US virus deaths may top 80,000 despite confinement: study
https://news.yahoo.com/us-virus-deaths-may-top-80-000-despite-161924116.html
You can read the report yourself but the key issue in the report is SHORTAGE of medical care, which is to say that we flatten the curve, but not quickly enough. This is from the study:
"The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak -- also set for some point in April -- as many as 2,300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models.
This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures."
HERE'S THE POTENTIAL WEAK POINT OF THE ANALYSIS, ACCORDING TO SEVERAL EXPERTS;
"It forecast that a total of 21 US states will need more ICU beds than are currently available and that 12 states may need to increase their capacity by 50 percent or more to accommodate patient needs.
THE PREMISE OF TRUMP'S EASTER COMMENT IS THAT THE GROWTH WOULD NOT BE THIS LINEAR ie that we wouldn't get to 21 states being EXCESS OF AVAILABLE CARE
SOME WOULD ARGUE WHAT CUOMO HAS IMPLIED, THAT THE TRUMP ADMIN HAS NOT OFFERED MORE VENTILATORS BECAUSE THE STATE IS TOO FAR GONE SO THEY INTEND TO HOLD FOR STATES THAT ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP.
