The Bucs will come home for a Week 3 matchup against the Broncos and the vibes couldn’t be more different between the two teams. Denver is 0-2 and reeling. The Bucs are coming off of an enormous win over the Detroit Lions to propel them to 2-0.

Here is a scouting report of the Broncos. We previewed the matchup on the Pewter Report Podcast but here are the full notes.

Broncos Key Offensive Stats

• EPA/Play                    -0.31         28th
• Success Rate                 27.5%       31st
• EPA/Pass                      -0.47         29th
• EPA/Run                       -0.19         23rd
• 1st Down Pass Rate     51.4%        8th

Broncos Offensive Personnel Usage

• 11P (3WR-1RB-1TE)      60.90%      17th
• 12P (2WR-1RB-2TE)     11.60%       25th
• 13P (1WR-1RB-3TE)      7.20%        4th
• 21P (2WR-2RB-1TE)     4.30%        13th
• 22P (1WR-2RB-2TE)     1.40%        12th
• 20P (3WR-2RB-0TE)    4.30%        2nd

Run Game Breakdown

QB Bo Nix Notes

Broncos QB Bo Nix – Photo by: USA Today

• Rookie Bo Nix is currently 29th among qualified passers in EPA/dropback at -0.41. He struggles to push the ball downfield with just six passes of 20+ air yards, and one of those was a Hail Mary in an end of game situation. In the intermediate area of the field (11-20 yds) he ranks just 20th in % of throws and is dead last in EPA/dropback.
• Part of Nix’s issues in that area of the field is his penchant for trying to find dig routes in the middle of the field where defensive traffic is heaviest. 70% of his intermediate throws were to a dig or cross and he lacks the arm strength or faith in his ability to hit a deep developing out route.
• Often a one-read-and-check down quarterback. Almost 50% of his short passes were to a rb, over the ball, stick or flat check down after first read was deemed not viable. He has shown almost no evidence of progressing to a second or third read.
• One area Nix has shown positives is in evading pressure. Despite being the fourth-most pressured quarterback in the league, with 32 pressures, he has taken just four sacks and ranks fourth in pressure-to-sack ratio.

OL Notes

• RG Quinn Meinerz, despite reputation, can be a weak link in pass protection. Struggles to stop opponents from crossing his face.
• Line can struggle to sustain blocks against exotic games (stunts/twists)
• LG Ben Powers lacks foot speed, anchor and athleticism to be a net plus in pass pro
• RT Mike McGlinchey generally holds up well in pass pro but can underset and allow opponents to cross his face on inside counters. But he’ll miss the game after being placed on IR. Matt Peart is the likely replacement, and he struggles with pad level and footwork.

Receiver Notes

• Lack a true third receiver and someone who can win shallow on designed quick routes.
• Both top options (Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds) have high aDOT’s (over 10 yds)
• TE Greg Dulcich is de facto #3. Athletic and can win after the catch, but unreliable hands and struggles in-line as a blocker.
• Top receiver Courtland Sutton is a sideline ball-winner. Does not match well with QB.

RB Notes

• Not much room to work with.
• Javonte Williams doesn’t have the greatest vision and can bail front side of the zone even with lanes.
• Both running backs have forced some missed tackles but are towards the bottom of the league in yards after contact.

Recommended Game Plan vs. Broncos Offense

• 

  Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

  Heavy Cover 3.

• Lots of buzz technique by linebackers (potentially from rotated alignments)
• Lots of pre-snap MOFO with heavy post-snap rotation
• Post-snap rotations
• On 3×1’s match Courtland Sutton to boundary and rotate coverage heavy to middle of field and concept.
• Have corners work for inside leverage against receivers
• Heavy fire zone blitzes and sim pressures
• Goals are to flood the middle of the field with buzz defenders from unexpected places and allow corners to pinch dig routes for turnovers. Bring unexpected rushers that will challenge the offensive line and confuse the QB. Leave flats relatively open for quick checkdowns and rally and tackle.

Broncos Key Defensive Stats

• EPA/Play            -0.07         14th
• Success Rate       45.3%       21st
• EPA/Pass            -0.20         9th
• EPA/Run             -0.08        17th
• Pressure %          44.6%       2nd
• Blitz %                  48.2%      1st
• Time To Press     2.47s        4th

Defensive Notes

• Most blitzes are coming from linebackers, Alex Singleton and Cody Barton.
• Will use a lot of 2-4-5 nickels and 3-5-3 with 3 edge rushers
• CB Pat Surtain will likely follow Mike Evans, even into slot. Can counter with Snap Motion from Chris Godwin/Jalen McMillan/Trey Palmer from condensed split to Evans’ outside.
• CB Riley Moss can get turned on corner-post routes
• Heavy man coverage team
• DL Zach Allen is a disrupting force inside and should command most double teams
• Good rotation of edge rushers who all can create pressure in 1-vs-1 situations
  • Jonathon Cooper
  • Nik Bonitto
  • Baron Browning
• DE John Franklin Myers works as heavy edge who will play a lot of 5T and 4i. He will also rotate inside about 25% of the time.
• LB Alex Singleton is a strong player in both run defense and pass coverage.

Recommended Game Plan vs. Broncos Defense

• 

  Bucs OC Liam Coen and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

  Lots of 5- and 6-man protections

• Test Riley Moss with motions to him and switch routes
• Heavy play-action with corner-post and post-corner routes
• Lots of mesh/switch
• Use Mike Evans on at least two Sluggo (slant-go) routes in man situations
• Go back to the Jalen McMillan slot fade from week 1
• Quick game, screens and hots on the ready
• Run more gap runs like trap, crunch and power

Watch the Bucs vs. Broncos Preview On The Pewter Report Podcast

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds and Matt Matera spent much of Wednesday’s Pewter Report Podcast previewing the Bucs vs. Broncos game. Check it out on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel.