The Bucs have been expected to make the playoffs entering just about every season during the 2020s. ESPN’s latest playoff projections view Tampa Bay as favorites to reclaim the NFC South title, but the numbers suggest they remain far from the NFL’s true contenders entering 2026.

The team’s failure to reach the postseason in 2025 was the first time that had happened this decade, and they do not want it to happen again. Much of the discussion to this point has been about whether or not the Bucs are a middle-of-the-pack-team and what the win ceiling is in 2026. Comparing how they stand to the rest of the NFL is an interesting thought exercise.

ESPN Sees Bucs As NFC South Favorites, But Not True Contenders

ESPN’s Seth Walder explained the platform’s Football Power Index, which serves as a basis for how they ranked each NFL team.

A lot of what is projected makes sense. The Rams, who just pulled off a historic blockbuster trade for pass rusher Myles Garrett, rank first by a wide margin. Los Angeles is the team to beat this season, boasting a 14.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl. One could get lost in all the numbers and examine each team, but what about the Bucs?

Bucs GM Jason Licht and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

They are not in the same tier as Los Angeles, ranking 18th in FPI. Tampa Bay was given the 17th-best playoff odds, coming in at 47.3%, largely due to a 41.2% chance of winning the NFC South. Those numbers are a lot higher than the Falcons (33.7%, 27.4%), Saints (23.8%, 19.3%), and Panthers (15.8%, 12.2%). That drives home the expectation that the Bucs are not viewed as one of the NFL’s best teams, but rather the best team in the NFC South.

Betting on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl would be extremely profitable at this point, considering they are given just a 1.6% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Running thousands of simulations to derive a win-loss calculation, the Bucs are expected to have 8.5 wins to 8.4 losses. That is right in the sweet spot of being an 8-9 or 9-8 team in 2026. While things could skew more in either direction, one factor is holding them back.

Bucs Defense Expected To Be The Biggest Thing Holding Them Back In 2026

Looking more into the Football Power Index, the Bucs were given a .1 mark based on the contributions of offense, defense, and special teams put together. It can be compared to baseball’s WAR metric which determines how much better a player is than replacement level. Using that same process to look at each unit, it is clear Tampa Bay’s defense is expected to keep them from accomplishing more.

The offense was given a .6 mark, which projects them to be the 15th-best offense in the NFL. That might be the most questionable projection in the entire breakdown, as that ranking should be closer to the top 10.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Things were about as bad as they could get down the stretch in 2025, and they still had the 18th-best scoring offense. With a new offensive coordinator set to call plays, quarterback Baker Mayfield will be set up in a better position to have success with a more consistent run game behind him. Add in a healthier set of weapons to throw to and an offensive line at full strength, the unit is expected to get closer to where it was in 2024, when it ranked as the fourth-best scoring offense.

The reason Tampa Bay lands outside of the league’s true contenders becomes obvious on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bucs are projected to be tied with the Panthers for the 22nd-best defense in the league, with a negative .7 mark. While Todd Bowles has brought in younger coaches to the staff and a new cast of players to work with, there are a lot of moving parts for him to figure out between now and before the season kicks off. Given recent results, it is not surprising to see this ranking.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ESPN’s model appears to be driven largely by uncertainty on defense. Tampa Bay finished near the bottom of the league in several key pass defense categories last season and is counting on multiple new contributors to play major roles in 2026. Models tend to favor proven production over projected improvement. While there is plenty of room for substantial improvement, it is far from a guarantee.

An underrated silver lining in ESPN’s FPI is how highly they view the team’s special teams unit, as they are expected to be tied for fourth-best in the league with a .2 mark. While special teams do not move the needle as much, it does make the difference in close games and caused a few wins to slip away from Tampa Bay’s grasp last season. With longtime special teams coordinator Danny Smith brought in, there is a different expectation that it will not be a liability. Having one of the best kickers in the game in Chase McLaughlin helps, too.

Making sense of these analytics helps contextualize where the Bucs stand compared to the rest of the NFL. While 18th might be a couple of spots too low, ESPN’s projections paint Tampa Bay as an average team with an above-average chance of winning a below-average division. The offense appears capable of outperforming expectations, but until the defense proves it can take a meaningful step forward, they will remain closer to the middle tier of NFL contenders than the top.