It’s been a while since I’ve shared a new Monday Contemplation, mostly because there’s been so much to follow… completing the draft and signing undrafted free agents. While everything seems to have gone well, we won’t truly understand the results for a few years.
With the draft behind us, we have plenty of time to reflect until training camp starts in July. My thoughts now center on Coach Todd Bowles, who gets another offseason to discover his “Aha moment.” He seems to have acquired more players that fit his scheme, at least for the time being.
Bowles’ Scheme Shift
A new year brings another chance to find solutions for the defensive struggles that have plagued the Buccaneers over the last four years. Bowles has consistently claimed he’ll figure things out on defense, whether or not he gets new players. While Jason Licht finds him a few players every year, Bowles tends to stick to the same scheme each year, resulting in similar outcomes.
Will this offseason be different? Will Bowles truly tweak his scheme, or will he merely devise some new blitz packages that work initially but get figured out as the season progresses? If so, we could find ourselves back in the cycle of a struggling four-man pass rush, poor coverage behind blitzes, and looking ahead to next year when hopefully we can add edge rushers to bolster his defense.
I’m not overly optimistic that Bowles will adapt his scheme, as old habits are hard to break. My hope is that the players will elevate their performance, similar to their success in 2020. That year, the front four—Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul—were absolute beasts. Put those four on any defense, and they’ll make any coordinator look like a genius.
This year, we have reason for optimism with the addition of Rueben Bain Jr., alongside a more experienced Yaya Diaby, a slightly past-his-prime Vita Vea, and, hopefully, a healthy Calijah Kancey. With key additions like OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad and DL A’Shawn Robinson, this group has the potential to provide solid run defense and pass rush, regardless of how Bowles chooses to run things.
3-4, Nickel, Dime, or all of Them?
Bowles is known as a 3-4 defensive coordinator, but his defense often plays nickel or variations thereof around 40% of the time. What will that look like this year? For several seasons, I’ve emphasized that offenses should exploit early downs against the Bucs’ defense, as Bowles heavily focuses on stopping the run. Teams that throw on first down have had considerable success—just look at the Rams game last year, where we deployed a 3-4 on every first down and looked completely lost as Matthew Stafford diced our lack of coverage the whole first half.
I’ve long hoped that Bowles would adopt a more flexible approach. Instead of always coming out with three defensive linemen and two outside linebackers on first down, mixing it up could yield better results. You can still run effective run defense schemes from various personnel looks. Last year, it was challenging to see five linemen on the field with only one linebacker, Sir Vocea Dennis, whose strengths lay in getting downhill quickly, but whose coverage skills were lacking.
My philosophy would be to employ a heavy run scheme with players who can quickly transition to coverage when a play turns into a pass. This approach requires personnel and alignment adjustments.
Personnel Usage
With Jason Licht providing Bowles with more tools in the front seven, including a wildcard like fourth-round pick Kionte Scott, the potential for mixing and matching players in different schemes is exciting.
Imagine utilizing Scott in a nickel role as the Will linebacker. He excels at filling run gaps and can also handle coverage responsibilities in the slot. This flexibility could be invaluable when facing offenses that come out in 13 personnel on first down.
There are also rumors that the Bucs might consider employing dime personnel, which makes sense given our roster when healthy. Alex Anzalone could serve as the lone linebacker, with Scott and Tykee Smith in the dime slots, with Roberts and Winfield at safety. Or by moving Parrish to the inside to pair with Scott and keep Smith and Winfield at safeties.
This setup allows for more speed in coverage and gives our new pass rushers the chance to pin their ears back and pursue the quarterback. We could rotate Bain, Diaby, Muhammad, and possibly David Walker at edge, even letting Bain play some under tackle in passing situations.
Final Word
Bowles has the tools to be flexible with his defense. I understand it’s challenging to step out of your comfort zone as a coach, but he must make some changes. He’s been around the NFL long enough for teams to predict his tendencies. This year, we need to see a different version of Bowles.
