Coming off a 43-13 win over the Panthers in Charlotte last week – their first win by 30+ points since beating the Panthers 48-14 in Week 17 of the 2024 season – the 2-5 Bucs return to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday to host the 3-4 Falcons in another crucial NFC South matchup.

That Week 7 victory was only Tampa Bay’s second win of the season, and it was its second away from home. After the team’s first win of the season at Dallas in Week 5, it returned home and let the Buccaneers faithful down with a fourth straight home loss. Now, after picking up another road victory, it’s time for some redemption with Atlanta in town.

Given the nature of the NFC South – the NFL’s worst division – this game between the 2-5 Bucs and 3-4 Falcons actually comes with a whole lot of meaning. After Carolina lost to Green Bay on Thursday Night Football, Atlanta has a chance to take over first place in the division with a win at Raymond James Stadium. On the flip side, a Tampa Bay win would mean second place in the division through eight weeks and just a half-game deficit in the race for the lead.

This is likely to be a close game, too, as the last six meetings between these two sides have been decided by one possession.

Plus, after the Bucs failed to capitalize off their Week 5 win and immediately returned to the loss column in Week 6, it bears repeating that this team hasn’t won back-to-back games since Weeks 5 and 6 of last season. Todd Bowles and Co. would very much like to change that this Sunday, especially with a very difficult Sunday Night Football matchup in Chicago looming in Week 9.

Off the back of a more general preview Thursday morning, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this critical Week 8 contest at Ray Jay:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Falcons Matchup?

The Tampa weather could turn out to be one of the biggest factors in this game. As of this writing late Thursday night, rain is expected at points – if not throughout – Sunday’s game at Raymond James Stadium. Rain chances range between 55% and 75% throughout the late morning into the late afternoon, so this could be a wet one. It could also be a windy one, with speeds of 11 to 13 mph. You would think the Tampa-based team would fare better than the team that plays its home games indoors, but this Buccaneers team hasn’t always looked comfortable in the rain.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – via Reuters Connect

Given the expected rain and the fact that it’s simply their biggest and possibly only strength on offense, the Bucs would likely love to lean on Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell and maybe even Sean Tucker on the ground throughout this Week 8 matchup. Running the football well has been the key to both of Tampa Bay’s wins this season, with 241 rushing yards against Dallas and 258 against Carolina.

The only problem? Atlanta ranks fourth in the league in run defense. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson still needs to try to get the rushing attack going against his former team, but if it’s tougher sledding, he’ll need better out of Baker Mayfield and the passing game.

That’s where this Tampa Bay offense is so interesting – or frustrating. We’ve seen this unit beat teams with bad run defenses by pounding the rock with Irving and the rest of the backfield. But we haven’t seen Mayfield and the passing game win a game against a team with a suspect pass defense. Are the Bucs capable of that? So far, they haven’t been. Sunday will be another chance, as the Falcons are 29th in the league against the pass. Can Mayfield get the ball to his playmakers more regularly in this one and play a key role in a much-needed home victory?

With the threat of rain and slippery conditions, perhaps this is the rare occasion where Robinson’s heavy emphasis on the short passing game could work to Tampa Bay’s benefit? Granted, Bucs pass-catchers are going to have to battle the potentially slippery field and keep their feet themselves, but if they can do that, maybe there will be some more opportunity for yards after catch if Atlanta defenders struggle to rally to the football and finish tackles.

Defensively for the Bucs, there should be two main objectives. On the one hand, Bijan Robinson is always a threat both as a runner and as a receiver out of the backfield. Tampa Bay’s No. 2 run defense needs to come to play in this matchup and both win in the trenches and see the guys at the second level step up and make tackles. Obviously, Todd Bowles will need a good plan for his defense to handle Robinson as a pass catcher, too.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

The other big objective will be to stop tight end Kyle Pitts. Most teams throughout the league have figured out how to handle the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 Draft, but the Bucs haven’t. Bowles’ defense has fared better against tight ends since that Week 1 debacle in Cincinnati with Mike Gesicki, and now it’s time to solve Pitts.

It also goes without saying that a performance like the ones it had against Pittsburgh and Carolina would have the Buccaneers defense in a good spot to carry this team to another victory. The group had five sacks and a takeaway against the Steelers and picked up five more sacks and three takeaways (with a fourth on special teams) against the Panthers. That’s hard to sustain, but if the Bucs can get after the quarterback, wreak some havoc and take the ball away, it’ll obviously position them well in their quest for a third victory in four weeks.

On the Falcons’ side, there’s no doubt that they would also like to lean on the run regardless of the weather conditions but perhaps even more so if it’s wet and rainy. Bijan Robinson is one of the most electric playmakers in the NFL, and the Bucs having a top-two run defense in the league won’t stop the Falcons from going heavy on their star running back. If he can break off a big run or create an explosive play out of the backfield in the passing game, that could prove to be the difference in what is likely to be another close game between these two teams.

