In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: Bucs Defense Has Chance To Be Special

The Bucs’ starting defense had about as good a showing as one could possibly hope for against Kansas City. The Bucs held Kansas City to a total of 13 yards and -4.74 EPA over just six snaps across two drives. That showing provides a glimpse at what the ceiling for them is this year. And make no mistake, that ceiling is elite.

Does that mean they will be elite? No. Was Kansas City trotting out a quasi-starting lineup absent their All-World quarterback? Yes. But still the bones are in place for a strong unit that could even carry the team for small stretches if need be.

On early downs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles went with single-high looks against 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) and two-high looks with a five-man front against 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, two receivers).

The first time Bowles got to third down he threw a nasty picture-change at Justin Fields and Kansas City’s offense. Showing a double-mugged six-man front and having Zyon McCollum motion with Cyrus Allen from the field slot to the outside boundary, Bowles was doing everything in his power to scream “Man Coverage and we’re sending the house!”

Post-snap it was the complete opposite. Tykee Smith bailed late to the boundary deep half, Antoine Winfield Jr. rotated to the field half and Alex Anzalone went into sprinter mode running the pole from his mugged-up position as Josiah Trotter located the crossers developing across the middle of the field.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s four man pass rush did what everyone hopes it can do in 2026. It got home with Yaya Diaby forcing Fields to go with the only route he felt comfortable ID’ing as open — the shallow cross three yards short of the sticks. The pass rush and changing picture helped cover up for some genuine holes in the coverage and the Bucs got off the field.

Fast forward to their second drive. This one I want to take play-by-play.

First-and-10

Just like in the first drive, Bowles matched 11 personnel with a single-high safety look from nickel. That put safety Tykee Smith in the box to the single-receiver boundary. Where in the past Bowles has tried to win first down by sending five or more at the quarterback, this time he brought a non-traditional rusher while still committing seven to coverage.

Smith blitzed off Fields’ blindside while the defensive line slanted their rush away from him. The design worked perfectly as Yaya Diaby pressed Jaylon Moore’s inside shoulder, occupying the left tackle. And with running back Emari Demercado pushing out to his route immediately there was no one left to block Smith.

Getting a free runner while rushing four is a defensive coordinator’s dream. Doing it while confusing the quarterback on the coverage behind it is his fever dream.

The Bucs once again rotated to Cover 2, this time fully inverting it.

To the field, McCollum dropped to the deep half with Winfield once again rotating to the other side. Keionte Scott kicked from the slot to the field-side flat and Rueben Bain Jr. became the field-side hook. Kansas City’s most dangerous field-side route – a crosser – was now bending away from the quarterback’s scramble and into the teeth of the defense. Fields was left with no option other than throwing a harmless pass to the flat for a one-yard gain.

Second-and-9

On second down, Bowles layered a late rusher in the form of Alex Anzalone while dropping both of his edge rushers. Because of Calijah Kancey’s unique athleticism, his first step and juice off the ball immediately occupied both Moore and left guard Kingsley Suamataia.

And with the center shading to nose tackle Rakeem Nuñez-Roches, Anzalone came through clean enough to look like a free runner, and Fields sped up his read accordingly. The result was a quick pass that gained just five yards, bringing up thirdand-4.

Third-and-4

Bowles showed pressure again. This time he put seven(!) on the line, with both linebackers mugged up and a safety as the end man on the line. It doesn’t matter that he rarely brings the heat from this look. The point is he can, and the offense has to account for it. Because as soon as they don’t, Bowles will send the house and then it becomes a real problem.

Both perimeter corners positioned themselves inside to immediately pounce on a quick in-breaker. They dared Fields to try a quick vertical outside throw, knowing the odds of that pass connecting are slim. These situations are a game of percentages, with the goal not being to eliminate the possibility of the opponent succeeding — because that is impossible — but rather forcing him into the lowest probability option.

Post-snap the Bucs did bring some heat. Five rushers with a Mike/tackle stunt. The whole pocket caved thanks to Bowles’ new look front. Fields was forced into a half-field read and he was looking right where the Bucs had walled four defenders. His only option was an out-route that was opening up, but at a less-than-ideal angle. His pass was flat and too far in front.

Incomplete. Drive killed.

Again, this was six plays against a quasi-starting unit. But even in preseason it gave an outstanding look into how Bowles can attack opposing offenses with a roster built to his vision. Pressure in various forms paired with full field rotations.

A three-man safety group that can all move into the box, or the slot means the Bucs defense can match pre-snap motion without ever losing leverage or the threat of a quick blitz from a defensive back. And with a more athletic linebacker corps that early middle of the field windows up the seams are a more difficult proposition for quarterbacks.

Better athletes. More weapons. All complementing each other.

This is the defense that Bowles can storm the league with.

Finance: Player Incentives for 2026

Previously in this section I covered LTBE (likely to be earned) and NLTBE (non-likely to be earned) bonuses and their effect on the salary cap. In doing so I covered the up to $5 million in bonuses Baker Mayfield can earn this year. This week I thought I would share with you the other players on the roster who have bonuses they can earn this year.

All of this information is provided by Over The Cap.

OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad

Muhammad has up to $2 million in bonuses he can earn this season.

• $500,000 if he plays 40% of the team’s defensive snaps (LTBE)
• $500,000 if he plays 60% of the team’s defensive snaps (NLTBE)
• $250,000 if he gets 6 sacks (LTBE)
• $250,000 if he gets 8 sacks (LTBE)
• $250,000 if he gets 10 sacks (LTBE)
• $250,000 if he gets 12 sacks (NLTBE)

Muhammad cleared both the 40% snap threshold and 10 sacks last season, which is why the bulk of this money is already treated as likely to be earned.

