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In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: The Bucs Run Game Is As Good As You Think It Is

The Bucs run game is performing at a historic clip right now. After leading the league in rushing in Week 7 with 258 yards, they doubled down in Week 8 with another 324 yards. Their 168.6 rushing yards per game is almost 18 yards ahead of the second-place Chicago Bears. That shows a blend of efficiency and commitment. Tampa Bay is 7th in EPA/rush and 7th in rushing success rate. But with a passing game that hasn’t found a groove, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is leaning as far into the run game as he possibly can.

What’s been most encouraging about the success is how Robinson is embracing a varied rushing attack that incorporates all different types of concepts. No single concept makes up 30% of their designed runs this year (excluding scrambles, sneaks, trick plays and kneels). And outside zone, Robinson’s bread and butter in Atlanta is just 22% of their run calls this year. In terms of variety, the Bucs have one of the most diverse run games in the league.

The Bucs most successful run concept this year has been inside zone, where they are averaging 7.3 yards per carry and generating a successful run on 62% of their calls. Those calls allow their linemen to get on top of and overwhelm linebackers who stall on getting downhill.

Working off that inside zone the Bucs throw out an amazing counter punch. And I do mean counter. Tampa Bay has run counter almost twice as much as the next closest team in the NFL. At 17% of their total run calls. Those runs are averaging 5.3 yards per carry with a success rate of 52%.

Bucs Entire Offense Embracing The Run

Football is at it’s best when all 11 players are on the same page. And with Tampa Bay’s run game all 11 players are fully bought in to kicking ass on the ground. Tristan Wirfs is playing some of his best ball as a run blocker this year. He is sealing tackles and walling off flowing linebackers to create the inside wall on so many of those counter runs.

Graham Barton has turned into one of the eight best centers in the game. The reason the Bucs were so adamant about Barton as a center is because of his unique size and movement ability. Most centers are small and nimble.

Barton has the lateral quickness and ability to win in space but pairs it with size (height is 95th percentile for centers and weight is 82nd percentile) and strength and he becomes a unique weapon capable of handling almost anything a defense throws at him. And as his snap to punch timing has improved, he is finally ascending to the player they thought he could be.

After a rough start to the season Cody Mauch is now back to his terrorizing ways, and he and Luke Goedeke have turned back into the formidable double duo they were in 2024. And speaking of Goedeke.

The entire line (Ben Bredeson included) has been laying defenses out and creating opportunities for the backs to thrive. But it goes beyond just the line. The entire tight end room — Cade Otton, Payne Durham and Bauer Sharp — have been playing at an incredibly high level as run blockers. Between kick outs, seals, base blocks, split flows and pulls all three have been creating lanes and lead blocking better than potentially any other tight end room in the NFL.

And the wide receivers have gotten in on the action as well. Chris Godwin may not be lighting up the stat sheet as a pass catcher, but his impact on the game as an insert blocker and sealing the outside by cracking edges and linebackers or dominating defensive backs have been critical to the explosive runs the Bucs have been able to rip off over the last few weeks.

Add in a dash of contact balance and spectacular vision in space from Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell – Gainwell is fifth in the NFL (minimum 50 carries) in missed tackle forced rate while Irving is 5th in missed tackles forced volume – and you have a run game that is lights out.

Bucs Rb Bucky Irving

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

Full commitment from all 11 players each executing at a high level mixed with a varied attack that truly has the defense guessing and the Bucs have been on a historic run (pun intended).

Finance: Calijah Kancey’s Market Just Got Set

The Bucs just found the most relevant data point when looking at Calijah Kancey’s value if they want to re-sign him long term. The team doesn’t have to make a decision right away, though. Kancey is under contract through 2027. The team exercised his fifth-year option this past offseason and will pay him $14,475,000 next year.

The Colts just extended their own defensive tackle from the 2023 NFL Draft, Adetomiwa Adeboware. The deal is for two years and $35 million and at an average of $17.5 million per year.

This is an important data point for Kancey and the Bucs because of the similarities in the two player’s production since they entered the league. Data courtesy Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus.

