In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: The Bucs’ Passing “Attack”

The Bucs haven’t seen a passing offense this bad in over a decade. Jameis Winston was a turnover machine, but he could move the ball. Over Baker Mayfield’s tenure in Tampa Bay the offense has typically had an above average passing offense, running as high as fourty in 24th and as low as 23rd last year. But this year they have bottomed out to dead last this year.

There is no single issue plaguing the team. At the start of the year the offensive line struggled to pick up stunts, resulting in quick pressures bearing down on quarterback Baker Mayfield. That has largely improved and since Week 5 Tampa Bay is allowing pressure at a top 10 rate.

Mayfield, for his part, has been part of the problem. His 31.6% pressure-to-sack rate is easily the worst in the NFL, a full four points higher than J.J. McCarthy and almost six points higher than Winston himself. Mayfield isn’t getting any help from his receivers. At 19%, they have the highest drop rate of catchable balls in the NFL.

To top it all off, the offensive design has been questionable to say the least. The Bears game was a rough watch from a passing standpoint.

Questionable Playcalling

Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has struggled to find plays that work for his roster. And even when he’s finding good personnel groupings, the way he is using them is curious at best.

I don’t quite understand the reasoning here from Zac Robinson. Come out in 13P (I like it! – they’ve run well in 13 this year).

But then split Bucky wide and advertise you aren’t going to run. So, then it’s a matchup advantage you are looking for? And that’s Otton vs. Bush? https://t.co/r6p0txGFcP

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) November 11, 2026

There are spacing issues in route concepts, especially in the red zone. Take a look at the breaks on this red zone play near the end of the first half. At the top of the screen you can see both Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka breaking inside at extremely close proximity to each other.

QB and Receivers Not On The Same Page

When the play calls work the offense still suffers due to communication/timing errors between Mayfield and his receivers. On option routes he sees things different from the receiver. Timing issues have plagued the group in general, and there are moments where receivers just aren’t where Mayfield expects them to be.

Personnel, motion play action all work together to get Godwin isolated vs C3. Looks like Baker is expecting curl and Godwin runs Dig. https://t.co/UD7cx94rjk

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) November 12, 2026

And when they are on the same page, Mayfield can’t trust his receivers to make the catch.

Hurst spins Stevenson completely around and just…drops it. SMH. https://t.co/7drBE10peP

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) November 12, 2026

This drop led to Ted Hurst III, who played just one snap, getting benched for the rest of the game. Tez Johnson had a similar gaffe later in the second quarter where his deep out would have picked up a key conversion on third down, but he allowed the ball to bounce off his cradle for an incompletion. Johnson wasn’t benched.

Baker Mayfield’s Struggles

Mayfield is also playing at a very low level right now. His 3.09 average time to throw is easily the longest of his career. Mayfield is looking for his first read, and if it’s not there he plays hero ball, scrambling, extending and trying to improvise on the spot. Sometimes it works, but more often than not it’s turning into a negative play (sack).

Looking at all plays where Mayfield leaves the pocket this season, Mayfield has a -0.461 EPA/play. That spans 41 plays including 10 runs, 12 sacks and 19 throws according to Sumer Sports.

That process, or lack thereof, is causing Mayfield to miss open routes later in the progression. It’s also allowing opposing defenders to jump his initial read, leading to turnovers, such as two interceptions at Chicago, including a costly pick-six in the second half.

Locks on his first read. Doesn’t look off the safety. https://t.co/pNEKn6KUTe

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) November 12, 2026

Mayfield’s second interception was very similar to the first. He decided on who he was throwing to pre-snap. Didn’t process new information mid-play and missed a pinching defender. In both instances there was a middle of the field dig route he could have worked to.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Robinson’s play designs and sequencing are an issue, no doubt. But in my estimation the quarterback play is issue number one. If Mayfield can’t move past his first read, if he can’t stay in the pocket and make a throw under fire, if he can’t operate like a franchise quarterback, everything else is a moot point at this stage.

Perhaps he and Robinson can figure it out during the bye week. I’m skeptical at best.

Finance: The Trade Deadline Prices Were Expensive

The Bucs stood pat at the tradeline. Unlike the division rival Falcons, they did not turn into sellers. Many of the players we speculated might be on the move when the team started 0-4 – Chris Godwin Jr., Yaya Diaby, Antoine Winfield Jr., Calijah Kancey, Cody Mauch and Kenny Gainwell – all remained with the organization.

But the Bucs didn’t turn into buyers either. There was no deal for a starting X receiver. No additions to the defense either. Tampa Bay did what they do just about every trade deadline. They remained committed to the plan they had at the beginning of the season.

I would have understood if they tried to move some expiring contracts for Day 3 picks. Payne Durham is a good blocking tight end who should get a solid contract next year – likely elsewhere. The Bucs can also replace his impact to a high degree by playing Bauer Sharp and Ko Kieft more. If the team opted to move Gainwell, I would have been fine with it, as I see Sean Tucker as a solid change of pace back, even if he is more limited, especially in the passing game.

I also see why the team held firm on not acquiring another piece. I mentioned in a previous Cover 4 column that I expected the team to not be active at the deadline. The assets required for deadline trades is cost prohibitive. A second- and a fifth-round pick were required for half a season of safety Jessie Bates III. Bates is a hell of a player. But the limited control made that a very steep price to pay.

Defensive tackle Jordan Davis, a perfectly capable, but hardly a star player, went for a first- and a second-round pick. He’s not even on a cost-controlled deal. The Jaguars gave up eight to nine years of starter-caliber talent at below market prices for the right to pay Davis like a high-end tackle for slightly above average play.