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the Falcons do have to lean on the passing game, they’ll need Michael Penix Jr. to fare far better than Bryce Young did for the Panthers last week when he saw this Bucs defense. Tampa Bay is coming off a five-sack, three-takeaway performance that included interceptions from Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith and a sack-fumble forced by Al-Quadin Muhammad that was recovered by Calijah Kancey for a touchdown.

Penix has to avoid disaster plays against this defense, or it’s going to be a problem for the visitors. He’s done a good job of that thus far for Atlanta since returning from injury, but Young had done well on that front for Carolina prior to last week.

It’ll help Penix and the Falcons’ aerial attack if some of their other weapons outside the big three can produce. Tampa Bay will obviously key in on Robinson both as a runner and receiver, while Pitts is an obvious threat given his history against this defense. Meanwhile, Drake London is Penix’s clear No. 1 receiver and while he’s had his own successes against the Bucs in the past, this year’s defense has done an incredible job at taking top receivers out of the game.

If that happens again, can this offense get enough from the likes of Jahan Dotson? He’s the only Falcon outside of London, Robinson and Pitts with more than 100 receiving yards this year. Zachariah Branch, a third-round pick in this year’s draft, does have 10 catches on 12 targets this season, but those 10 catches have only gone for 64 yards. If Tampa Bay succeeds at limiting London, Robinson and Pitts – at least to a reasonable extent – does Atlanta have enough elsewhere to muster up anything offensively?

Falcons DT Gervon Dexter – Photo by: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Falcons do have the No. 4 run defense in the league, but they haven’t shut down every running back they’ve seen by any means. Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry against them in Week 1. Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard averaged 4.4 in Week 2, while Baltimore’s Derrick Henry averaged 4.4 in Week 5 and broke the 100-yard mark. Chicago running backs combined for three rushing touchdowns in Week 6, too.

So, it’s up to the Atlanta defensive line to win in the trenches and shut down the Tampa Bay run game early before it has a chance to really ramp up the way it did last week. That’ll be a tall task against a Buccaneers offensive line that has to be feeling itself right now, but if the Falcons can do it, it’ll go a long way toward a win.

Something else worth keeping in mind as a potential deciding factor in this game is how prepared Jeff Ulbrich has his defense for a Zac Robinson offense that he/it knows very well. Obviously, Robinson knows Ulbrich’s defense intimately, too, so the winner of that chess match on Sunday could wind up playing a big role in determining the winner of the game itself.

Key Players To Watch

Bucky Irving seems to be the key to the Bucs offense these days, and that’ll likely be the case again on Sunday. The third-year back out of Oregon is up to 558 yards and four touchdowns on 120 carries over seven games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. His monstrous days against Dallas and Carolina were key to Tampa Bay’s two victories, and it wouldn’t make much sense to go away from what works – even against a good Atlanta run defense. If Irving can create some yards and find some explosive plays, it could open things up just enough for the Buccaneers offense to get the job done in this one.

On the Tampa Bay defense, the key player this week is rookie inside linebacker Josiah Trotter. He’s been a sight to behold through his first six career games, having posted 62 tackles (30 solo), a sack, three tackles for loss, three passes defensed and an interception while posting a very respectable 62.5 coverage grade, per PFF. He’ll be tested in a big way this Sunday both when it comes to the Falcons’ rushing attack behind Bijan Robinson and in terms of coverage, whether he draws the responsibility of dealing with Robinson out of the backfield or Kyle Pitts from the tight end position.

Bucs ILB Josiah Trotter – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Pitts has to be the focus here on the Falcons offense given what he’s done to Todd Bowles’ defenses, particularly in games at Raymond James Stadium. He has 44 catches for 629 yards (14.3 avg.) and six touchdowns in eight career games against the Bucs. In Tampa, he’s gone for 73 yards (2021), 47 yards (2023), 91 yards and two touchdowns (2024) and 166 yards and three touchdowns (2025). If the Buccaneers defense doesn’t deal with him, he has the potential to win the Falcons the game. That’s what happened the last time these two teams met, when he recorded those 166 yards and three touchdowns by catching 11 of his 12 targets.

The biggest playmaker on the Atlanta defense continues to be veteran safety Jessie Bates III. He’s fresh off a performance against the 49ers last week that saw him record both an interception and a forced fumble in the same game for the sixth time in his career. That’s the second-most in the NFL over the past 40 seasons, and he trails only Rod Woodson, who had seven such games. One of those six games came against the Bucs, and in eight career games against them, he has two interceptions (including a pick-six), three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.