It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Pt Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs finally won a close game – and in primetime! – beating the Cowboys in Dallas on Thursday Night Football, 24-16. Rookie Jalon Daniels played great in his second start (will he get another?), as Bucky Irving ran wild and Tampa Bay’s defense and special teams combined for three takeaways to help the team to its first win of the season. The Bucs are now 1-4 and can enjoy their mini-bye week prior to playing the Steelers at home in Week 6.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bucs Have A Big Decision To Make At QB

I’m not trying to start a quarterback controversy in Tampa Bay, so don’t get it twisted.

Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite a rough start to the 2026 season from Mayfield and continued uneven play from last year’s 8-9 season, he is the franchise quarterback in red and pewter. His three-year, $165 million contract extension makes that crystal clear.

But given the fact that unflappable undrafted free agent quarterback Jalon Daniels helped guide the Bucs to their first win of the year in a nationally televised primetime game on the road in Dallas does beg the question. Should Daniels continue to start coming off this win, or should head coach Todd Bowles start Mayfield in Week 6 at home against Pittsburgh – if he’s cleared to play?

Bucs QB Jalon Daniels – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

During Friday’s press conference Bowles said he’s preparing to start Daniels and will wait to see how Mayfield’s injured thumb is progressing when the team returns to One Buc Place on Monday after a long weekend off.

If Mayfield is truly healthy enough to play and the thumb feels fine – meaning he can grip the ball without pain and throw it with velocity and accuracy – then his experience and status as the starter should make him the logical choice to start versus Pittsburgh. Daniels would have done his job as a backup with a 1-1 record and kept the Bucs somewhat afloat at 1-4 rather than sink to the bottom of the ocean at 0-5.

If Bowles thinks Mayfield is trying to rush back to soon because he feels the weight and the pressure of delivering on his new $55 million salary, especially after a turnover-filled three starts, which resulted in a 0-3 start, then the head coach needs to ride with the rookie one more game.

Yet whatever decision Bowles makes will be met with anger from the fans if the Bucs don’t record back-to-back wins and beat the Steelers. Whoever he chooses as the starter must play well against Pittsburgh’s stout defense, which will be more like Minnesota’s and less like Dallas’.

If Daniels plays and the Bucs lose then Bowles is screwed by not going with the veteran over the rookie. If Mayfield returns to action and Tampa Bay loses then Bowles will face criticism over not riding the hot hand, especially given how poised Daniels is and how hard he is to sack due to his escapability, which is even better than Mayfield’s. If Bowles gives Daniels the start and he falters, then Bowles will be deemed foolish for not going with the experienced hand at quarterback in a must-win game to avoid a 1-5 start.

The only thing that will make this decision easy for Bowles is if Mayfield isn’t medically cleared to play yet. If Mayfield isn’t practicing by next Wednesday he won’t play versus the Steelers in Week 6. If he does return to practice and doesn’t have much issues throwing the ball or taking snaps under center, then Bowles has a big decision ahead of him.

And for a head coach not known for his best game management decisions, Bowles will be under plenty of scrutiny if the Bucs continue to go winless at home this year and lose to the Steelers.

STATEMENT 2. Tampa Bay FINALLY Wins The Turnover Battle

After weeks of losing close, one-score games this year – and dating back to the end of the 2025 season – the Bucs finally won a close, one-score game. The reason? Tampa Bay finally won the turnover battle, which is something it hasn’t done this year during the team’s 0-4 start. The Bucs entered Thursday night with a minus-5 turnover margin. Only the Colts at minus-6 are worse this year.

Tampa Bay got two improbable interceptions off deflections from outside linebacker Yaya Diaby and inside linebacker Alex Anzalone, and Anzalone’s pick sealed the win for the Bucs after the offense picked up a key first down. While Dak Prescott wasn’t sacked during the game, Todd Bowles’ unit pressured him all night and he wound up struggling against the blitz.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Prescott entered the game with a 78.3% completion percentage against the blitz, which was third-best in the league. Yet against the Bucs on Thursday night, Prescott completed just 2-of-12 passes for 31 yards when harassed by David Walker and Co.

Tampa Bay’s other takeaway came in the second half on special teams when special teams aces Miles Killebrew and Kevin Knowles teamed up for a forced fumble and fumble recovery on a Dallas kick off return. Killebrew stripped it and Knowles, who was acquired off waivers at the start of the season for his special teams coverage ability, recovered the loose ball. Tampa Bay wound up kicking a field goal on that drive to push its lead to 24-10.

“Yeah, did a heck of a job,” Bowles said. “I believe it was Miles that might have got it out, but when you can get that and you can get two on defense, and you’re going to have three turnovers and takeaways a game, that bodes well for you.”

