The past can inform the future. We see this all the time. Past actions give us insight into future possibilities. And one place we can try to apply this idea to is the Bucs draft targets. With the teams recent signing of Greg Gaines and re-signing of Pat O’Connor to help bolster their depth along the defensive line, the position may not be as much of a glaring need. However, it should still be a position of priority for the Bucs.

Gaines and O’Connor are both only signed for 2023 and set to be free agents again next offseason. And then the Bucs will be back to only having star Vita Vea and unproven Logan Hall on the roster.

Investing in depth along the interior trenches would be a wise move for head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht. But which prospects could be a target for the team? Obviously much goes into a team’s evaluation for each player. Tape study, production analysis and interviews are a large portion of grading. But athletic testing matters as well. And while athletic testing is not the end all, be all – it can create some guidelines and act as a screening process of sorts.

I took a look back through Bowles’ draft history at the position to try to determine what some of the athletic testing measurement thresholds he has for the position and then attempted to apply it to this draft class to see if I could potentially narrow down some of the Bucs targets for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Bowles Has Drafted Eight D-Linemen Since 2014

Bowles first became a defensive coordinator in 2013 with the Arizona Cardinals. I decided to make that the start point of my analysis. In his inaugural season as a DC the Cardinals did not select an interior defensive lineman.

But since then, they he has been a part of organizations that have taken eight interior defensive linemen. They are Ed Stinson (Cardinals, 2014), Leonard Williams, Deon Simon (Jets, 2015), Folorunso Fatukasi (Jets, 2018), Nathan Shepherd (Jets, 2018), Terry Beckner (Bucs, 2019), Khalil Davis (Bucs, 2020) and Logan Hall (Bucs, 2022).

Finding Measurement Thresholds

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Looking at those eight players I pulled their relevant Combine testing measurements from their draft years using various sites (@mathbomb’s RAS, MockDraftable.com, and NFL.com). These testing measurements included height, weight, arm length, 40-yard dash time, 10-yard split time, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone time, short shuttle time, bench press, and Kent Lee Platte’s (@mathbomb) all-encompassing Relative Athletic Score.

Not every one of those eight players tested in every one of those categories. So given the small sample size to begin with and that added caveat there is going to be some signal noise. However, the goal of this exercise wasn’t to precisely identify who the Bucs will take in the upcoming draft, but rather create some guardrails to potentially rule some players out and allow myself, and you the reader, some added context to possibly narrow who we may focus on as a more likely target for Tampa Bay.

The results that I found allowed me to create some likely thresholds to narrow this year’s crop of defensive linemen. Seven of the eight players Bowles has been a part of drafting measured at least 75 inches tall (6-foot-3). The lone exception was Davis in 2020 who was just 6-foot-1. Six of the players drafted were at least 296 pounds. Bowles broke that trend last year with Hall (283 pounds, but at 6-foot-6) and with his first pick back in 2014 with Stinson (287).

Davis was again the outlier when it came to arm length, having the shortest arms at 31.5 inches. Everyone else came in at 32.25 inches or longer. The 40-times seemed to be all over the place, with three players running sub-5 second times (Davis, Hall, Williams) and two clocking in at almost 5.2 seconds or slower (Beckner, Fatukasi). What is a bit interesting is that Davis and Hall were the last two picks by Bowles, so it may be an area he is evolving his criterion on.

Bucs DT Logan Hall – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The 10-yard splits had a narrower distribution or results, with six of seven (who tested) coming in under 1.8 seconds. Beckner was the lone exception. Almost every one of the players who tested in the vertical jump logged a 29.5 result or better. Beckner, a seventh-round pick, again was the lone exception.

The broad jump had four of the five testers hit 105 inches (8’9) or better. I’ll let you guess which player came in lower at 8’4. I’ll give you a hint. It was Beckner.

Four of the six who tested in the three-cone produced sub-7.6 times. Only Simon and Beckner did not. And four of six timed at 4.53 seconds or better in the short shuttle (Simon and Beckner again did not make the cut).

Only four of the eight players attempted the bench press. Three of the four hit 32 reps (Davis, Fatukasi and Simon). Poor Terry Beckner was once again the ugly duckling of the group.

Seven of the eight athletes logged enough drills for Kent Lee Platte’s RAS system to generate scores for them. Stinson did not test in his draft year, so no score was available for him. Hall had the best RAS score at 9.83. Following him were Davis (9.57), Shepherd (9.2), Williams (8.97), Fatukasi (8.57), and Simon (7.47). At this point I feel like I am just picking on Beckner (I promise, it is not intentional), but he did round out the group with and RAS of 2.17.

With this information I created some thresholds to look at the current slate of defensive tackles for 2023. They are as follows:

Height: at least 6-foot-3

Weight: at least 296 pounds

Arm Length: at least 32.375 inches

40-time: 5.10 seconds

10-yard split: 1.80 seconds

Vertical: 29.5 inches

Broad: 8’9

3-cone: 7.60 seconds

Short Shuttle: 4.65 seconds

Bench Press: 30 reps

RAS: 8.50

Applying The Thresholds To The 2023 Draft Class

Here is how the current crop of prospects stacks up to these thresholds.

*Mazi Smith only tested in the vertical and broad jump at his pro day and only did the bench press at the NFL Combine. The rest of the numbers are from reports referenced in Bruce Feldman of the Athletic’s annual “Freaks List”.

Now the goal of this exercise isn’t to find someone who is green in every area and say, “He’s the guy!” If only it were that simple. But what we can do is look for a group of players who meet these testing thresholds in more categories than not to narrow down this selection to players the Bucs may be more likely to be interested in. We can also use this to potentially rule out a few players as just not being fits.

Eight of the 21 players met the threshold in three or fewer categories. I think we can reasonably rule out Calijay Kancey, Siaki Ika, Keondre Coburn, Byron Young, Jerrod Clark, D.J. Dale, and PJ Mustipher as potential fits. Jalen Carter is the more interesting case.

The consensus No. 1 defensive tackle in the draft did not get a chance to do athletic testing at the NFL Combine due to a legal matter and then opted not to participate in them at Georgia’s pro day last week. But he meets all of the criterion in terms of body type. Ultimately, he is most likely a moot point as he will most likely not be on the board when the Bucs pick at No. 19 even with the off-the-field issues that are now circling him.

Defensive Tackles Who Most Fit What The Bucs Look For

South Carolina DT Zacch Pickens – Photo by: USA Today

Four players meet the thresholds in eight or more of the 11 categories. They are Mazi Smith from Michigan, Moro Ojomo from Texas, Zacch Pickens from South Carolina, and Date Stills from West Virginia. Smith meets the criteria for every single category he has a reported result for. He profiles as a nose tackle and could be a very intriguing option for the Bucs as he would allow Vita Vea to play more three-technique in addition to spelling him.

Ojomo was close to a clean sweep, coming up three pounds short in weight and one rep short in the bench press. What is interesting with him is that while he meets the threshold often, it is usually not by much. His height is the exact minimum, his 40-time and 10-yard splits are not far off the bottom lines for each category.

Pickens, who had a formal meeting with the Bucs at the NFL Scouting Combine, hits the athleticism marks Bowles and the Bucs look for in every area except weight (291 vs. 296) and bench press (22 vs. 30). Stills similarly missed the weight and bench press cut-offs while also missing the vertical jump minimum as well.

Over the coming days I will provide draft profiles on each of these four players to see if their tape, production, intangibles and projected draft position match up with the Bucs needs. Stay on the lookout!