Betting the Bucs is a new segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Bucs game during the week. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also take a brief view at the slate of Sunday games around the rest of the league.
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The Line: Bucs -3.5, Over/Under 52
There’s isn’t a more perfect place to discuss betting than Vegas, right? The last look at the lines were the numbers that you see above in the title, but with COVID-19 affecting the Raiders locker room, this has temporarily been taken off the board. Should the lines significantly change, we will adjust accordingly.
While the Bucs did not hit the over last game like I predicted, they were well on their way to getting reaching it until the backups came in after they dominated. Any Bucs fan will take that every day of the week.
Not knowing if the starters on the Raiders’ offensive line will play throws a wrench into the program. What I will tell you, though, is that whether it’s the backups playing or starters who haven’t practiced, the Bucs’ defensive line will be feasting in this game. They were able to get to Aaron Rodgers and they’ll do the same against Derek Carr. Every Raiders game has hit the over, but they haven’t seen a defense like the Bucs, who only grow stronger as their lead gets larger.
The Bucs haven’t played their best on the road this season with matching 1-2 records both in away games and against the spread (ATS) while on the road. With that said, their losses came in Week 1 while still figuring things out and on a Thursday night against a stout Bears’ defense. The lone victory came against a depleted Broncos defense, so facing the Raiders defense will not be a threat. Las Vegas has allowed 30 points per game and just under 400 yards. Tampa Bay has reached 1,000 yards rushing in three straight games and now they have Leonard Fournette back. If Las Vegas plays the run, we’ll be getting some bounce back games from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
So what does his all mean? Tampa Bay will go up big while their defense continues to shut down another high powered offense. Despite going 1-2 ATS on the road, the Bucs are 4-2 in their last six versus the spread in away games. The big indicator that should be pointed out as well is that the Raiders are 1-4 in their last five games ATS, and 0-3 ATS in games coming after a bye, including 0-2 in the new Jon Gruden era. The over looked enticing at 52 with the fact that Vegas has hit in each game, but it takes two to tango for the over, and if the Bucs dominate again, we’re looking at the same scenario as last week.
The Pick: Bucs -3.5
I may not have lost on the Bucs pick last week, but I did go 4-1 on my picks around the rest of the league. Let’s have a look at the board for Week 7 and see if I can keep the hot streak going.
Browns -3 at Bengals
The Browns showed last week that they’re not ready to hang with the contenders yet, but they can handle a team like the Bengals. Cleveland gets back to their rushing success while Myles Garrett and company attack Joe Burrow often.
Bills -13.5 at Jets
After losing two straight big games, the Bills can take out their frustrations on the Jets, who who’s winless record is the same as their record against the spread. I will continue to bet against the Jets until they prove me wrong, no matter how big the line gets.
Packers-Texans Under 57
Both teams can put up points, but 57 is a very steep number. That means you got to come away with points on nearly all of your drives, and I’m confident someone will have a turnover somewhere to stop that.
Broncos +10 vs. Chiefs
The forecast is for snow in this one, which means anything can happen. Divisional games are always the toughest.
Jaguars-Chargers Over 49
Another game where both quarterbacks can let it fly. Justin Herbert doesn’t have much of a run game, so he’ll air it out against a bad Jaguars defense. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew will pass it the whole time because he doesn’t have any other choice.