This year was poised to be a critical one for Chris Godwin Jr. Bucs general manager Jason Licht showed great faith in Godwin when he signed the receiver to a three-year, $66 million contract after a catastrophic ankle injury derailed a phenomenal season in 2024.

Godwin’s 2025 season hardly lived up to his contract as the long-time Buccaneer caught 33 passes for 360 yards and two touchdowns. Licht maintained from the moment he signed Godwin to his fourth contract (including the franchise tag Godwin played on in 2021), that 2025 was not the barometer for the success of the deal.

That’s fair. Lower body injuries of that magnitude usually require at least one season for players to regain their previous form. Which brings us back to how important 2026 is for Godwin and his future in Tampa Bay. And it’s not going well.

Through six games Godwin has just 23 receptions for 216 yards and no scores. At this pace he will finish the season with just 65 catches for 612 yards.

Chris Godwin Jr.’s Reduced Role With The Bucs

From 10,000 feet it’s easy to see his role in the offense is not what it was in 2024. But it’s more concerning when looking at the trajectory. Chris Godwin Jr.’s overall target share in the games he played in 2024 was 26.6%. Last year it was 18.3%. This year the number has fallen all the way to 15.6%. What I find most concerning isn’t just that his volume is down. It isn’t just that it’s down even with the departure of Mike Evans, who has been the Bucs’ No. 1 receiver for over a decade. It’s specifically the spots where it is down.

Godwin’s best usage has always been on first down where he can create easy yardage early in the drive, keeping the Bucs ahead of the chains; and on third down where his sure hands help convert short-to-medium needs into new sets of downs. His target profile by down in 2024 perfectly aligned with his profile. According to Sumer Sports, he was targeted on 1st down 25.3% of the time in 2024, generating +0.61 EPA target and a 70.8% success rate. On third down all three of those numbers improved to 36.8%, +0.73 EPA/target and 71.4%, respectively.

Last year, all of that fell. First down target share was nearly halved to 13.7% while EPA/target went slightly negative and success rate was 50/50. On third down his target rate was down 10% to 26.5% while his EPA/target was +0.13 and his success rate was even with his first down rate at 50%.

This year Godwin’s productivity on these downs has rebounded while his role in the offense continues to slide. First down target rate has is around the 2025 at 14.1%. Third down has cratered to just 13.5%. His EPA/target on third down is nearly identical to 2024 at +0.75/target and he’s been successful at exactly the same rate (71.4%).

What is driving that change? Godwin’s route tree has changed.

Godwin is running far fewer out routes and slants. These were staples of his at the height of his powers. They were also often how he ran via the choice route, where he read defender leverage and broke away from it. These days he has become more of a decoy, as the team leans more into Emeka Egbuka on third down. But Egbuka’s production just hasn’t matched that of the veteran. Egbuka has been targeted on 31% of the team’s 3rd-and-7 or less targets, generating a slightly positive EPA/play and a success rate of just 50%.

What To Do With Chris Godwin Jr.

Chris Godwin Jr. has become a $22 million conundrum. He’s not the 2019 version of himself. He’s not going to get behind defenses and stretch the field. But he’s still an effective piece when used properly. The best version of him was as a get-ahead and stay-ahead of the sticks receiver. And Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson hasn’t figured out how to use him that way this year.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin Jr. – Photo by: USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

At 1-5, it would make sense for the Bucs to try and trade him to a contender. Not just for a measly draft pick, as he won’t fetch much in terms of compensation, but to clear salary cap room and save cash next year. As I pointed out last week, his production-to-salary ratio makes that proposition quite difficult. If they hold on to him there is plenty of opportunity to get him more involved and improve the offense. If they choose to lean into it.