The Bucs have reached the midway point of their 17-game regular season. Tampa Bay, sitting at 3-6, has a bye in Week 10 and when they return, face another daunting task in going up against the 6-2 Detroit Lions and their prolific offense led by quarterback Jared Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Remarkably, despite dropping six one-score games in excruciating fashion, these Bucs are still very much in the thick of it when it comes to the NFC South. In fact, the Saints (3-5) and Falcons (3-6) look to have already begun waving the white flag. Monday, Atlanta traded All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars. Shortly after, New Orleans dealt defensive tackle Davon Godchaux to Jacksonville.

The Bucs, meanwhile, stood pat at the trade deadline. They are going to make a run at winning the division for the fifth time in six years, which would see them host a home playoff game in the Wild Card Round. But if the Bucs are going to get to seven, eight, or even nine wins – the likely range it would take to win the NFC South – they need more from several key players.

Let’s take a look at five of them whose performance will make or break the second half of the Bucs’ 2026 season.

QB Baker Mayfield

Let’s start with the obvious. You can’t sugarcoat it any longer; Baker Mayfield isn’t playing good ball and hasn’t for some time. Sure, you could say the injuries affected him down the stretch in 2025, but the results weren’t any better in the first three games of the 2026 campaign before Mayfield dislocated his right thumb near the end of the Week 3 defeat to the Vikings. Dating back to Week 1o of last season, the Bucs are 4-11 in games Mayfield has started. In two of those victories – Week 7 and Week 8 of this season – Mayfield threw a combined 14 passes and completed seven of them.

For a quarterback fresh off signing a three-year, $165 million deal before the season began, a stat line of three passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 60.6% passing, and a 31.7 QBR – 30th among 31 qualified quarterbacks – is simply unacceptable. Even worse, the film shows a player still dropping his eyes at the first sign of pressure, not allowing routes to properly develop, and forcing things that aren’t there. Those “magical moments” we saw in 2023, 2024, and in parts of 2025 have dried up. Instead, Mayfield is making bad decision after bad decision.

Bears DE Austin Booker and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of course, he isn’t being helped one bit by his offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, nor is there a go-to target in this offense on the other side of the Mike Evans era. But when you’re getting paid the way Mayfield is, the expectation is that you elevate the entire operation and maximize your situation. So far, Mayfield hasn’t been able to do that.

Right now, it looks like general manager Jason Licht made an epic blunder by caving in and giving Mayfield a new contract after the two sides had reached an impasse. The Bucs are tied to Mayfield for the immediate future, and they better hope his play trends upwards in the second half of the season. It’s nice that Tampa Bay has developed an elite running game and has a defense creating takeaways. But without a competent passing attack and quality quarterback play, the odds of winning the NFC South are slim.

WR Emeka Egbuka

What has happened to Emeka Egbuka? The former Ohio State Buckeye started his NFL career strong, tallying 25 receptions for 445 yards and five touchdowns in the first five games of the 2025 season. Included in that was a seven-catch, 163-yard performance in a win over the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Since then, Egbuka has just one 100-yard game and has recorded 64 yards or less in every other contest.

Injuries, as head coach Todd Bowles pointed out Monday, have been a factor. There have been occasions this season where he’s been open and Mayfield has missed him. When the ball has come his way, it’s often been behind the line of scrimmage in the screen game. At times, Egbuka has failed to make the tough catches you expect of the 19th overall pick.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

All of that is true. It doesn’t change the fact that Tampa Bay needs him to step up and Robinson needs to do a better job of getting him involved in meaningful ways. Thirty-one catches on 54 targets for 278 yards (9.0 yards per reception) isn’t going to suffice from your supposed WR1.

When you combine that with what Matthew Golden and Luther Burden III are doing in Green Bay and Chicago, respectively, the next two receivers taken after Egbuka in last year’s draft, you start to see why Egbuka still has much to prove.

WR Chris Godwin Jr.

Honestly, you could copy and paste much of what was said about Egbuka’s lack of production and apply it to Godwin. The difference here is, at least, Godwin is still getting it done as a blocker in the run game. But now in the second year of a three-year, $66 million contract and holding the title of being the second best wideout in Bucs history, Godwin’s usage this season has been stunning.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Godwin has been targeted just 38 times, hauling in 29 passes for 259 yards and no touchdowns. He’s become an afterthought in the offense, and it’s befuddling to everyone watching, as well as Godwin himself.

“It’s definitely been interesting, different than anything I’ve been through in my career,” Godwin said last month of his role in the offense. “… I’m trying to stick to the process and make sure I’m where I need to be.”

If the Bucs want to establish their passing attack once and for all, actually getting Godwin involved would be a start.

DT Vita Vea

Admittedly, it does seem silly to be asking for a 31-year-old defensive tackle with a long sample size of great play under his belt to prove himself. But like Godwin, the contract here is doing a ton of heavy lifting.

Bucs DTs A’Shawn Robinson, Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Vea is now making money comparable to that of Dexter Lawrence and Jeffery Simmons. Both of those players are game-wreckers; Vea has been anything but in 2026. Yes, Tampa Bay has the No. 1 run defense in the NFL and Vea is essential to that. However, I think it’s fair to be wanting more from Vea as a pass rusher.

Vea has just one sack in nine games, to go along with 16 pressures and four quarterback hits. According to Pro Football Focus, his 57.8 pass rush grade ranks 86th among 125 defensive linemen. Vea has played better in recent weeks and he did sit out for all of training camp after requesting a trade, so you can definitely sell me on him performing at his peak in the second half of the season; we just have to see it.

OLB Yaya Diaby

Yaya Diaby is currently playing out the final year of his rookie deal. Before the season, it seemed plausible that he could push for double-digit sacks and parlay that into an extension that pays him $25-30 million annually.

Diaby has just three sacks in 2026 and all of those came in the 43-13 win over the Panthers in Week 7. Now, the 27-year-old is dealing with a Grade 2 MCL sprain that caused him to miss Week 9 in Chicago. Bowles did seem optimistic Monday that Diaby could return to practice next week ahead of the Week 11 matchup against the Lions.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Whenever Diaby returns, he’ll have plenty to prove entering the final stretch before he becomes a free agent. I’m not convinced the Bucs have an appetite to pay up to retain Diaby with the continued emergence of Rueben Bain Jr. and David Walker. Some team out there will, but the numbers could be far different than initially thought if his production stays status quo.

As much as his play turning a corner over the final eight games would benefit the Bucs, it would also help his chances of securing a big payday in the offseason.