It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Pt Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs won back-to-back games for the first time in over a year with Sunday’s 16-0 win over the Falcons in a soggy affair at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay got its first home win of the season and set a franchise record with 324 yards on the ground with both Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell rushing for well over 100 yards. Todd Bowles’ defense picked off Michael Penix Jr. four times, held tight end Kyle Pitts to two catches for six yards and prevented Atlanta from rushing for 100 yards as the Bucs improved to 3-5 and 2-0 in the division.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bucs Have Found Their Identity On Offense

It took awhile, but new Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has finally found his offense’s identity. While the modern day NFL game has more than embraced the forward pass, Robinson has all but shunned it in favor of a ground game that has become a juggernaut in recent weeks.

No effective passing game in Tampa Bay? No problem.

So don’t throw it.

Just run the absolute crap out of the ball and lean into the team’s strength, which is an offensive line that has finally gotten its act together and gelled into an absolute weapon capable of pulverizing even top 5 rushing defenses like Atlanta.

Baker Mayfield attempted just three passes – completing none in a downpour – versus the Falcons, while the Bucs ran for a franchise-record 324 yards on a bludgeoning 56 carries, averaging 5.8 yards per carry on Sunday in a 16-0 win. That improved the team’s record to 3-5 and 2-0 in the division. The Bucs are now in second place in the NFC South ahead of the Falcons, who are also 3-5, but 1-2 in the division.

Hey, credit Robinson for not forcing what wasn’t working and leaning heavily into what is – Tampa Bay’s steamroller of a running game.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Robinson has caught a lot of flak for the team’s short-comings in the passing game with an obnoxious amount of screens and short passes, and not using the receivers properly, and that’s been justified. But he was smart enough to recognize the common denominator in Tampa Bay’s two previous wins this year was rushing for over 240 yards per game against awful run defenses with the Cowboys and Panthers – and have the audacity to try to do that again versus the Falcons and their stout run defense.

Of course the rain-soaked conditions at Raymond James Stadium would put any team’s passing game at peril, and quarterback Baker Mayfield was still coming off his dislocated thumb injury, so why not?

Rushing for over 240 yards is a crazy statistic – an insane, unsustainable stat, right?

Yet it’s happened three times in the last four games – starting with 241 yards at Dallas in Week 5 and 258 yards at Carolina in Week 7. Crossing 300 yards versus a much better defense with Atlanta was just absurd – yet it proves that it can be done on a regular basis now, as Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell both established new career highs with 170 and 140 yards, respectively.

The Falcons entered Sunday’s game with the league’s fourth-ranked rushing defense, allowing just 88.9 yards per game. Irving had over 100 yards at halftime, as the offensive line, tight ends and wide receivers were absolute bullies and took the fight to the Falcons all day long.

Jeff Ulbrich’s Atlanta defense got it’s ass kicked – bad – all day long.

The Bucs entered Sunday’s game as the league’s third-ranked running game with 1,025 yards on the ground, averaging 146.4 yards per game. After running roughshod over Atlanta, that number swelled to 1,349 yards, an average of 168.6 yards per game. Tampa Bay now has the league’s top-ranked rushing attack.

The Bears are up next on Sunday Night Football in Chicago. Ben Johnson has the league’s second-best ground game behind the Bucs, averaging 154.3 yards per game. And it’s notable that Chicago’s run defense, which just added Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons via a trade, has the NFL’s fourth-ranked rushing defense, allowing an average of 87.6, heading into Monday Night Football.

Can Robinson’s bully ball offense continue to be successful on the ground in Chicago? Hey, the Bucs ran for 241 yards the last time they were in prime time in Dallas, so why not?

Bucs offensive line – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

STATEMENT 2. Bucs Have Found Their Identity On Defense

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said he needed he some ballhawks on defense heading into the 2025 offseason. His defense had recorded a paltry seven interceptions during the 2024 season, which was unacceptable. General manager Jason Licht drafted a pair of ballhawking cornerbacks Jacob Parrish, who has turned into an absolute star, and Benjamin Morrison.

This past offseason, Bowles said he needed more size and physicality up front to help stop the run and get after the quarterback on passing downs. Licht responded by revamping the front seven by adding defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, outside linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad and inside linebacker Alex Anzalone in free agency and drafting outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr., inside linebacker Josiah Trotter and nickelback Keionte Scott in the first four rounds.

Those veteran newcomers have totaled four sacks, five interceptions and a forced fumble this year, while the rookies have combined for three sacks and a pick-six with Trotter leading the team with 68 tackles – 25 more than the next defender.

Those additions have reshaped Bowles’ defense into an aggressive unit that absolutely stuffs the run, stifles the pass, and is intercepting quarterbacks at an incredibly rapid rate. All three of those facets were on display against the Falcons in a 16-0 shutout win in a torrential rain game.

Bucs ILBs Alex Anzalone and Josiah Trotter and CB Jacob Parrish and Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bijan Robinson and the Falcons run game was held to just 99 yards, while Michael Penix Jr. completed just 8-of-24 passes for 124 yards with a career-high four interceptions and a passer rating of just 12. To put those awful number in perspective, Baker Mayfield was 0-for-3 for zero yards and finished with a 39.6 QB rating.