Even the Keenan Allen trade was too expensive in my estimation (the 49ers moved a sixth-round pick for the 34-year old Allen).

I don’t hate the idea of some of those trades for the teams that made them. Jacksonville and San Francisco are two of the front-runners for the Lombardi Trophy. The Bucs just aren’t on that level. And as such, paying a premium for rentals, or over-priced talent just does not make sense for where they are on the win curve at 3-6.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The draft assets Tampa Bay held on to are more valuable to the organization than any potential piece they could have swung a deal for. And the issues they need to address go beyond a player pickup.

Until the passing game improves at play-caller and quarterback, it’s difficult to assess the receiver talent and any possible contributions.

Forecast: The Bucs Will Make The Playoffs

Coming off of a loss that dropped the Bucs to 3-6, projecting them to make the playoffs seems like a fool’s errand. But such is life in the NFL South, where the 3-5 Panthers sit atop the division. Looking across the division, Tampa Bay is primed to finish the season in first place – with a losing record. Following a bye week that will help quarterback Baker Mayfield see his injured thumb continue to improve they will enter the back half of the season with a favorable schedule.

Following their Week 11 matchup against a very good Lions team they will cross paths with the 3-5 Panthers, winless Chargers, a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, 3-6 Saints, 3-6 Falcons that just sold off their star safety and starting center, the Rams who have been ravaged by injuries, before finishing with the Saints again in Week 18 – and Tampa Bay plays them better in New Orleans for some reason.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

I’m not saying look for the Bucs to go on some historic run, but I am saying they have an easy road to hoe in a division where they are tied for the lead in wins. And at 2-0 in divisional play, they are firmly in the driver seat for the NFC South crown.

Despite the obvious flaws surrounding the team’s passing attack, there are several measures that point to the Bucs being better going forward. Bad teams get blown out and score fewer points than their opponents. Point differential has time and again proven to be one of the best indicators for future record.

The Bucs are currently 13th in the NFL with a +24-point differential with two wins of two scores or more. Based on their points scored and points allowed, their expected record at the end of the season is 8-9. Applying the same method to the rest of the division the Panthers and Saints are expected to go 7-10, with the Falcons bringing up the rear at 6-11.

It won’t be pretty. It will be reminiscent of 2022. But look for the Bucs to win the division and play in the postseason at Raymond James Stadium.

Fun Fourth Down: The Bungles

I’m not one to typically make fun of others, but sometimes people bring it on themselves. That was never more apparent than the Bengals – Eagles deadline trade that almost was. Let me explain.

Cincinnati was looking to improve the depth of its pass rush as the team is looking to make a playoff run. The Eagles, now firmly in reset/rebuild mode after a string of injuries were looking to offload spare parts for draft pick volume. The two came to an agreement that would have Philadelphia send edge rusher Arnold Ebeketie to the Bengals in exchange for a sixth-round pick.

The deal was so close to being done, all of the NFL Insiders got the text to announce it at around 11 am on Tuesday, with the trade deadline arriving at 4 pm.

BREAKING: The #Bengals are finalizing a trade to acquired DE Arnold Ebeketie from the #Eagles, per sources.

Cincinnati has been in the market for pass-rush help and they now bolster their defense https://t.co/EEesX4dJRt

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) November 10, 2026

This caused a big problem for the Bengals. One they apparently did not realize. If not for an NFL analyst in the public space this would have cost Cincinnati a third-round pick in addition to the pick they were set to ship to Philly.

The NFL has a convoluted formula for calculating compensation picks each year. It involves the number of qualifying free agents a team adds versus how many they lose, the APY of the contracts each qualifying free agent signs for, and how much those players play.

Nick Korte of Over The Cap is the leading analyst in the public domain in keeping track of this formula. He is so good he can sometimes catch mistakes the league makes in applying their own formula, as he did in 2022 when he found a league error that almost resulted in the Bengals losing out on a third-round compensatory pick. Well, with regards to the Ebeketie, Korte was once again out here saving Duke Tobin and Mike Brown’s backsides.

Roughly half an hour after the trade was announced Korte noted the transaction would likely cost the Bengals a third-round comp pick they were set to earn in 2027 for the loss of Trey Hendrickson.

Arnold Ebiketie was signed as a compensatory free agent by the Eagles.

The Bengals lost 3 CFAs and signed 2 (Cordell Volson not qualifying), thus while they gain a 2027 6th rounder, they lose a 2027 3rd round comp pick that was via Trey Hendrickson going to Baltimore.

— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) November 10, 2026

The post picked up steam and must have gotten back to the Bengals’ brain trust, because at roughly 12:15 pm it was announced the trade was off.

BREAKING: Plot twist! The #Bengals and #Eagles deal for DE Arnold Ebiketie has fallen through and will not happen, per sources.

The trade falling through is not physical or performance related, per sources. https://t.co/DVB6815cTr

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) November 10, 2026

There are several things that make this whole situation ridiculous. It all starts with the fact that a multi-billion-dollar league like the NFL that doesn’t have a central database that tracks the compensatory market that all teams have access to. The formula itself is complicated, so leaving it up to teams to try and figure it out on their own is less than ideal to begin with. A college intern could create this rather easily. With the advent of AI, vibe-coding it is pretty simple.

Beyond that, it is obvious that left to their own devices, the Bengals, who have a notoriously small and cheap player personnel department are not doing a good job of calculating how the formula effects them, if they are doing it at all. For a team to almost make a multi-million-dollar mistake and be bailed out by Korte, not once, but twice now, is embarrassing for them and hilarious for everyone else.