So $1.25 million of these are already accounted for on this year’s salary cap and are subject to a cap credit in 2027 if he fails to reach those milestones. Likewise, if he hits 60% playtime and/or 12 sacks the Bucs will incur additional cap charges of up to $750,000 next year.

Bucs OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

WR Chris Godwin Jr.

Godwin has up to $2 million in performance bonuses he could pocket this year. All of them are classified as not likely to be earned (NLTBE), because he did not hit any of these benchmarks last year, and so none of this is accounted for on this year’s cap.

• $66,667 if he catches 55 passes
• $133,333 if he catches 65 passes
• $216,666 if he catches 75 passes
• $66,667 if he tallies 650 receiving yards
• $133,333 if he tallies 750 receiving yards
• $216,666 if he tallies 850 receiving yards
• $66,667 if he catches 6 touchdowns
• $133,333 if he catches 7 touchdowns
• $216,666 if he catches 8 touchdowns
• $187,500 for any playoff win where he plays at least 50% of the offensive snaps — these cap at four wins and $750k.

Any of these bonuses that he earns will be charged against 2027’s salary cap.

QB Jake Browning

Yes, the Bucs backup quarterback has just over $125k in not likely to be earned bonuses available to him.

• $41,875 if he plays in 25% of the team’s offensive snaps
• $41,875 if he plays in 35% of the team’s offensive snaps
• $41,875 if he plays in 45% of the team’s offensive snaps

OLB Anthony Nelson

The steady Eddie of the Bucs pass rush can earn $500,000 if he plays in 50% of the team’s defensive snaps. He did not hit this mark last year so it is not likely to be earned and would be charged against 2027’s salary cap if he hits it.

Forecast: Final 53-Man Roster Projection

With two preseason games already in the books, the Bucs are nearing cutdown day. I put together a “way-too-early” forecast of the final 53-man roster a couple of months ago, but with new information comes a few changes.

OFFENSE (25)

QB (3) — Baker Mayfield, Jake Browning, Jalon Daniels

RB (3) — Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell, Josh Williams

WR (6) — Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan, Ted Hurst III, Tez Johnson, Kameron Johnson

TE (4) — Cade Otton, Payne Durham, Ko Kieft, Bauer Sharp

OL (9) — Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke, Dan Feeney, Benjamin Chukwuma, Billy Schrauth, Elijah Klein

Bucs QB Jalon Daniels – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

DEFENSE (25)

DT (6) — Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, A’Shawn Robinson, Elijah Roberts, DeMonte Capehart, Rakeem Nuñez-Roches

OLB (5) — Yaya Diaby, Rueben Bain Jr., David Walker, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Anthony Nelson

ILB (4) — Alex Anzalone, Josiah Trotter, SirVocea Dennis, Christian Rozeboom

CB (5) — Zyon McCollum, Jacob Parrish, Benjamin Morrison, Keionte Scott, Ayden Garnes

S (5) — Antoine Winfield Jr., Tykee Smith, Ifeatu Melifonwu, JJ Roberts, Miles Killebrew

SPECIALISTS (3)

K — Chase McLaughlin

P — Riley Dixon

LS — Evan Deckers

What Changed

Jalon Daniels is in. Daniels has played himself into a roster spot, if for no other reason than the team probably can’t stash him on a practice squad. If they tried to put him through waivers there is a good chance another team would claim him.

Sean Tucker is out. Tucker does not make my 53. His road through the offseason has been a curious one. Initially the team opted not to tender him, but after missing out on some big-name free agents, they put through the late tender at a $3.52 million price tag. None of that salary is guaranteed and it’s a high price for his career production. Between Josh Williams at running back and Kam Johnson as a returner the team may feel like they can replicate his skillsets at a cheaper price while saving a roster spot elsewhere.

Justin Skule to the practice squad. I think the team will try to stash Skule on the practice squad to start the season in an effort to avoid guaranteeing his salary — if Skule is on the roster week one his salary becomes fully guaranteed.

Kam Johnson makes the team as their primary return man.

Ifeatu Melifonwu goes from late arrival to making the roster to provide some veteran depth in the secondary.

Ayden Garnes gives the Bucs some confidence at the back of the CB depth chart. The kid is legit.

Ko Kieft and Miles Killebrew are listed at their traditional positions but make the team due to their special teams play.

Fun Fourth Down: Todd Bowles Away From Football

Todd Bowles’ personality has a bit of an eclectic reputation. His players consistently talk about his humorous nature, but that doesn’t always shine through when he meets with the media. He has a penchant for rejecting any premise that someone might assume in their questions to him. And we caught a glimpse of his fiery side last year when he went on a profanity-laden tirade after a disappointing loss to the Falcons on Thursday Night Football last December.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Given those many different sides of Bowles I thought I would take a crack at a David Letterman-style “Top Ten” list, noting the top things Bowles might say in his day-to-day life. Letterman did 10. I’m keeping it at five for brevity’s sake.

1. After watching the movie Anchorman: “Milk is ALWAYS a good choice.
2. At a family reunion, asked which grandchild is his favorite: “They all bring something different.”
3. After finding out the deli worker messed up his Pub Sub: “It’s inexcusable. You don’t make excuses. You’ve got to f***ing care enough where this s*** hurts. It’s got to f***ing mean something to you. It’s more than a job; it’s your f***ing livelihood. Well, you can’t sugarcoat that s***. That’s what you tell them at the deli counter. Look in the f***ing mirror.”
4. After getting rear-ended at a red light, the other driver leaps out apologizing: “I wouldn’t necessarily say you hit me.”
5. After witnessing an honest-to-God miracle, asked by his family what happened as he saw it: “I’ll have to check the tape.”