If there’s ever going to be a time for this Bucs team to pull it together and start some sort of miraculous turnaround after their 1-5 start, it has to be this Sunday at Bank of America Stadium. Tampa Bay, somewhat amazingly, hasn’t played an NFC South opponent through the first six weeks of the season. That changes when Todd Bowles and Co. match up with Dave Canales and the 3-2, division-leading Panthers this Sunday.

Because the Bucs have yet to play an NFC South game, they undeservedly have a lifeline back into the race for what has long been the NFL’s worst division. Carolina, the reigning champions, do have the lead right now at 3-2. But with Atlanta and New Orleans at 2-4 and Tampa Bay at 1-5, this really isn’t settled yet. That means the Bucs have an opportunity to get themselves back into the mix, and that opportunity starts this Sunday.

An improbable win for the Bucs over the Panthers and their high-scoring offense would suddenly mean only one game of separation between the two teams in the win column. Then, consider that Tampa Bay matches up with Atlanta at Raymond James Stadium in Week 8. Another win in that game would see the Buccaneers hit 3-5 with a 2-0 record against opponents within the division. Just like that, things could get interesting. That’s something Bowles and his coaches will be clinging to this week as they try to get their guys prepared after yet another crushing one-score loss at home this past Sunday.

There’s plenty still ahead for Tampa Bay, but only if it manages to get the job done this weekend with a victory over Carolina. Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield appears set to make his return to action after missing the last three games with a dislocated thumb, and he couldn’t be coming back at a better time. Right?

Off the back of a more general preview Thursday morning, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this Week 7 game between the last two NFC South champions:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Panthers Matchup?

Perhaps the biggest factor in this Sunday’s game is just how healthy and effective Baker Mayfield is in his first game back from the dislocated right thumb that cost him three weeks. If Mayfield shows no ill effects from the injury or the protective glove he’s wearing on his throwing hand, the Bucs offense should presumably benefit from a big boost with its starting quarterback and leader back in the fold.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN – Jim Dedmon

Then again, there are two complicating factors in play here. For one, Mayfield struggled over the first three games of the season even when he was healthy. It’s not as if the issues with Zac Robinson and this offense began because Jalon Daniels as under center. This offense was stuck in neutral even under Mayfield’s direction — particularly against Cleveland and Minnesota. The veteran signal-caller will have to be much better in his return to action.

The other factor in play here? Robinson himself. Even if Mayfield is at his best — playing within himself, protecting the football and hitting the open throws — what’s the ceiling with this offense? The short game hasn’t worked. Emeka Egbuka may miss Sunday’s game, but can Robinson find a way to get Chris Godwin Jr. involved more and give him some more depth to his routes? What about Ted Hurst III? If the answer is no, it doesn’t matter that Mayfield is back. This offense — in its current form — has a very low ceiling.

Where the Bucs need to find success in order to win this game is with their run game. The Panthers come in with the 27th-ranked run defense in the NFL, and the Bucs’ only win came when they got a lot out of Bucky Irving and their rushing attack against the Cowboys. If Tampa Bay can run it in this game, that should only help Mayfield in his first game in a month.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: IMAGN – Bob Donnan

Defensively for the Bucs, whether they can sustain the level of success they got from their pass rush in Week 6 will be a big decider in this NFC South opener. Tampa Bay racked up five sacks and 26 total pressures against Pittsburgh in an effort led by David Walker (five pressures, two sacks). If the front can affect Bryce Young — and if Todd Bowles can deploy the right pressure packages in the right moments — it could help the Bucs hold this high-scoring Panthers offense in check.

On the Panthers’ side of things, so much of this game — as is the case most weeks — will come down to Young. The 2023 No. 1 overall pick has really found his stride under Dave Canales and Brad Idzik. He’s the main reason why Carolina is top five in scoring, top two in total offense and leading the league in passing. Young has thrown for 610 yards and four touchdowns to no interceptions over the Panthers’ last two games — both wins — and if he keeps balling out this Sunday and gets the better of the Bucs defense, it’ll be hard for the Bucs offense to keep up.

What Young has done so well is spread the ball around. Tetairoa McMillan — the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year — is his No. 1 receiver. That much is clear, as McMillan leads the team with 48 targets, 32 catches and 471 yards. But Jalen Coker is off to a great start in his own right with 24 catches on 35 targets for 319 yards and two scores of his own. Tight ends Darren Waller and Tommy Tremble both have two touchdowns themselves, as does running back Chuba Hubbard.

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

Speaking of Hubbard, the Panthers are much better off as an offense when they can get something out of Hubbard and the run game. But the Bucs stop the run better than everyone in the league outside of the Jaguars, so it could be tough sledding this Sunday. Can Carolina get anything out of its run game against this Tampa Bay defense? If not, that’s a lot to put on Young.

The Panthers defense hasn’t been quite as impressive as the offense has been, but that unit has played much better ever since allowing 59 points against the Bears to open the season. The pass rush has underwhelmed, though, and that can’t be the story this Sunday if the home team wants to keep the Buccaneers offense as ineffective as it’s been for the first six weeks of the season.

Not only will a better day out of the pass rush affect the quarterback and the overall flow of the Tampa Bay offense — it could also lead to mistakes from Mayfield, who turned the ball over five times in the first three games of the season. The Bucs have lost the turnover battle in four of their five losses this season. They broke even in the other loss and won the only game this season in which they won the turnover battle. That will be key this Sunday in Charlotte.

Key Players To Watch

Seriously, it’s either time for the Bucs to properly utilize Chris Godwin Jr. or it’s time for the Bucs to free Chris Godwin Jr. The longest-tenured player on Tampa Bay’s roster shouldn’t be an afterthought in this offense. He should have more than 30 targets in six games. His yards per catch average should be higher than 9.4. And he shouldn’t still be searching for his first touchdown of the year. Yet… That’s where things stand. Can something change this Sunday?

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

On the Buccaneers defense, David Walker remains one of the most impressive performers week in and week out — no matter how few snaps he gets or how much Todd Bowles continues to move the goal posts on what he needs to do to play more. Walker has the best pass rush grade on the team, leads the defense in pressures (14) and sacks (four) and has a run defense grade of 74.9 that is plenty respectable. He’s outplaying every other outside linebacker and needs to be a heavier fixture in the rotation.

Tetairoa McMillan is the main man for the Panthers offense, and he’ll look to be a focal point again against the Bucs this weekend. He’s only been shut down in one game this year — a two-catch, 17-yard performance in Week 3 against the Browns. Outside of that? He had 75 yards in Week 1, 101 in Week 2, 192 (with two touchdowns) in Week 4 and 86 last week. He played well against Tampa Bay last year, and it’ll be on Zyon McCollum to hold him in check this time around.

Linebacker Devin Lloyd has been a huge addition for Carolina’s defense this year. After signing a three-year, $42 million deal this offseason, he’s played in four games thus far and has two sacks, four tackles for loss, two interceptions and a defensive touchdown. Lloyd’s ability to make a splash play could become a problem at any moment for this Buccaneers offense.