and natural improvement as a processor create the foundation for a strong building block going forward.

Finance: Payne Durham’s Trade Value

I noted last week that if the Bucs are sellers at the deadline, it would be them shipping off more of a complementary piece like Justin Skule or Payne Durham than a star like Chris Godwin Jr. or Antoine Winfield Jr.

The more I think about it, the more I believe Durham is the most likely candidate to get moved. He’s a great backup tight end who can step in to another offense as a blocking specialist in 12 and 13 personnel. The league has shifted to that personnel package over the past two seasons, and the run game is back in style. That all lends itself to a market that would value him. He’s on a league minimum salary this year and set to be a free agent next year.

Bucs Te Payne Durham

Bucs TE Payne Durham – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Durham’s profile as a strong run blocker who can elevate the edges of a run game places him in the archetype of Josh Oliver for the Vikings, Charlie Kolar for the Chargers and John Bates for the Commanders. Those three make between $7 million and $8.1 million per year.

Given Durham’s $1.145 million salary this year brings some contractual surplus value. Given his talent, profile/archetype and expiring contract, Durham won’t command a large haul. A 2027 seventh-rounder or 2028 sixth-round pick is the right ballpark for him.

Forecast: The Bucs Roster Is Better Than This – And Worthy of A 2027 Shot

At 2-5, the Bucs’ chances of making noise this year are slim. Yes, the NFC South is bad. Yes, they are only 1.5 games out of first place. But they have shown a propensity for shooting themselves in in the foot, and in the words of head coach Todd Bowles they still haven’t learned how to close out games. The Bucs are good enough to keep things interesting and not close the door on the season, but it is reasonable to doubt there short-term outlook with Bowles at the helm.

But make no mistake. This roster is better than 2-5. And it should be kept in tact for another run in 2027. There are several reasons to believe this isn’t a tear down.

The Recent Draft Classes Have Popped

The Bucs’ 2025 draft class is turning into a strong roster builder. Third-round pick Jacob Parrish is an ascending superstar. His 11 pass break ups lead the NFL, and his 3.2% impact play rate is the 13th highest among cornerbacks this season according to Sumer Sports. Second-round pick Benjamin Morrison has flashed high-end traits when he’s been healthy.

After missing all of 2025 with a torn ACL, David Walker has been incredibly productive despite limited playing time.

Elijah Roberts has been a solid rotational pass rusher. That’s a fantastic return for a fifth-round pick. And let’s not forget seventh-round pick Tez Johnson. He was the 26th wide receiver selected last year. He’s currently 11th amongst that group in career receptions (37), ninth in yards (500) and tied for third in touchdowns. And undrafted free agent tackle Ben Chukwuma has been fantastic for a swing tackle in three spot starts over the past two seasons.

First-round pick Emeka Egbuka has had his fair share of ups and downs. But the talent and route running is undeniably there.

Bucs Wr Emeka Egbuka - Photo By: Adam Warren P/R

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: Adam Warren P/R

Rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter and nickel corner Keionte Scott have been impactful parts of a defense that has flashed on film and statistically ranks as one of the best in the NFL. Wide receiver Ted Hurst III and tight end Bauer Sharp have both had brief moments of brilliance. Even though first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. didn’t hit the ground running, he is improving weekly, which should only add to the promising return that has already shown up.

That’s four impactful starters and numerous complimentary and depth players from two drafts.

The Foundational Pieces Are There

Beyond those recent additions you can count numerous other young foundational pieces. Calijah Kancey is a disrupting force in the middle of the defense. Zyon McCollum is living up to the $15 million APY extension he signed last year. Tykee Smith is one of the best run defending safeties in the NFL, with playmaking skills to boot. In nickel defense, that’s 8-9 young, cost-controlled players set for 2027.

On offense, in addition to Egbuka, the Bucs have their bookend tackles in Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke. Center Graham Barton has ascended this year into a quality starter who needed time to develop at a difficult position. Running back Bucky Irving is an explosive running back who can contribute in the passing game as well. And I’ll continue to beat the drum that Cade Otton is a good tight end that is a net positive for a quality offense.

Bucs Rb Bucky Irving

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now consider Jalen McMillan, Hurst and Sharp can have positive roles and you can see an offense with plenty of pieces. It’s not terribly dissimilar to the offense that was stacking big time performances in 2024. Not the same. But similar.

Liam Coen walked into Jacksonville in 2025 and turned a 3-14 team into a 14-3 team. General manager Jason Licht recruited Tom Brady to Tampa Bay in 2020 and won a Super Bowl and turned around the culture of an entire organization. This roster feels closer to those situations than it does to the fire sale Indianapolis just started by trading away Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner.

I’m not saying Licht shouldn’t be active at the deadline. There are players on expiring deals who could potentially net someday three picks. Wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. doesn’t seem long for the team next year. Cody Mauch, Yaya Diaby and Payne Durham could all be allowed to move on next year. If that’s in Licht’s plans, then an early trade can help him acquire the extra draft collateral to move up and down in earlier rounds to find other gems like Mauch, and Diaby (both were selected after Licht moved up to pick them).

But I would not advocate for moves like trading away Antoine Winfield Jr., McCollum, or Kancey. Those players can still be big parts of a huge comeback in 2027 for Tampa Bay.

Fun Fourth Down: The Bucs Tight Ends Were On One Against The Panthers

The Bucs came one point shy of having four times as many points as they had pass attempts on Sunday. That’s plain fun. They ran for 258 yards and three touchdowns. That’s fun. They imposed their wills upon a divisional rival in the rival’s home stadium. That’s a flippin’ party. Here is but a smattering of Bucs run game running roughshod over the Panthers defense. For your viewing pleasure.

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Joshua Queipo

Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.

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