The Bucs are 0-1 for the first time since 2020, and when they return to Raymond James Stadium Sunday afternoon to host the 0-1 Browns in their 2026 home opener, they’ll be looking to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2014.

This game, of course, has the clear storyline of Baker Mayfield — fresh off signing a three-year, $165 million contract with the Bucs — playing against the Browns, who drafted him No. 1 overall in 2018. Mayfield was supposed to be the answer to Cleveland’s long-running quarterback problems, and for a moment there, he was. In fact, he took the Browns to the playoffs in 2020, and that marked the franchise’s first postseason appearance since 2002. Not only that, but he led the team to its first playoff win since the 1994 season.

Only two years later, the Browns sent him packing. They traded for Deshaun Watson — off-field problems and all — and gave him a five-year, $230 million deal that was fully guaranteed. Mayfield was traded to Carolina, where he spent only half of the 2022 campaign before beginning a career revival late that year in a short stint with the Rams.

In 2023, of course, Mayfield signed a prove-it deal with the Bucs, beat out Kyle Trask for the right to replace the retired Tom Brady and helped his new team to another NFC South title and a playoff win. After signing a three-year, $100 million deal following that season, he had a career year in 2024 and wound up signing another big extension just a couple weeks ago.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Since the Browns chose Watson over Mayfield in 2022, Watson has started only 20 games over four-plus seasons and has gone 9-11 in those games with 3,570 yards and 20 touchdowns to 13 interceptions and five fumbles lost. Meanwhile, Mayfield found a home with the Bucs. He has started 52 games for Tampa Bay in three-plus seasons, going 27-25 with two playoff appearances, a playoff win, 12,453 yards and 95 touchdowns to 37 interceptions (granted, with 11 fumbles lost). He earned Pro Bowl selections in 2023 and 2024, too.

Mayfield has already proven the Browns’ choice to be a bad one, and Watson has done his share of helping in that department, too. Now, the two will square off for the first time with their respective teams.

After offering a general preview Thursday, let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in Tampa Bay’s home opener.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Browns Matchup?

The Bucs are the better team here. There’s really no disputing that. But turnovers are one of the great equalizers in the game of football, so if Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense are careless with the ball this Sunday (see Week 1), it’ll give Cleveland a lifeline back into this game. A clean game from Mayfield, though? That would have the home team in a great position against a Browns defense that allowed 34 points a week ago.

Because of those aforementioned turnovers in their Week 1 loss and the fact that they fell behind 21-3 as a result, the Bucs largely got away from the run in that game. Bucky Irving averaged 4.5 yards per carry, but he had only eight carries on the day. It’s hard to imagine that was in the plans for Zac Robinson, and he said it himself on Thursday that he has to get the ball to No. 7 more often. Look for him to follow through on that from the jump in this one.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Going to Irving and Kenny Gainwell early and often — and finding success with them on the ground — will give the Buccaneer offense the edge it’s looking for. After all, that would help keep the Browns defense on its heels while also giving even more to work from in the play-action passing attack. Robinson ran play-action quite a bit last week — and did so successfully.

Staying the course with that and adding more of a balance to the offense through the backfield is the next step. The game flow dictated things in Cincinnati. You can imagine that Robinson will have more available to him this week as long as Tampa Bay doesn’t find itself in an unexpected early hole.

Defensively for the Bucs, getting some pass rush out of the front four is the key in this one. The supposedly revamped four-man pass rush was a non-factor in last week’s loss to the Bengals, with Joe Burrow being the least-pressured quarterback in the league in Week 1 and the only sack for Tampa Bay coming on a blitz from Josiah Trotter.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs need more — or at least something — out of Yaya Diaby, Rueben Bain Jr. and Vita Vea against this Browns team. It can’t all be Calijah Kancey wreaking havoc up front. If the four-man rush can get to Deshaun Watson early in Sunday’s game, it’ll speed him up and create opportunities for takeaways. Not only that, but it’ll also open up plenty more for Todd Bowles as far as his blitzes and exotic pressures go.

