The Bucs find themselves in a weird position nine weeks into the 2026 season.

At 3-6, Tampa Bay would be all but eliminated from playoff contention in any other division. The woeful NFC South has kept the Bucs alive, as they sit just a half-game behind the first-place Panthers and Saints, who are both 3-5.

The NFC South has developed a reputation as the NFL’s worst division, and that could be the Bucs’ saving grace as they look to make a playoff push in the second half of the season. Yet they are also in position for a premium draft pick, currently holding the seventh overall selection in the 2027 NFL Draft if the season ended today.

With the franchise’s direction already dividing the fan base in recent years, the rest of 2026 could prove pivotal for the organization. Will they continue fighting to remain competitive, or will another disappointing season force them to hit the reset button?

Bucs Face Tough Week 11 Test, But Schedule Gets Easier From There

The Bucs have shown enough resolve to hang against any opponent. They gave the 6-2 Bears a scare on Sunday night before falling short 27-24. What nine games have made clear is that Tampa Bay isn’t a team lacking talent — it lacks execution.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Each of the team’s six losses have been by less than a touchdown. That has made for plenty of late-game heartbreak, such as blowing double-digit leads against the Browns and Steelers at Raymond James Stadium.

The Bucs have been nearly impossible to figure out this season, looking like a team capable of beating anyone one week and losing to anyone the next. That is why they are in the position they are, residing at a crossroads with a second-half schedule that begins with a tough test. Facing the 6-2 Lions will be another matchup against an NFC North opponent Tampa Bay has grown familiar with under head coach Todd Bowles. Losing to Detroit and falling to 3-7 only digs a deeper hole, but is any team ever out of winning the NFC South?

Regardless of whether the Bucs are 4-6 or 3-7, the rest of the schedule lines up favorably. Of the remaining seven games after Week 11, only one opponent has an above .500 record.

Remaining 2026 Bucs Schedule

Week 11: at Lions (6-2)
Week 12: vs. Panthers (3-5)
Week 13: vs. Chargers (0-8)
Week 14: at Ravens (4-5)
Week 15: vs. Saints (3-5)
Week 16: at Falcons (3-5)
Week 17: vs. Rams (5-4)
Week 18: at Saints (3-5)

At this point, it is the Bucs vs. the Bucs the rest of the way.

Considering that the Falcons and Saints both traded away players for future draft capital before the NFL trade deadline, they did not exactly push their chips “all-in.” With every team in the division sitting at a paltry three wins, it is as up for grabs as it was in Week 1. Tampa Bay could very well go 5-3 or 6-2 down the stretch and finish 8-9 or 9-8 and get a home playoff game.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Bucs fans don’t have to look far back to see how quickly a season can turn around.

In 2023, Tampa Bay went from a promising 3-1 start to a disappointing 4-7 record after losing six of seven games. But the Bucs responded by winning four straight and ultimately finished 9-8, capturing the NFC South title before defeating the Eagles, 32-9, in the Wild Card round.

That remains Todd Bowles’ lone playoff victory as Tampa Bay’s head coach. Could this team rediscover some of that late-season magic in 2026?

Even with an abysmal passing attack and coaching holding the team back at times, the Bucs’ running game and defense have shown they can take over games. As was the case in 2023, the stretch run will be critical for quarterback Baker Mayfield. With his hefty contract comes heightened expectations, but Tampa Bay doesn’t necessarily need him to put the offense on his back. If Mayfield can protect the football, limit costly mistakes and complement the team’s strengths, they could be a tougher playoff opponent than their record suggests.

Bucs’ Inconsistency Could Lead To A Top 2027 Draft Pick

While the Bucs could still reclaim their throne atop what has been coined “crap hill,” landing a top-10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft remains a very real possibility. That outcome has its own appeal, especially considering Tampa Bay’s pressing roster needs and the opportunity to add a potential franchise-altering talent.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Draft season is still months away, but it will be here before you know it.

The Bucs will have plenty of prospects to consider, and securing a higher selection puts them in a better position to land a blue-chip talent. Perhaps that means taking another swing at finding an elite wide receiver, adding a playmaking tight end, bolstering the trenches on either side of the ball or drafting and developing a potential successor to Baker Mayfield.

At this point, all options should be on the table, especially if the team bottoms out and loses winnable games down the stretch. Finishing with five to seven wins could put Tampa Bay in position for a top 10 selection, giving them a better opportunity to address one of their most pressing roster needs.

Now, whether that is best for the franchise depends on a variety of factors. If the Bucs bottom out down the stretch, Todd Bowles would likely be fired. For some fans, the possibility of bringing in a young, offensive-minded head coach would be a victory in itself.

Regardless of what the public perception is on general manager Jason Licht, he isn’t going anywhere and would help find a new head coach and oversee another draft class. Licht hasn’t been immune to mistakes, particularly given his recent track record extending players, but he has also drafted an intriguing collection of young talent over the years.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and assistant GMs Mike Greenberg and Rob McCartney – Photo by: Adam Slivon/PR

This is the path of less certainty, but one with a higher potential payoff.

Imagine pairing Mayfield with a young offensive mind like Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski, then adding another dynamic weapon in the 2027 NFL Draft, perhaps Indiana wide receiver Charlie Becker. Suddenly, the Bucs could have a completely different offensive identity.

That is just one hypothetical scenario, but it’s a far different outlook than bringing Bowles back in 2027, potentially hiring yet another offensive coordinator and entering another season with the same lingering questions about the franchise’s direction.

The Bucs are walking a fine line between competing for the playoffs and positioning themselves for a top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Some fans still believe Tampa Bay can salvage its season, while others are ready to see what is behind door number two. The big question is whether another NFC South title would represent genuine progress or simply delay the changes this franchise needs to make to take the next step.