Pewter Report’s PR Roundtable
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A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough Bucs question. This week’s prompt: What is your revised Bucs’ 2026 record prediction after five games?

Scott Reynolds: Bucs’ 0-4 Start Is Too Big Of A Hole To Dig Out Of

Just as a reminder, the entire Pewter Report staff predicted a bounce-back 10-7 record this year in Tampa Bay with the exception of Josh Queipo, who predicted an 11-6 record. I was dumb enough to initially forecast a 4-0 start. Instead, this Bucs team did the exact opposite, starting off 0-4, which nobody saw coming. So after a great win in Dallas in primetime with rookie QB Jalon Daniels under center, what is my revamped prediction for this team? Well, 0-4 is a big hole to dig out of.

In fact, only one team has started the season 0-4 and still made the playoffs. That was the 1992 San Diego Chargers, who started that year 0-4 before winning 11 of their last 12 games, finishing 11-5 and winning the AFC West. Can the Bucs become the only other team in NFL history to accomplish that? I doubt it, although the saving grace may be that Tampa Bay plays in the woeful NFC South where the division winner has won it twice with an 8-9 record since 2022, including Todd Bowles’ team in his first year as head coach in ’22.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Even getting to an 8-9 finish record mean that the Bucs would have to finish 7-5 down the stretch. That means winning two more games than they’ll actually lose. Do you see that happening? Can you find seven more wins on this schedule? At this time I simply can’t. Not with this offense struggling to not just score points, but to even move the ball.

Every yard is a fight for Zac Robinson’s unit. Every yard is hard and nothing is easy for the Bucs – not even third-and-short situations. Inconsistent quarterback play, the lack of a true No. 1 wide receiver, and far too many penalties committed upfront by the offensive line give me serious pause in thinking this team can win more than it loses down the stretch. Bowles’ defense is playing better, as expected, due to the additions to that side of the ball this offseason. But that won’t be enough to even get to eight wins.

So due to an unforeseen 0-4 start and an underwhelming offense, I can see Tampa Bay finishing 5-7 to wind up at 6-11 this year. Back-t0-back losing seasons ushers in a new coaching staff in 2027.

Matt Matera: Bucs’ Schedule Realistically Has Them Winning 6 Games

One would like to think that things can change for Tampa Bay once Baker Mayfield returns as the quarterback of the Bucs, but I’m not sure how much more this offense can be fixed. Do we think the Bucs turned a corner against the Cowboys, or did they take advantage of arguably the worst defense in the league? I believe it’s the latter.

It’s likely that Jalon Daniels starts on Sunday against the Steelers. Daniels has been solid, but not many will pick Tampa Bay to win this game. And this is a contest that the Bucs need to win. With other matchups against the Bears, Lions, Ravens and Rams on the schedule, the Bucs will be severely mismatched in all of those games.

Bucs QB Jalon Daniels – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

What this team needs is to benefit from playing in the NFC South, where they’re only a game out. Realistically, this team can go 3-3 in the division, maybe 4-2. If we’re optimistic that it’s four wins, I see maybe one upset win against the previously mentioned, non-NFC South competition. The Bucs have played in a lot of one-score games, but these other opponents are too good for them.

Adam Slivon: Bucs Go .500 The Rest Of The Way To Get To 7 Wins

Call this bold, but at the end of the day, the Bucs still play in the NFC South. The worst division in football continues to give every team in it a chance at making the playoffs. For a Tampa Bay team that has yet to play the Falcons, Panthers, or Saints, this can be a saving grace and allow them to rack up some wins.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

While fans might want to see the team bottom out, Todd Bowles does not want that to happen and will do everything in his power to turn it around. A small bit of optimism was seen in Dallas, and I see the next three games being toss-ups against the Steelers, Panthers, and Falcons. This could be a 4-4 or 3-5 team by the time they play the Bears.

Add in games against a Lions team with a bad defense, the Panthers again, and the Chargers, and suddenly they could be at five or six wins. I don’t see this team beating the Ravens or Rams, but there is a chance they get another couple of wins in the second meeting against the Falcons and facing the Saints twice at the end of the year.

