The Bucs trading away the 27th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to Jacksonville for picks No. 33, No. 106, No. 180. Why would general manager Jason Licht make this trade? As Scott Reynolds said on the Pewter Report Live Draft Show, the reason is because the Bucs had several players they liked who would still be available at their next pick. But beyond that, after seeing what Tampa Bay was able to get back in the trade it’s also because the team received excellent value in the trade.
Value Explained
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NFL teams don’t make draft pick trades based off gut feel. Each team uses a chart with a specific value assigned to every pick. This is how they can weave such intricate trades in minutes where both sides come away feeling good about what they received for what they gave up. However, not every team uses the same chart. This is where a savvy G.M. can find surplus value. And if we have learned anything about Licht in his almost 10 years in Tampa Bay, it’s that he is a savvy GM.
Two Of The Most Popular Draft Charts
The first trade value chart to become popularized in the NFL was the “Jimmy Johnson Pick Value Chart.” Johnson popularized the chart when he was the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This chart is weighted heavily towards picks in the early rounds, as Johnson believed there were a very limited number of good players in a given draft and they were typically only available early. This chart is still very popular today.
Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Johnson chart isn’t the only chart out in the public domain though. Comparatively, there have been many advances in analyzing the value of draft picks over the last 30-35 years. Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus and Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com endeavored to find a more efficient model in their book “The Drafting Stage.”
The model they created was much more analytically based, as they used contract data and performance of draft picks to better understand the expected value of each pick in the draft. Subsequently, they were able to assign their own values to each pick, coming up with a different model than the original Johnson chart. Overall, they discovered that NFL teams really aren’t great at picking which players are going to be the best in a given draft class. And therefore the more picks a team can accumulate the better their chances are of coming away with good players. I call it the shotgun approach. Since its development, this model has proven to be a more accurate reflection of value in the NFL Draft.
What Does Each Model Say About The Bucs’ Trade?
Teams throughout the NFL use different models to assign value. Some still use the Johnson chart. Some may use the Spielberger/Fitzgerald model. Many teams most likely use their own proprietary system. From this trade we can infer two things.
A) The Jaguars most likely still use the Johnson chart.
B) The Bucs use a chart more in-line with the Spielberger/Fitgerald model. How can we tell? Here is the breakdown of the trade using each method.
Johnson Model
Bucs give up:
No. 27 (680 points)
Jaguars give up:
No. 33 (580 points)
No. 106 (82 points)
No. 180 (17.8 points)
Therefore, using this method, the Bucs receive 679.8 points worth of value, while giving up 680 points. Basically, this is an even trade. The Jaguars they like it because they give up no surplus value and get to move up to get a player they are obviously very high on in linebacker Devin Lloyd.
Spielberger-Fitzgerald Model
Bucs give up:
No. 27 (1330 points)
Jaguars give up:
No. 33 (1228 points)
No. 106 (637 points)
No. 180 (368 points)
As a result of this method, the Bucs receive 2,223 points worth of value, while giving up only 1330 points. The difference in value is 903 points – in Tampa Bay’s favor. The 903 points is approximately the same value as the 63rd overall pick, according to the Spielberger-Fitzgerald chart. Essentially, the Bucs were able to pick up the equivalent of an additional late second-round pick’s worth of value.
This is a quite an amazing haul for Licht and the Bucs. As Pewter Report’s Jon Ledyard said moments after Tampa Bay traded with Jacksonville, “The Jags just got hosed!”
Bucs Have 8 Total Picks On Day 2 And Day 3
This trade follows a sound process to give Tampa Bay more opportunity to add talent to it’s roster on Day 2 and Day 3. Here is a breakdown of all eight draft picks the Bucs have entering Day 2.
Second Round
No. 33 (from Jacksonville)
No. 60
Third Round
No. 91
Fourth Round
No. 106 (from Jacksonville)
No. 133
Sixth Round
No. 180 (from Jacksonville)
Seventh Round
No. 249
No. 262 (compensatory pick)
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About the Author: Joshua Queipo
Just don’t ask Dr. D his opinion because being the coach that he is, he knows better than JL what the Bucs need. Always cracks me up when all these “couch couches” know more than guys who win super bowls. I think it was a great move considering how weak the draft was on first round talent this year. There’s plenty of great players in the second and middle rounds this year so I’ll wait to see the final verdict instead of calling for our GM’s head like some of the people in here.
My inital response was because I thought we had gotten an third, a fifth and a sixth. Now I am just lukewarm to the trade. With Jeramiah Johnson still on the borad at 26, we should have done what the Jets did and that was to trade up. He was a player who can make an impact in his first year, not spend 50 percent of his time sitting on the bench like Shoyinka did.
Because of the unique circumstances this draft has talent that is flush between rounds 2-5. Once all the players with a 1st round grade come off the board it is better to bail and trade down given the depth of the middle of this draft.
Great move by Licht. Now just need trade 33 to Seattle for 40 and 73 and trade pick 60 and 133 to Kansas City for pick 50 and we have a ballgame. Some risk that Hall and McBride won’t be there at picks 40 and 50 but based on Bruglers The Athletic Rankings they probably will. His rankings have been right on the money. PFF not so much. Still prefer Travis Jones over Hall though.
Why not trade 33 and 106 to Seattle for 40 and 41?
Hopefully the team will hit on some of their pick today. They could take McCreary or Dean at 33, and perhaps one of the UGA RBs with the second.
