Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay kept its faint hopes of winning the division alive by beating NFC South rival Carolina on the road to improve its record to 2-5 and 1-0 in the division while the Panthers fell to 3-3 on the year with a 1-1 mark in division play. The Bucs still have some seriously heavy lifting to do to dig out of a 0-4 hole at the start of the season, but a win over another division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, this Sunday at Raymond James Stadium, would go a long way. More importantly, the Buccaneers could improve to 2-0 in the NFC South with a win.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

For the 2-5 Buccaneers, Sunday’s matchup against the 3-4 Falcons represents another critical opportunity to breathe life into their season. After opening the year with four straight losses, Tampa Bay has won two of its last three games, including a convincing 43-13 demolition of Carolina last week. Now the Bucs have a chance to make another statement against a division rival and climb closer to the top of the NFC South standings. The division remains wide open, and a victory would pull Tampa Bay even with Atlanta at 3-5 while strengthening its position in the race.

Tampa Bay’s formula for success has become clearer. The Bucs rushed for 258 yards against the Panthers and have averaged 146.4 rushing yards per game, ranking third in the NFL. Defensively, they have generated 10 sacks over their last two games, a dramatic improvement in their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. But Atlanta arrives with confidence after upsetting San Francisco, powered by quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who threw three touchdowns versus the 49ers, and running back Bijan Robinson. The Falcons are averaging 24.4 points per game, ranking 10th in the league.

For Tampa Bay, Sunday is about sustaining momentum, and getting a long awaited home win, and proving that its disastrous start does not define its season. Another division victory would put the Bucs, who are 1-3 in their last four games versus the Falcons, firmly back in the hunt, but a loss would send the team reeling to a 2-6 record.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

What’s At Stake For The Falcons

For the Falcons, Sunday’s trip to Tampa Bay represents an opportunity to pull even at .500 and gain valuable ground in the NFC South race. Atlanta is coming off an impressive 29-20 victory over the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers, a result that could provide the confidence boost this team needs heading into a critical divisional matchup. A victory over  Tampa Bay would improve Atlanta to 4-4 and deliver a significant blow to a division rival trying to climb back into contention. The Falcons also would strengthen their position in a division where every head-to-head result carries added weight.

Offensively, the Falcons have averaged 24.4 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL, while their 139.9 rushing yards per game provide a foundation for controlling the clock. Bijan Robinson has rushed for 704 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. But Tampa Bay presents a difficult challenge with the league’s No. 2 rushing defense, allowing just 77.3 yards per game. The Bucs defense and special teams have combined to record eight takeaways in the last three games and is now plus-1 in the turnover margin, while Atlanta is minus-3.

For Atlanta, the stakes are clear: win on the road, protect the football, establish the running game and stop Tampa Bay’s potent running game. Another victory would put the Falcons, who haven’t loss at Raymond James Stadium since 2022, back at .500 and strengthen their standing in the NFC South.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs Win If…

The Bucs must win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball to beat the Falcons in Week 8. Atlanta presents a much tougher challenge, particularly against the run where the Falcons are only surrendering 88.9 yards per game. Offensively, the Bucs need to establish the ground game early, especially with Baker Mayfield being limited with a healing right thumb. Bucky Irving and the offensive line must find ways to create running lanes, use misdirection and keep Atlanta’s defense guessing. Sustained drives would help control the clock and create manageable third downs. Mayfield must protect the ball and capitalize on opportunities through the air.

Defensively, stopping Bijan Robinson is priority No. 1. Atlanta averages 139.9 rushing yards per game, making this a strength-on-strength matchup. The Bucs must tackle well and prevent Robinson from breaking explosive runs. They also need to pressure quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Tampa Bay has recorded 10 sacks over its last two games, and Atlanta has allowed sacks on nearly 8% of pass plays. Finally, the Bucs must account for tight end Kyle Pitts, who has six career scores against Tampa Bay.

Limit Atlanta’s ground attack, contain Pitts and keep him out of the end zone, pressure Penix and finish drives, and Tampa Bay can secure yet another crucial NFC South victory.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Falcons Win If…

The Falcons must win the battle in the trenches and take advantage of Tampa Bay’s weaknesses to leave Raymond James Stadium with a critical NFC South victory in Week 8. Offensively, Atlanta must establish Bijan Robinson early as the Falcons rank sixth in rushing efficiency. Atlanta needs to use motion, outside runs and misdirection to create space for Robinson and keep the Bucs’ pass rush from pinning its ears back. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. must also connect with Drake London downfield and find tight end Kyle Pitts, who has a history of big performances against Tampa Bay.

Defensively, the Falcons must contain Tampa Bay’s ground game and force the Bucs to beat Atlanta through the air. The Bucs have the league’s third-best running game, but rank dead last in passing yards at 150.4 yards per game. Winning that matchup would force Tampa Bay into predictable passing situations. The Falcons also must pressure Baker Mayfield, disrupt his timing and capitalize on mistakes. Tampa Bay has struggled offensively at times, averaging just 296.9 total yards per game.

Protect the football, control the line of scrimmage and finish drives. If Atlanta executes in all three phases, it can earn a valuable road win and strengthen its position in the NFC South race.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson and Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Running Game vs. Falcons Run Defense

Bucky Irving is enjoying a big bounce-back season this year, rushing for 558 yards (4.7 avg.) with four rushing touchdowns. He’s coming off his second 100-yard game of the year last week in Carolina and is the focal point of Tampa Bay’s offense. Irving powers the league’s third-ranked rushing attack that averages 146.4 yards per game, but it will be a challenge going up against a Falcons defense that ranks fourth in the league, allowing only just 88.9 yards per game on the ground.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have to run for 258 yards again this week, and likely won’t, as Carolina’s run defense is the worst in the league. But if the Bucs could run the ball for half that amount – 125 yards – on Sunday that could provide a struggling Tampa Bay with enough balance to take some pressure off an ineffective and inefficient passing game. Wide receivers Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are both averaging less than 10 yards per catch, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is still coming back from a dislocated thumb.

Atlanta has two safeties leading the team in tackles in Xavier Watts (44) and Jesse Bates III (40), which is not ideal. The Falcons have gotten really good play from two fast, athletic rookie linebackers in Kendall Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr. Those two have combined for 72 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, two fumble recoveries and an interception. Six-foot-6, 326-pound defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. has 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks and has come into his own this year.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs LBs and DBs vs. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts

While stopping dual-threat running back Bijan Robinson will be the top priority for Todd Bowles and his defense on Sunday, trying to contain tight end Kyle Pitts has to be next on the agenda. In eight career games against Tampa Bay, Pitts, a former first-round draft pick, has recorded 44 catches, 629 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. That’s far and away more production against the Bucs than any other team he’s faced.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts and Bucs CB Kindle Vildor – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Last year in a 29-28 win at Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football, Pitts went off with his best game, catching 11 passes for 166 yards and a career-high three touchdowns to help Atlanta come back from 14 points down with 10 minutes left in regulation. The Bucs have tried to use a combination of linebackers, safeties and nickelbacks against Pitts in the past but to no avail.

At 6-foot-6, 250 pounds with wide receiver speed, Pitts prevents a nightmare matchup for any Bucs defender. Pitts has 20 receptions for 191 yards (9.6 avg.) and four touchdowns this season, but he’s really heating up in the last couple of weeks. Pitts has scored at least one touchdown in each of the last three games. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense has struggled to stop tight ends from scoring touchdowns this year, surrendering five touchdowns in five games with the most recent being a 50-yard score from Panthers tight end Darren Waller.