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About the Author: Jon Ledyard

Avatar Of Jon Ledyard
Jon Ledyard is PewterReport.com's newest Bucs beat writer and has experience covering the Pittsburgh Steelers as a beat writer and analyzing the NFL Draft for several draft websites, including The Draft Network. Follow Ledyard on Twitter at @LedyardNFLDraft

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With nine minutes left in the Bucs’ Week 6 contest against the Eagles, Tampa Bay led, 28-14. But the team faced a 4th-and-2 from the Philadelphia 45-yard line, needing a first down to avoid putting their wilting defense back on the field. Head coach Bruce Arians wisely kept the offense on the field to go for it, but Tom Brady and co. couldn’t convert.

“I was trying to ice it and trust our offense to get it done,” Arians said after the game. “Then we didn’t get it done. You win some, you lose some.”

The Bucs rolled out in 12 personnel on the critical play call, taking Antonio Brown off the field. That was their first mistake. Brady looked over his options quickly, and was protected wonderfully. Eventually the Bucs star quarterback opted for O.J. Howard on a corner route, but couldn’t connect.

“No, we just missed him,” Arians said on Friday. “We went for the corner route and had a couple other guys that maybe could’ve gotten the ball. They had good pressure on [Brady] and we just didn’t make the play.”

There’s not a lot of detail in that description by Arians, so let’s take a look.

At first glance, we can see right away that Arians is mistaken about pressure. The offensive line does a great job on the play, and Brady has a completely clean pocket. At the snap, Brady looks to the field, where Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are in isolation. I struggle to understand making Godwin the least likely target on this play, in situations where he’s been so good for the Bucs.

Either way, Brady moves on quickly, perhaps too quickly. If he hangs in there a second, Evans comes open with a strong route. But Brady knows he has Howard against a linebacker with leverage from the snap on his corner route. The single-high safety makes a pretty good read, but won’t get there in time to make a play. Unfortunately, Howard flattens his route off rather than breaking at a proper angle. Combine the poor route break with a slow release, and the fifth-year tight end never creates ideal separation.

Perhaps Brady could have stuck a tight window throw in to Cam Brate or Gio Bernard, but the defenders on both players have some leverage. It would be a close call for either to pick up the first down in that situation. The Eagles deserve a ton of credit for covering this very well for the most part. There is no obvious place for Brady to go with the football.

I have small quibbles with Brady not sticking to the field concept on this play, but his process in throwing the corner route is sound. If Howard runs an acceptable route, there’s a chance this play hits. But that’s why you trust your best players in these situations, and have Brown on the field. That coaching error, combined with Howard’s ugly route, nearly cost the Bucs.

The Eagles scored on their next drive, cutting the Tampa Bay lead to 28-22 on a 2-point conversion. But the Bucs responded with a nearly 6-minute drive to ice the game with three kneel-downs. Tampa Bay is now 2-5 on 4th down this season.

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