Safety blankets are a quarterback’s best friend on third down. The go-to guy who can grab a tough bucket in traffic and still keep the chains moving. For the last three years Baker Mayfield has evenly looked to both of his top two receivers in those situations. Despite both missing time due to injury, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. are nearly tied for the team lead in 3rd down targets at 86 and 85, respectively. The two of them accounted for 40% of such targets since 2023.

And the Bucs’ offensive success in those situations was impressive. Godwin caught 68.2% of his third down targets, while averaging 8.53 yards per target and picking up a first down or touchdown 60% of the time. He was as close to automatic as the modern-day NFL gets.

Meanwhile, Evans caught fewer passes (48.8%) but for more yards per catch. Still his success rate was strong by NFL standards at 44.2%, meaning that when he did catch a third down target, it almost always went for a first down.

But with Evans gone and Godwin over 30 and coming off of multiple seasons worth of injuries, Mayfield may need to find new go-to targets on money downs. There are two likely candidates to replace the dynamic duo. One is familiar-ish, while the other is a newcomer. But the concerning part is that they have not been nearly as successful as Evans and Godwin on these crucial targets.

Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka was Baker Mayfield’s favorite target in 2025. That held true in third down situations where Egbuka earned 25% of all third down targets for the season. But the success of the Bucs offense on those targets was not the consistent engine one would hope. Egbuka only caught 13 of his 34 third down targets for 232 yards, averaging 6.82 yards target while securing the first down or touchdown on 29% of his targets.

As a 2025 first round pick, Egbuka is the odds-on favorite to be Baker Mayfield’s #1 option going forward. In order to supplant himself in that role he is going to have to become a more automatic option in these situations. The long-term plan for Tampa Bay has to be that he takes over for Godwin as the slot/option route runner who maintains a high catch rate on third downs, keeping the offense on time and chugging along.

The Bucs have Godwin for 2026 while Egbuka continues to improve in this area.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Kenneth Gainwell

Gainwell was a security blanket for Aaron Rodgers last year, earning targets on 24% of his third down attempts. But many of those attempts were check downs outside of the true play progression or dump offs on 3rd and forever. Gainwell caught 75% of his targets, but for just 144 yards. The Steelers needed an average of 8.3 yards on those targets, but Gainwell’s average gain…well…(sorry I couldn’t help myself) it came to just 4.5 yards. As such, the Steelers success rate (how often they picked up a first down or touchdown) on those plays was just 22%.

Bucs RB Kenneth Gainwell – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Barry Reeger

Part of the Bucs’ prolific success in 2024 was their incredible success rate on third down. As the playmaker room evolves, they need to replace the consistency that Godwin and Evans have provided over the past few seasons. There is a chance Godwin can smooth that transition with improved health and a return to form. But Gainwell and Egbuka are a better bet for the near future. And they will need to level up to get the offense back on track.