Bowles’ defense is not just a top-5 unit when it comes to stopping the run. It’s become a complete defense that excels in all areas like never before seen since Bowles arrived as the play-caller in 2019.

Even during the fabled 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Bucs pass defense only ranked 21st in the league. Now the Bucs have a top 10 defense in all four of the major categories.

Scoring defense: ranked 6th – 18.9 points per game
Total defense: ranked 3rd – 285.9 yards per game
Run defense: ranked 2nd – 80 yards per game
Pass defense: ranked 9th – 205.9 yards per game

Oh, and by the way, Tampa Bay leads the NFL with 12 interceptions.

Bucs CBs Jacob Parrish and Zyon McCollum – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

The Bucs have now intercepted at least one pass in each of the last six games. While Zyon McCollum and Parrish each recorded their second interceptions of the season, it was inside linebacker Alex Anzalone who recorded two interceptions of Penix on Sunday to wrestle away the team lead from Robinson – of all people – who came into the game with a team-leading pair of picks.

Tampa Bay is on pace to record 29 interceptions this year. Bowles’ defense notched only 13 last year, and the most his defense has recorded was 17 during the 2021 season. Tampa Bay’s franchise record is 31, which came in the 2002 Super Bowl season.

After recording five sacks in each of the past two games, Tampa Bay didn’t sack Penix, but Robinson, Bain and David Walker applied a lot of pressure and helped Atlanta finish a woeful 0-of-12 on third downs on Sunday.

There’s not one single thing this Bucs defense can’t do well, and it’s playing with a ton of confidence right now.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Are The Bucs The Team To Beat In The NFC South?

Yes. Sunday’s win over Atlanta actually put Tampa Bay in the driver’s seat in the division – for now. Even at 3-5, the Bucs are 2-0 in the division with the 3-4 Panthers now at 1-1 in the NFC South and the Falcons at 1-2 in the division.

Through the first eight games of the 2026 NFL season, there is not a single team with a winning record in the NFC South, which is why I affectionately refer to this division as “crap hill.” Yet, the fact that the NFC South is notoriously bad every year is certainly to Tampa Bay’s benefit right now after the team’s woeful 0-4 start to the season.

Nine victories probably wins the division this year after Carolina won it in 2025 with an 8-9 record, edging out a pair of other 8-9 teams in Tampa Bay and Atlanta due to a tiebreaker. In order for the Bucs to reach 9-8, they’ll need to finish 6-3 in the remaining nine games.

That might be a tall ask, but Tampa Bay has won three out of its last four games and certainly seems to be playing with some momentum right now in all three phases of the game.

QUESTION 2. Can The Bucs Actually Pass The Ball If They Have To?

I think so, but I don’t know so.

No Bucs quarterback has thrown for more than 218 yards in any game this year, including Baker Mayfield in the first three games of the year when he was healthy.

Tampa Bay came into Sunday’s game with the league’s worst-ranked passing game, and only got worse after Mayfield went 0-of-3 passing in the downpour. The Bucs are averaging just 131.4 yards per game through the air, but they haven’t had to throw the ball at all in their last two convincing wins over the Panthers and the Falcons.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

So what happens if the running game falters and doesn’t run for 200 yards per game, or the Bucs fall behind and have to pass it? Has Robinson revamped the passing attack behind the scenes since earlier in the season when he was calling an abundance of screen passes that went nowhere and ridiculously short passing routes for the receivers?

Is Tampa Bay’s offense just completely one-dimensional where if the team can’t run the ball successfully it can’t win? Stay tuned. There will be some games where the Bucs will have to throw the ball to win, and Mayfield will have to prove he’s worth that $55 million per year actually throwing the ball rather than simply turning around and handing it off to Bucky Irving.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS QUESTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Jason Licht Stands Pat At The Trade Deadline

As I said a few weeks ago, if Tampa Bay went 0-2 against Carolina and Atlanta, I suspected general manager Jason Licht would do something he’s never done before, which was become a seller at the NFL trade deadline. If the Bucs went 1-1 during that stretch he would face a dilemma about whether to trade away some talented players for 2027 draft capital and salary cap space or stand pat.

But I also said that if the 1-5 Bucs somehow won their next two games and improved to 2-0 in the division, Licht would likely not making any deals at the trade deadline, which is Nov. 10 during the bye week. That actually happened, and Tampa Bay is now 3-5 and firmly in the hunt for the division title in the downtrodden NFC South. At this point, I would be surprised if Licht dealt any players at the deadline.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Beat The Bears On Sunday Night Football

Hey, why not? I’m now a believer in the Buccaneers rushing attack – a big believer. The Falcons came in with the league’s fourth-ranked run defense and got mowed down for over 300 yards on Sunday. Atlanta’s run defense looked even worse than either Carolina’s or Dallas’ – both of which gave up over 240 yards on the ground. Up next is Chicago, which is currently ranked fourth in run defense in the league.

The Bucs have already proved they can win a primetime road game, beating the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. The Bears are a formidable team at 5-2, but this band of pewter pirates is playing with a lot of confidence on both sides of the ball. Winning the turnover battle is huge, as Tampa Bay is 3-0 in games in which that’s happened this year. If that happens again like I think it will, the Bucs can pull off an upset in Chicago and enter the bye week on a three-game winning streak with a 4-5 record – and possibly be atop the NFC South.