Calijah Kancey Adetomiwa Adeboware Comparison

The two players have similar pressure and stop rates, are close in total sacks (although Adeboware on far fewer pass rushes) with Kancey dominating in tackles for loss. Both have had issues with time on the field, Kancey due to injury while Adeboware was more of a long-term project before he saw his playing time increase over the past two seasons.

Adeboware is on a production upswing which is fueling a surge in his valuation. Meanwhile Kancey has yet to record a sack and his pressure rate overall is down from the beginning of his career. But Kancey has the benefit of draft pedigree, and the tape is far more bullish than the production belies.  If he can’t pick up the production it could mean the Bucs have a shot at getting him at a slight discount from Adeboware’s APY. But overall, this is the market for a smaller, quicker, pass rushing three-technique.

Forecast: Bucs Will Stand Pat At The Trade Deadline

What a difference two weeks makes. The Bucs are now just half a game out of first place for the NFC South lead and hold extremely important divisional tie breakers over the Falcons and Panthers. After their 0-4 start, many speculated, and full disclosure myself included, that they might turn into full sellers at the trade deadline.

That now feels like a distant memory. Even if Tampa Bay loses to the Bears on Sunday Night Football in Week 9, they are still firmly in the hunt for the playoffs. I doubt anyone in their front office, most certainly not general manager Jason Licht, will opt to sell off pieces. What is even more interesting is the fact that I can’t see them being buyers either. And not for the obvious reasons. Let’s imagine for a moment that Licht sees the defense as for real and the offense as on the rise. The division is imminently winnable as well. What would he trade for to upgrade the roster?

The offensive line is playing like the best unit in the NFL that he and many others thought it could be. The tight ends are an integral part of their run-first identity. The defense features strong contributors or significant investments at every level. There is only one glaring need that could realistically be a value-add. And that piece is hard to find in this market.

Bucs Gm Jason Licht

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

A true No. 1 X receiver is what the offense truly lacks. Mike Evans’ absence in this offense looms large. It is a major part of why the passing game is stalled. Filling those shoes has been a monumental task for the receivers left behind. Jalen McMillan was potentially a man-beater stand in, but his knee injury in Week 3 robbed the Bucs of that skillset. Ted Hurst III is still learning to play at the NFL level, but I still remain hopeful about him long-term. And Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka aren’t best suited for that dominant X role.

There are scant few true sellers who would be willing to part with an X. The only potential trade partner I see are the New York Jets with Garrett Wilson. But they already own three first-round picks in the 2027 NFL Draft. I don’t see a real impetus for them to make that deal. And that’s before draft capital the Bucs would have to part with is considered.

Jason Licht has never given up significant draft assets in trade. The closest he has come was trading a third-round pick for outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and a fourth-round pick in 2018 and a sixth/seventh swap for defensive tackle Steve McClendon in 2020. Sending early-round picks for a receiver with a large salary while the Bucs are 3-5 is way too risky. Licht should stand pat at the deadline. Hold serve and see what this roster can due with some renewed life.

Fun Fourth Down: Bauer Sharp’s Blocking

I’ve been a big fan of Bauer Sharp since watching his tape after the Bucs selected him in the sixth round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Sharp presents an interesting prospect because he is really athletic, with a strong blocking background. It gives offensive coordinator Zac Robinson an opportunity to line him up all over the field, interchangeably with starter Cade Otton, and take advantage of matchup advantages.

One of the first plays that jumped off the screen when I was watching his LSU tape was this fun rep.

Sharp has always taken pride in his blocking, dating back to his days at Oklahoma.

And now as the Bucs are using him more in 12 and 13 personnel packages, he has continued the pattern.

Sharp has been an excellent addition to a Bucs offense that has not been extremely successful this season. The Bucs offense generates +0.032 EPA/play and a 47.2% success rate when Sharp is on the field this year. And when he is off the field those numbers fall to -0.163 and 41.6%, respectively. Here’s to seeing more Sharp going forward.

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Joshua Queipo

Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.

Bucs Ilb Alex Anzalone - Photo By: Cliff Welch P/RBucs ILB Alex Anzalone Named NFC Defensive Player Of The Week
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