Will this offseason be different? Will Bowles truly tweak his scheme, or will he merely devise some new blitz packages that work initially but get figured out
This offseason has been a double down on Bowles, not a new Bowles. Stop the run, downhill LB and blitzing Nickel
@bucsbits - that’s the point. Everything is on the table for Bowles. Can he be more flexible with his scheme?
@bucsbits - that’s the point. Everything is on the table for Bowles. Can he be more flexible with his scheme?
I don't think so
Everything about the Bucs offseason suggest they are going back to Bowles core principles so that is why I say we are not seeing a change we are seeing a double down on those core principles.
I do think though that Bowles core principles - physical, downhill run stoping first - meshes with the trend to go 2 tight end rushing base on offense BUT how do they stop the short passing that killed them the last two years? Anzalone? Scott on the TE?
One would think the defense will be improved. Also, with a better OC and maybe better luck health wise, an improved offense
Also, would not expect Todd Bowles to be any different. The most "change" we got out of him is when it pained him to curse after the Falcons Thursday night collapse.
This will likely be the last year for Bowles.
the issue to me will be the schedule - AFC/NFC North, LAR, LAC, DAL. I know you never know as good teams become bad and bad teams good but it's not favorable at first glance.
We were 3-3 in the division last year and 4-2 in the years priors at our best. Is there any reason to think we wont be 3-3 again? Heck, for argument sakes, let's go 4-2 here
NFC North - roads games against DET and CHI likely spell losses. Home against Green Bay and Minnesota. I am seeing 1-3 but for argument sakes, let's go 2-2.
AFC North - Road games against assumed healthy CIN and BAL likely spell losses. Home against CLE and PIT i could see as wins even though 1-3 is possible. Let's go 2-2 here.
You then have @Dallas which last time we played they beat us with their back-up QB, and home games against Rams and Chargers. Rams have our number. Best case scenario here is 1-2.
So add it up and we are looking at a best case scenario at 9-8. It's no surprise that the over/under is set at 8.5 wins.
Baker, to me, is the wild card as to how this team does. Bowles should marginally have the defense better but you are still looking at a unit outside of the top 12 let's call it. If Baker is what he was in 2023/2025, then yeah, looking at 8,9 wins most likely. Potentially a playoff miss or first round exit and i am not sure if that keeps Bowles around.
If Baker performs at 2024 levels, then i could see us maybe squeaking out 2 other wins to get us to 10,11 wins.
Will this offseason be different? Will Bowles truly tweak his scheme
He shifted his scheme at the end of last year to the other extreme of playing prevent all game
It really just depends on three key factors
Bowles defense has had an infusion of talent. Can he do something with it (by something I mean be top 15).
Grizz is gone and we have a more experienced play caller. Will that generate longer drives to help our defense which isn't super deep.
Health will always be a factor for every team but we have Godwin closer to 100%. Egbuka should shake his hammy injury and yips. We replaced Mike with an unknown. We still have Tez as a zone buster in the slot. Can Bucky stay healthy? Can the line stay healthy?
We were decimated last year with injuries... But that seems to be every year for almost every team.
I see our upside as 11 wins if we stay healthy. I see our downside as 6 wins if the shit hits the fan.
9-8 is a reasonable prediction.
This league is mostly about talent, and coaching gets you over the finish line or way above .500. I haven't seen anything so far to change that trajectory. As BadabingBucs has pointed out that schedule looks like this team can eek out 8 to 9 wins.
So to obtain more out of this roster AND coaching staff you need Mayfield magic and rookies to be dawgs. How likely is that?
Well Licht and Bowles may have lucked out for their fortune turned into opportunity by being able to have a home run draft. I can see a lot of the Bucs 2026 draft class as heavy participants beyond Bain. So the other part of the equation is Mayfield.
Mayfield is hot and cold but he is at his best throwing on the perimeter. Ask him to be precise on slants or skinny posts in the short and intermediate areas and that is asking too much of him.
The problem with Robinson is that he likes to throw out of shotgun and while that does help Mayfield due to his stature it does not disguise runs to well. Mayfield is at his best when he is under center performing play action to short routes on the perimeter like RB, TE, and WR screens or curls. Robinson is old school and when the Bucs have Mayfield line up under center they are looking to run and grind you down. But the downside is that teams can figure out when the Bucs will be throwing (eg shotgun). Mayfield has the arm and mobility along the Bucs WRs uber talented group to overcome that even if teams drop 7-8 into coverage.