This play made up for the special teams coverage gaffe against Minnesota two weeks prior when the Vikings scored on an 86-yard punt return, which was a crucial touchdown in a 23-16 loss in Week 3. It’s crazy how a 3-o turnover advantage only resulted in an 8-point win for the Bucs this week, just like losing the turnover battle 4-1 in Week 1 at Cincinnati resulted in a 6-point loss.

Bucs CB Kevin Knowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Did Todd Bowles Actually Forego A Field Goal That Would’ve Given The Bucs A 17-Point Lead?

Yes. And the decision to go for a touchdown on fourth-and-goal at the Dallas 1 with a 14-point lead instead of kicking a field goal that would’ve given Tampa Bay a three-score lead was wrong, wrong, wrong.

It was wrong.

You take the points there from Chase McLaughlin, who is automatic from point blank range and go up 17 points with 8:32 left in regulation. Todd Bowles should have known better after seeing his team blow a 14-point lead with 10 minutes left last year in a 29-28 loss to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football.

“We talked about it,” Bowles said. “It was less than a yard, and the way we were running the football, we were trying to put the game away.”

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Trying to put the game away? A 17-point lead is a THREE-SCORE LEAD.

That is putting the game away. I’m not very good in math, but I can count to 17.

To make matters worse, Dallas drove 99 yards for a touchdown in three minutes to make it a one-score game with 5:26 remaining. Only a late interception from Alex Anazlone at the Bucs’ 12-yard line on the Cowboys’ final drive saved Bowles from an epic blunder.

That was a bone-headed decision by Bowles and it deserves criticism. I do applaud him for owning up to the mistake in his post-game press conference on Friday morning.

“We talked about it and I knew three [points] was better,” Bowles said. “In my head, the way we were running the ball and the way we were playing defense I thought, ‘I’ll put the dagger in right there.’ It was completely on me and I knew we should have went up [17] points. I got greedy and went for it, and the defense made a play at the end to bail us out. But that was definitely on me.”

Still, we’ve seen too many poor game management decisions like this during his tenure in Tampa Bay. And it’s decisions like this that have contributed to his 36-37 record as the Bucs’ head coach.

QUESTION 2. Can The Bucs Get More Games Like This From Bucky Irving?

They need to. Bucky Irving was sensational in powering the Bucs to their first and only victory of the season. He had two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while racking up 165 yards on 21 carries (7.9 avg.), including a career-long 72-yard jaunt in the third quarter that set up Emeka Egbuka’s 14-yard touchdown run on an end around on the next play to help the Bucs take a 14-10 lead.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Irving also iced the game after Alex Anzalone’s interception on Dallas’ final drive by ripping off a 22-yard run on second-and-12 with 1:10 left to pick up a first down that allowed Tampa Bay to run out the clock with two QB kneel downs. This was Irving’s first 100-yard rushing performance since he ran for 114 yards in a 45-14 win over Carolina in Week 17 of the 2024 season.

With Baker Mayfield sidelined for a second straight week due to an injured thumb, Irving was the big-play firestarter who was the emotional spark for the offense. Tampa Bay will need a few more games like this from Irving as it attempts to get back on track this season after a 1-4 start.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Will Lose To The Steelers

I was pleasantly surprised by the upset win over the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. But it took an awful lot to go right by Tampa Bay – and a lot of awful wrong to happen by Dallas – for Todd Bowles and Co. to come away with their first win of the season. Pittsburgh’s defense has plenty of playmakers, and whether it’s Jalon Daniels or Baker Mayfield under center, I don’t quite trust this Tampa Bay offensive line just yet. The O-line just commits too many drive-killing penalties too often at this stage of the season.

Pittsburgh’s offense is starting to come together with Aaron Rodgers (well, sort of) getting in a groove with Mike McCarthy’s play-calling. Throw in the fact that the Steelers fans will outnumber the Bucs fans at Raymond James Stadium and I think the Bucs wind up winless at home again, losing another close game, unfortunately.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Still Wind Up With A Losing Record This Year

As great as Thursday night’s win was for Tampa Bay, this team is still 1-4 and has a big hole to dig out of the rest of the season. The good news for the Bucs, who trail the Panthers (2-2) and the Falcons (2-2) by two games in the NFC South is that all of their divisional games are ahead on the schedule. There is still time for Todd Bowles and the Bucs to make up some ground by beating their divisional rivals.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

While Tampa Bay’s defense is playing really well, especially cornerbacks Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish, who combined for six pass breakups, this Bucs team still has plenty of issues to work out. The pressure was better versus Dallas, but Tampa Bay still has just six sacks through five games and is not living up to its potential in terms of getting to the quarterback. And Bowles is known for in-game management blunders like we saw on Thursday night. If I had to guess this team wins between 5-8 games this year.

In order to get a winning record, which would be 9-8, the Bucs would have to go 8-4 over the next 12 games and I’m just not sure this team is capable of doing that this season. We’ll see what happens after Week 6, and whether they are closer to getting to eight or nine wins in 2026 – or closer to maybe just five.