It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Pt Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs got a much-needed win in an unexpected blowout fashion against the Panthers in Carolina, 43-13. Tampa Bay’s defense smothered a red hot Carolina offense, while Bucky Irving and the Bucs ground game ran roughshod over a shoddy Panthers defense. Tampa Bay improves to 2-5 on the year and moves t0 1-0 in the NFC South while Carolina falls to 3-3 on the season.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bucs Defense Is Becoming A Monster

What was more impressive about Tampa Bay’s 43-13 win in Carolina – the Bucs offense having a breakout game with 34 points or the defense holding the Panthers offense, which was averaging 29 points per game, to just 13 points? Each was quite a feat, but I’m going to lean towards Todd Bowles’ defense having a monster game in limiting the Panthers to just 266 yards when their season average was 404.4 yards per game, including 88 yards on the ground.

In fact, the Bucs defense is becoming a monster this season – right around Halloween – and this unit hasn’t been nearly this good since 2021 when the team won a franchise-record 13 games.

The old football adage is “if they can’t score, they can’t win.”

With the Bucs defense playing as well as it did on Sunday, the Panthers’ high-scoring offense just didn’t have a chance as quarterback Bryce Young was throwing picks when he wasn’t getting sacked a total of five times.

Here is where the Bucs defense ranks through Week 7.

Run defense: 2nd (77.3 avg.)
Pass defense: 14th (217.4 avg.)
Total defense: 3rd (294.7 avg.)
Scoring defense: 14th (21.6 avg.)

The reason why Tampa Bay won in Carolina on Sunday is the same reason why the team won in Dallas a few weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The Bucs defense created multiple takeaways – with some help from special teams, too. In the win over the Cowboys, the Bucs defense recorded two interceptions while forcing and recovering a fumble on special teams. Against the Panthers, the Bucs defense recorded two more interceptions, forced a fumble and had a scoop-and-score from Calijah Kancey, in addition to Ko Kieft recovering a muffed punt deep inside Carolina territory.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Dating back to the loss against Minnesota in Week 3, the Bucs have recorded at least one interception in each of the last five games and now have eight on the season with 10 games left. That’s tied for second in the league with Seattle and just one behind Green Bay. Tampa Bay only recorded 13 picks last year and the team is currently on pace for 19 this year. That would top the 17 interceptions the Bucs had during the 2021 season, which is the most of any Bowles defense in Tampa Bay since he arrived in 2019 as the defensive coordinator.

In back-to-back weeks the Buccaneers defense recorded five sacks and now has 16 sacks on the season, which is tied for the sixth-most sacks in the league. After posting just six sacks in the first five weeks, Tampa Bay has exploded for 10 sacks over the past two games and went from being in the bottom third of the league in getting to the quarterback to in the top 10.

Unfortunately due to an offense that has been wildly inconsistent and underachieving, Tampa Bay has only won twice this year and is 2-5 after Sunday’s raucous victory. Bowles’ defense can only do so much, but it is turning into a dominant unit thanks to an influx of upgraded talent this year.

In fact, Tampa Bay’s defense is becoming downright scary good.

STATEMENT 2. We’ve Been Waiting For These Breakout Performances

It wasn’t the usual suspects showing up for Tampa Bay in Carolina, although Bucky Irving’s fifth career 100-yard game plus his two touchdowns were a welcomed sight. Instead, the Bucs got big plays from players we’ve been waiting to see have breakout moments.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield returned to action to get his first win of the season, but he didn’t have to do much other than turn around and hand the ball off, as Tampa Bay amassed a season-high 258 yards on the ground. And it wasn’t just Irving.

Bucs RB Kenny Gainwell – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Kenny Gainwell had a breakout game and finished with 88 yards on 14 carries, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. Sean Tucker ripped off a 46-yard touchdown run and finished with seven carries for 52 yards and a 7.4-yard average.

Defensively, cornerback Zyon McCollum recorded his first interception of the season and even scored a defensive extra worth two points on a blocked PAT by Tykee Smith, who also notched his first interception of the season. Both interceptions came on aggressive plays by the defensive backs, which was great to see.

Up front it wasn’t defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, who leads the Bucs in interceptions with two, or sack-leading edge rusher David Walker who were making the usual big plays. Instead it was Yaya Diaby, who broke his sack-less streak this season and notched three quarterback captures in Carolina.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Defensive tackle Vita Vea also recorded his first sack of the season, and defensive tackle Calijah Kancey recorded his first career touchdown on a 32-yard scoop-and-score after Al-Quadin Muhammad notched his second sack of the year and stripped Bryce Young of the football.

Now comes the big question now that these players finally arrived in the 2026 season – can these breakout efforts turn into more regular performances for Tampa Bay?