This is not a seven-win team in other divisions, but the NFC South gives the Bucs a fighting chance. That is where I see them finishing, falling just short of making the playoffs.

Bailey Adams: It’ll Be Six Wins For The Bucs In 2026

Long gone are the days when I thought this Bucs team would win 10 games and recapture the NFC South title for the fifth time in six seasons. Yes, Tampa Bay just got back in the win column with a promising primetime victory over Dallas, but that game still didn’t do much to revive my belief in this group long term. Even in an attempt to be relatively generous with my projections for the final 12 games of this season, I’m only getting to six wins for the Bucs in 2026.

Pittsburgh comes to town Sunday, then NFC South play begins in Week 7 with a trip to face Carolina. Then comes another home game — this one against Atlanta — before a Sunday Night Football game at Chicago. I’d love to say the Bucs are going 3-1 in that stretch, but 2-2 feels more reasonable. That would make for a 3-6 record at the bye.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

Out of the week off, it’s a tough four-game stretch for the Bucs as they play the Lions on the road, return home for a Monday Night Football contest against the Panthers and a pewter-clad game against the struggling Chargers, then see the Ravens in Baltimore. I think 1-3 in that stretch is the most likely outcome for this team.

Then, to close out the season, the Bucs have the Saints at home, the Falcons on the road, the Rams in the home finale and then the Saints at the Superdome in Week 18. Conservatively speaking, that feels like another 1-3 stretch. But I think the Bucs steal one of those games for what will ultimately be a disappointing 6-11 season. With another losing season and what would be a 41-44 overall record in five seasons, Todd Bowles would then be out as the Bucs’ head coach.

Josh Queipo: Bucs Offense Will Cost This Team A Chance At A .500 Record

One win does not a good team make. But the Bucs were always better than their 0-4 record from a sheer talent standpoint. Facing an extremely poor defense in Dallas showed that Tampa Bay can win ball games. But how often will the Buccaneers see a defense as bad as the Cowboys down the stretch?

Part of the reason why Tampa Bay won in Dallas is because their defense is legitimately good. Not great, but good. And between special teams and that defense, the Bucs were able to finally win the turnover battle 3-0.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

A good defense can keep a team competitive. From there, it comes down to how the Bucs’ below average offense can compete. And to that end, Tampa Bay has a rosy outlook. As it stands right now, the Bucs only faced two teams ranked at 18 or better in scoring defense the rest of the way. Expand that look to EPA per play or success rate and the outlook remains relatively static.

It’s a function of competition, but the Bucs are still capable of winning another five to six games this year. I’ll take six and predict a 7-10 finish. A far cry from my initial prediction of 11-6, but coaching, game management and play-calling, especially on the offensive side of the ball, has cost Tampa Bay games this season already.

Nick Geddes: The 2026 Bucs Just Don’t Have It

Let me be the first to say that I whiffed completely on this Bucs team. Sure, their epic collapse last season was worrisome, but the roster, in my opinion, still looked the best on paper in the NFC South. Coaching concerns aside, I expected at least an 8-win season for Tampa Bay, though I ultimately had them finishing 10-7.

Now five games into the season, it looks clear the Bucs won’t be getting anywhere close to that. With an offense still struggling with consistency and a defense that can’t be trusted in big spots, though looked good in a win against the Cowboys, it’s admittedly hard to find where the wins will come on the schedule.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The NFC South loves to NFC South, however, so I would expect Tampa Bay to split with Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans. From there, Week 13 against the Chargers at home looks very winnable as Los Angeles is off to an 0-5 start with injuries beginning to pile up.

I’ll give them a win there, bringing the total to five. But after that, it would take a really strong argument to be presented as to how the Bucs are going to pull off upsets against the Steelers, Bears, Lions, Ravens, and Rams.

I don’t see it, so I have no choice but to pencil these Bucs in as a 5-12 team in 2026.