5/4 Monday Contemplation: It’s Bowles Time to Make or Break

It’s been a while since I’ve shared a new Monday Contemplation, mostly because there’s been so much to follow… completing the draft and signing undrafted free agents. While everything seems to have gone well, we won’t truly understand the results for a few years.

With the draft behind us, we have plenty of time to reflect until training camp starts in July. My thoughts now center on Coach Todd Bowles, who gets another offseason to discover his “Aha moment.” He seems to have acquired more players that fit his scheme, at least for the time being.

Bowles’ Scheme Shift

A new year brings another chance to find solutions for the defensive struggles that have plagued the Buccaneers over the last four years. Bowles has consistently claimed he’ll figure things out on defense, whether or not he gets new players. While Jason Licht finds him a few players every year, Bowles tends to stick to the same scheme each year, resulting in similar outcomes.

Will this offseason be different? Will Bowles truly tweak his scheme, or will he merely devise some new blitz packages that work initially but get figured out as the season progresses? If so, we could find ourselves back in the cycle of a struggling four-man pass rush, poor coverage behind blitzes, and looking ahead to next year when hopefully we can add edge rushers to bolster his defense.

I’m not overly optimistic that Bowles will adapt his scheme, as old habits are hard to break. My hope is that the players will elevate their performance, similar to their success in 2020. That year, the front four—Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul—were absolute beasts. Put those four on any defense, and they’ll make any coordinator look like a genius.

This year, we have reason for optimism with the addition of Rueben Bain Jr., alongside a more experienced Yaya Diaby, a slightly past-his-prime Vita Vea, and, hopefully, a healthy Calijah Kancey. With key additions like OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad and DL A’Shawn Robinson, this group has the potential to provide solid run defense and pass rush, regardless of how Bowles chooses to run things.

3-4, Nickel, Dime, or all of Them?

Bowles is known as a 3-4 defensive coordinator, but his defense often plays nickel or variations thereof around 40% of the time. What will that look like this year? For several seasons, I’ve emphasized that offenses should exploit early downs against the Bucs’ defense, as Bowles heavily focuses on stopping the run. Teams that throw on first down have had considerable success—just look at the Rams game last year, where we deployed a 3-4 on every first down and looked completely lost as Matthew Stafford diced our lack of coverage the whole first half.

I’ve long hoped that Bowles would adopt a more flexible approach. Instead of always coming out with three defensive linemen and two outside linebackers on first down, mixing it up could yield better results. You can still run effective run defense schemes from various personnel looks. Last year, it was challenging to see five linemen on the field with only one linebacker, Sir Vocea Dennis, whose strengths lay in getting downhill quickly, but whose coverage skills were lacking.

My philosophy would be to employ a heavy run scheme with players who can quickly transition to coverage when a play turns into a pass. This approach requires personnel and alignment adjustments.

Personnel Usage

With Jason Licht providing Bowles with more tools in the front seven, including a wildcard like fourth-round pick Kionte Scott, the potential for mixing and matching players in different schemes is exciting.

Imagine utilizing Scott in a nickel role as the Will linebacker. He excels at filling run gaps and can also handle coverage responsibilities in the slot. This flexibility could be invaluable when facing offenses that come out in 13 personnel on first down.

There are also rumors that the Bucs might consider employing dime personnel, which makes sense given our roster when healthy. Alex Anzalone could serve as the lone linebacker, with Scott and Tykee Smith in the dime slots, with Roberts and Winfield at safety. Or by moving Parrish to the inside to pair with Scott and keep Smith and Winfield at safeties.

This setup allows for more speed in coverage and gives our new pass rushers the chance to pin their ears back and pursue the quarterback. We could rotate Bain, Diaby, Muhammad, and possibly David Walker at edge, even letting Bain play some under tackle in passing situations.

Final Word

Bowles has the tools to be flexible with his defense. I understand it’s challenging to step out of your comfort zone as a coach, but he must make some changes. He’s been around the NFL long enough for teams to predict his tendencies. This year, we need to see a different version of Bowles.