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. But What About The Tampa Bay Passing Game?

While it was great to see the Bucs run wild in Carolina, racking up 258 yards on the ground, what about the passing game? Is this an area that is going to improve or continue to be awful?

Baker Mayfield completed 7-of-11 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown in his return to action from his dislocated thumb. That’s all he had to do in a game that was all but over in the second quarter. But what happens when the Bucs can’t run the ball at will in future games and will be forced to be more balanced on offense – or have to rely on the passing game to move the ball and score points? That question remains unanswered after Sunday’s win at Carolina.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Tampa Bay’s passing offense ranks dead last in the NFL, averaging a paltry 150.4 yards per game this season. Granted, undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels started three games and contributed to the low number of passing yards. But in the first three games of the season with Mayfield under the center Tampa Bay passed for just 216 yards at Cincinnati, 182 yards versus Cleveland and 217 yards versus Minnesota.

That’s measly passing production from an offense that has a $55 million quarterback, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and his penchant for calling way too many passing plays that throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage or only within five yards of the line of scrimmage are to blame.

We didn’t see much evidence on Sunday in Carolina that Mayfield could really sling the ball. Mayfield’s longest completion of the day was 19 yards and his longest pass was a 21-yard strike to Ted Hurst III, which drew a pass interference penalty.

The Bucs’ next two opponents, the Falcons and the Bears, rank fourth and third in run defense, respectively. Atlanta, which is just coming off an upset over previously undefeated San Francisco, allows just 88.9 yards per game, while Chicago allows 87.6 yards per game on the ground. Tampa Bay will be forced to be much better in the passing game in order to win either game – or both.

And I’m not sure Robinson, Mayfield and the Bucs’ passing game is capable of doing that.

QUESTION 2. Are The Bucs Still Alive In The NFC South? Can They Win The Division?

Yes, the Bucs are still alive – just barely – even with a 2-5 record. That’s because Tampa Bay won a double-whammy game, getting a divisional win over Carolina while knocking the Panthers down a peg to 3-3 on the season. The Bucs are 1-0 in the NFC South while the Panthers are now 1-1. This week’s opponent, the Falcons, are 0-1 in the division and have a 3-4 record.

A loss by Carolina at Green Bay on Thursday Night Football would drop the Panthers to 3-4, and a win over the Falcons would put both Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 3-5 with the Bucs owning the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head win and a 2-0 mark in the division. A Panthers loss in Week 8 coupled with a Bucs win over the Falcons would put Tampa Bay just a half a game back in the division.

That’s how close things are in the crappy NFC South division where no team has a winning record through seven weeks of the season.

The problem for the Bucs is that they are still three games below .500 and can’t even get to .500 until after the bye – even with two more wins versus the Falcons and the Bears in the next two weeks. That’s how an 0-4 start can wreck a season.

In order for Tampa Bay to even get to 8-9, which might not be enough to win the division this year, the team has to go 6-4 down the stretch. To get to 9-8 the Bucs would have to finish 7-3. Do you see this team capable enough of pulling that off? I’d have to see more evidence first. Wins against the Falcons and the Bears in the coming weeks would probably convince me it was possible.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Continue To Lose At Home

Both of the Bucs’ wins have come on the road, and for some reason the team is 0-4 this year at home. Todd Bowles’ troops have blown two double-digit leads in the fourth quarter to Cleveland and Pittsburgh. That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in picking the Bucs to beat a 3-4 Falcons team that is coming off a big win over a previously unbeaten 49ers team on Sunday.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’m also mindful that Tampa Bay hasn’t beaten Atlanta at Raymond James Stadium since 2022 for some reason. So I expect the Falcons to come in to Tampa on Sunday with a lot of confidence, especially with three wins over the Bucs in the last four games.

Throw in the fact that the Bucs’ terrible passing game will have to come to life against a Falcons defense that is stout against the run and I have serious doubts that Tampa Bay can win back-to-back games. Atlanta has the better passing game and I think Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson will continue to hurt Tampa Bay through the air – even without Kirk Cousins.

PREDICTION 2. The Winner Of The NFC South Won’t Be Crowned Until Week 18

Like always, the winner of “crap hill” won’t be determined until the final week of the season. Remember that the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons finished in a three-way tie at 8-9 last year. Even though Tampa Bay beat Carolina in the season finale on Saturday, it wasn’t until Atlanta beat New Orleans on Sunday to determine that the Panthers would win the division via a tiebreaker.

I expect that to happen again with the winner of the NFC South having no more than nine wins this season. Who wins it? Who knows? It seems like it could be Carolina, Atlanta or Tampa Bay at this point. I have my doubts about New Orleans at this point.