Wouldn’t be surprised if that trade back again. Lot of time for these teams to think about that 33rd pick
Wouldn’t surprise me either. Fun stuff.
Agree.. someone might be willing to overpay for the top pick in the rest of the draft. Of course, Dom rockstar would keep it and pick the next da’Quan Bowers.
On paper this is a very smart trade for Jason Licht. It certainly gives him more room to exercise his judgement of the value provided by specific available players, and he has been very good at that since his disastrous 2016 draft. He could very well do some additional horsetrading. The bottom line, however, is it really doesn’t matter nearly as much WHERE you pick in the order … what always matters the most is HOW WELL YOU PICK, such as picking up star players on Day 2 at far lower cost than Day 1 pics. Licht has done well,… Read more »
Good analysis. Needs are TE, DT, OLB, RB, S, TE, WR, LB. This fills a lot of shoes, that maybe 3-4 pan out.
And of course Licht will hit on all of those with the fourth sixth and those eventh round picks while his draft history indicates otherwise. Like taking Russia’s word that they won’t massacre innocent civilians when they invade a country.
Or like taking your word that you have any sense of judgment at all when it coes to draft trading or late second round quarterback picks.
Think I might just trust Russia’s word more than yours .. and I don’t trust Russia in the least little bit.
Here’s another thought, Trade spot 33 for a 2023 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick in 2022; maybe a 5th round pick too in this draft?
“You’re going the wrong way,” couple in another car shouting at John Candy as he drives down the wrong way on an interstate. The Bucs Super Bowl window is this year. After that Brady moves on and the Bucs go into reuild with a rubber armed two year rookie at the helm. Not to smart.
Somebody remind me again what JL’s track record looks like on second round picks?
I kid….mostly.
Honestly, though, I like the move. If we somehow came away with Hall and one of the top TEs, it would be great!
A very vald question. Do names like M.J. Stewart, ASJ, Kyle Trask, Ronald Jones, Noah Spence give you comfort. It’s a valid question. The success rates of draft picks further down are even more horrendous. That’s why I don’t mind it when Licht trades draft picks for veterans with proven records
Yet in spite of the team having the best record in the league, in your mind it’s because of one guy and nothing to do with the other 52 rostered players. Be a novel thing if you would look at the end result of what Licht has done as a GM instead of being so intent on discrediting him at every turn. They all could have their Draft failures cherry-picked.
The bottom line is always the bottom line.
Kyle Trask has been a great success for what he was drafted to do – sit and learn under the GOAT until he’s needed to play.
Yep, Licht’s draft picks have been SO OH SO HORRENDOUS that he won a Super Bowl with them in 2021, and a division championship for the first time in 14 years in 2022. And picked up several Pro Bowlers and All Pros with those same picks.
You make Debbie Downer look like Pollyanna.
Bucs can really fortify the defense while adding more weapons and trench players on offense. Very excited for what day 2 will bring!
Don’t care much for “draft chart points” because if your guy is still there you grab him. I don’t think Licht’s guy was there and so he traded out. To me the 1st pick in 2nd rd is way more valuable than that 27th pick. Bucs are probably fielding multiple offers to trade but I think they take LB Nakobe Dean who was Georgia Bulldogs Best Defender. Think About That!
If the Bucs grab Hall at 33 and McBride at 60 we will have filled our 2 biggest needs and not reached at all. Then we can grab a Guard at 91, DB with 106 and a do it all RB at 133 and we are set. Then use our 6th and 7th on some potential steals and Special Teams and we got exactly what we need. Hopefully, if needed, Licht can use the 6th round to slide up a few spots to secure McBride if he has to. if we get Hall, our Dline is set especially if Suh… Read more »
I see a lot of people here mentioning about the Bucs trading back again for more picks. The problem I see with that is, players in the 4th round and beyond start having a less likely chance of making your team. The Bucs are already stocked, they don’t need a bunch of draft picks for guys who are going to be ‘trying out’ to make the roster. They need quality players who can make the team, play some now with hopes of being a quality starter a year or two down the road. I would rather see them package some… Read more »
In normal drafts but this years draft is deep in the middle because of how thin last years draft was. Bucs trade down again and there is a lot of value on the board in rounds 2-5.
Whether to trade down or not is not something that can be determined with generalities. It all depends upon the Bucs draft board, and who is still on it, and where in the draft order they may think they can get the BPA … and it also and equally depends upon the draft partner’s thinking on the same matter.
The 33rd pick is a prime pick to hold and usually a team will overpay to move up because they see a player they love that slide out if the first round.
I’d love to see the Bucs trade down again and pick up more picks.
The Bucs most likely have 30plys players rated very closely on their board.
One factor Ledyard and the rest of you “experts” fail to take into account is that by choosing a player with the first round is if he develops into a star, which you certainly hope he does, you get to keep him out of FA for another cheaper year.
Besdies for that, I don’t remember Licht coming up with that many diamonds in the rough beyond the thrid round. He did get Scotty Miller but because of a turf toe injury lat year he was under utilized.
i wish they would have asked for dan arnold TE and skipped the 6th rnd pick, Could have got more out of the trade.
Sweet baby Jesus, do you know how many ads I had to navigate just to read an average article? This is getting out of control Scott. How big does that boat have to be? Love ya’ but damn man.