Baker Mayfield has earned another contract from the Bucs. That is not up for much debate. The debate is whether Tampa Bay should be comfortable paying him what Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence are making – around $55 million per season.

Mayfield has gone on record numerous times about how he and his family have set roots in the city and have enjoyed giving back. While that has been well documented, Mayfield recently drew national headlines after comments he made at a youth football camp he hosted at the AdventHealth Training Center.

“The contract stuff – it’s happening, it’s starting – talks and whatnot,” Mayfield said last week. “Not anywhere close to what we were thinking. Would love to be here long term, but as of right now that’s not exactly the case. But I’m under contract for 2026. The guys in that locker room and the staff know that I’m still going to be me. I’m still going to do everything I can to help this team win a Super Bowl. To me, that’s the priority. Everything else will take care of itself.”

With contract talks now underway, attention has shifted from whether Mayfield will remain in Tampa Bay to what his next contract will look like. That comes with the key question – is it in the Bucs’ best interest to back up the Brinks truck and pay Mayfield what he wants on a new contract?

The Real Question Is Not If The Bucs Pay Baker Mayfield – It Is How Much

At 31 years old, Baker Mayfield is the prime of his NFL career and projects to have another three to five years of high-quality quarterback play left in him, at the very least. His time with the Bucs has been at a bargain rate, as the team signed him to a one-year, prove-it deal in March 2023 before giving him a three-year extension that proved to be a steal at $33.33 million per year.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Scott Reynolds/PR

Since that contract, the quarterback market has boomed to the extent that Mayfield will want a deal reflecting his performance and what other signal-callers have earned with their teams. As it stands, what he is set to make in 2026 puts him right in the middle at 16th for his position. His agent will surely bring up what Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, and Brock Purdy are making on deals that have been inked since 2024. That range falls between $53-60 million, and Tampa Bay would be hard-pressed to do much better than having No. 6 under center long-term.

Mayfield has outperformed just about any expectations placed on him since signing with the Bucs. He has revived his career from a journeyman back into franchise quarterback territory, earning two Pro Bowls and keeping the team competitive post-Tom Brady. With a team searching for an identity, the locker room has rallied behind him and his fiery personality. In turn, that has kept the fan base engaged and enjoying watching what happens next, through the good and the bad.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For those reasons, it would be difficult to justify letting negotiations fall apart. At this point, Mayfield’s camp and the front office have given initial numbers and it is expected they will meet somewhere in the middle.

Among the names listed above, Mayfield slots right into the Prescott/Lawrence/Goff/Purdy mix in terms of talent and production. Through three seasons with the Bucs, Mayfield has thrown for 12,237 yards and 95 touchdowns while earning two Pro Bowl selections and helping lead Tampa Bay to two playoff appearances in 2023 and 2024.

Given the quarterbacks the franchise has had over its 50 seasons, he is well-positioned to shatter all the passing records ahead of him.

The team has struggled to find a long-term answer at the game’s most important position, which is only more reason to stick with someone that has ingrained himself as a core part of what the team is. Finding a franchise quarterback through the draft has historically been easier said than done in Tampa Bay.

• Doug Williams (1978, No. 17 overall)
• Vinny Testaverde (1987, No. 1 overall)
• Trent Dilfer (1994, No. 6 overall)
• Josh Freeman (2009, No. 17 overall)
• Jameis Winston (2015, No. 1 overall)

The Bucs Will Not Let Baker Mayfield Simply Walk Out The Door

While it remains the most likely outcome that Bucs and Baker Mayfield come to terms on a new deal, let us say nothing materializes. What would happen then? Well, Tampa Bay’s next best course of action would be to franchise tag Mayfield for the 2027 season and continue to negotiate.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

They will not just let him walk out the door for nothing, especially given there is no other quarterback that would move the needle as much. Among the free agent quarterbacks next offseason, none of Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, or Deshaun Watson inspires much confidence.

Assuming the team is competitive in the NFC South at worst, their 2027 draft pick will fall outside of the top 15 and will not be good enough to land a top quarterback prospect such as Oregon’s Dante Moore or Texas’ Arch Manning. Would they want to hand the keys to the team to a different rookie? Moving in a different direction has bitten them in the past, such as letting future Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks Doug Williams, Steve Young, and Trent Dilfer leave and reach the pinnacle elsewhere.

The situation that is in front of the organization is finding a way to hammer out a contract, with the deadline being before the start of training camp. If not, Mayfield will be betting on himself to get back to his 2024 level of play, which would only raise the price tag.

One wrinkle that front offices have to weigh with a contract of this magnitude is how the rest of the roster is built. The biggest pending free agent outside of Mayfield is veteran defensive tackle Vita Vea, who could potentially be re-signed for less than his current $17.75 million average annual salary. With Chris Godwin Jr. not having any guaranteed money after this season, the keys to the wide receiver room could be handed over to Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Ted Hurst. Such a move would save another $22 million in cap room.

Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

That opens the door for some cap flexibility to fit in a larger number on the cap sheet, although the Bucs also have to consider giving second contracts to outside linebacker Yaya Diaby and right guard Cody Mauch. Diaby is expected to make in the neighborhood of $20-25 million per year, while Mauch could command close to $15 million per year.

Paying Mayfield an exorbitant amount of money would limit the Bucs’ roster-building flexibility, which is why caution is warranted. He will be 32 years old before the 2027 season and his aggressive play style invites injuries. That comes with risk, and his track record suggests 2024 being an abnormality through eight seasons. Then again, quarterbacks are rarely paid solely for what they have done. More often, teams pay for what they believe those players will do next.

Right now, the strongest case for the Bucs is extending Mayfield at a number closer to $50 million than $60 million.

The Bucs do not need to make Baker Mayfield the highest-paid quarterback in football. They do need to recognize what he has become, which is a top 12 QB in the league.

He is no longer a bridge starter, a reclamation project, or a stopgap after Tom Brady. Mayfield is the face of the franchise and the best quarterback the organization has developed in decades.

The question is not whether he deserves another contract. It is whether he deserves to join the NFL’s $60 million club. Tampa Bay is wise to hesitate, because another season will make this decision much easier.