Speaking of Watson, he has to figure it out fast. Vibes in Cleveland — especially around the veteran quarterback — are awful. His Week 1 performance did zero to silence his critics, as he threw an interception on the game’s first drive and was sacked five times. Per Pro Football Focus, the Browns offensive line wasn’t responsible for any of those five sacks. They were all on Watson, whose continued struggles have speculation running rampant that at some point — perhaps even soon — it’ll be Shedeur Sanders time again for Cleveland under center.

Browns QBs Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Browns won’t win this game with poor quarterback play, so it’s on Watson to get them going. Or, if head coach Todd Monken has a quick hook, it’ll be on Sanders, a second-year quarterback, to stir something up for Cleveland on the offensive side of the ball. There’s some young talent to work with, whether it’s running back Quinshon Judkins, rookie receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, veteran receiver Jerry Jeudy or tight end Harold Fannin Jr., but it all starts under center. That’s a fact that Browns fans have been reminded of all too often over the years.

With all that said for the visiting team’s offense, it’ll likely be the defense that has to step up and make life difficult for the Buccaneer offense in order to make this a game. Myles Garrett is gone, but Jared Verse, Mason Graham, Carson Schwesinger and Denzel Ward is a good core to work with on the defensive side of the ball for Cleveland. Verse, Graham and the rest of the Browns’ front will need to create chaos around Baker Mayfield as much as possible. If he’s kept clean and is able to stay on time without getting happy feet in the pocket, the Bucs offense should be able to roll.

Limiting explosive plays in the passing game will also be a must for the Cleveland defense. In Week 1, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence had touchdown passes of 30 and 32 yards, while also hitting on passes of 22, 18 and 22 yards that contributed to scoring drives. Ward is a great CB1, but the Browns are searching for answers elsewhere in the secondary. That’s not a good spot to be in when you’re about to face a receiving corps like the Bucs’, which features Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., a returning Jalen McMillan, Ted Hurst III and Tez Johnson. 

Key Players To Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Baker Mayfield has to be the spotlight player for the Bucs offense this week against his former team. As much as Tampa Bay’s QB1 wants to downplay his feelings about this matchup with Cleveland, we’ve seen for years just how much he uses any sort of slight against him to his advantage. You can bet he’ll want to have a big game and lead the Bucs to a win in their 2026 home opener, but it’s highly important that he stays within himself and doesn’t try to go overboard and do too much. A clean, smoothly operated game is what Mayfield needs in Week 2, especially after a mistake-filled performance in Week 1.

Who else could we spotlight on the Buccaneer defense other than rookie inside linebacker Josiah Trotter? The 2026 second-round pick had quite the debut in Cincinnati, making two splash plays in the second half. For starters, it was his first career sack to end a Bengals drive. Soon after, he came through with a pick-six off Joe Burrow to get Tampa Bay back in the game. He’ll be looking to follow up that big performance with another in front of the home fans this Sunday.

Harold Fannin Jr. has to scare you if you’re a Bucs fan, especially after watching Mike Gesicki once again exploit the Tampa Bay defense’s issues with covering the tight end position. Fannin, a 2025 third-round pick, had 72 catches for 731 yards (10.2 avg.) and six touchdowns as a rookie, and there should be no doubt that Todd Monken will be looking to test Todd Bowles’ defense and its ability (or lack thereof) when it comes to dealing with the Browns’ impressive young tight end.

Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

While Myles Garrett is gone and there simply is no replacing him, the Browns did get Jared Verse back in that trade with the Rams. The 25-year-old pass rusher made the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons with the Rams before being sent to Cleveland, and while he was held in check in his debut last week, he’ll be looking to get after Baker Mayfield Sunday afternoon. The 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year, joined by the 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year in linebacker Carson Schwesinger, will have to lead the way for the Cleveland defense if the Browns are going to have a shot in this one.