Robinson isn't going to keep teams guessing as he is like Bowles as he wants to line up and beat you by executing a play and not through trickery like Coen.
So Mayfield magic is going to really make or break this offense as Robinson is a vanilla as they come on offense like Bowles is on defense when he choose to play prevent.
I think Bowles has most of the pieces (and depth) he’s needed to run his scheme, no shift in my view, back to basics and being multiple. The defense may take some time to gel, but he has no more excuses.It’s been a while since I’ve shared a new Monday Contemplation, mostly because there’s been so much to follow… completing the draft and signing undrafted free agents. While everything seems to have gone well, we won’t truly understand the results for a few years.
With the draft behind us, we have plenty of time to reflect until training camp starts in July. My thoughts now center on Coach Todd Bowles, who gets another offseason to discover his “Aha moment.” He seems to have acquired more players that fit his scheme, at least for the time being.
Bowles’ Scheme Shift
A new year brings another chance to find solutions for the defensive struggles that have plagued the Buccaneers over the last four years. Bowles has consistently claimed he’ll figure things out on defense, whether or not he gets new players. While Jason Licht finds him a few players every year, Bowles tends to stick to the same scheme each year, resulting in similar outcomes.
Will this offseason be different? Will Bowles truly tweak his scheme, or will he merely devise some new blitz packages that work initially but get figured out as the season progresses? If so, we could find ourselves back in the cycle of a struggling four-man pass rush, poor coverage behind blitzes, and looking ahead to next year when hopefully we can add edge rushers to bolster his defense.
I’m not overly optimistic that Bowles will adapt his scheme, as old habits are hard to break. My hope is that the players will elevate their performance, similar to their success in 2020. That year, the front four—Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul—were absolute beasts. Put those four on any defense, and they’ll make any coordinator look like a genius.
This year, we have reason for optimism with the addition of Rueben Bain Jr., alongside a more experienced Yaya Diaby, a slightly past-his-prime Vita Vea, and, hopefully, a healthy Calijah Kancey. With key additions like OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad and DL A’Shawn Robinson, this group has the potential to provide solid run defense and pass rush, regardless of how Bowles chooses to run things.
3-4, Nickel, Dime, or all of Them?
Bowles is known as a 3-4 defensive coordinator, but his defense often plays nickel or variations thereof around 40% of the time. What will that look like this year? For several seasons, I’ve emphasized that offenses should exploit early downs against the Bucs’ defense, as Bowles heavily focuses on stopping the run. Teams that throw on first down have had considerable success—just look at the Rams game last year, where we deployed a 3-4 on every first down and looked completely lost as Matthew Stafford diced our lack of coverage the whole first half.
I’ve long hoped that Bowles would adopt a more flexible approach. Instead of always coming out with three defensive linemen and two outside linebackers on first down, mixing it up could yield better results. You can still run effective run defense schemes from various personnel looks. Last year, it was challenging to see five linemen on the field with only one linebacker, Sir Vocea Dennis, whose strengths lay in getting downhill quickly, but whose coverage skills were lacking.
My philosophy would be to employ a heavy run scheme with players who can quickly transition to coverage when a play turns into a pass. This approach requires personnel and alignment adjustments.
Personnel Usage
With Jason Licht providing Bowles with more tools in the front seven, including a wildcard like fourth-round pick Kionte Scott, the potential for mixing and matching players in different schemes is exciting.
Imagine utilizing Scott in a nickel role as the Will linebacker. He excels at filling run gaps and can also handle coverage responsibilities in the slot. This flexibility could be invaluable when facing offenses that come out in 13 personnel on first down.
There are also rumors that the Bucs might consider employing dime personnel, which makes sense given our roster when healthy. Alex Anzalone could serve as the lone linebacker, with Scott and Tykee Smith in the dime slots, with Roberts and Winfield at safety. Or by moving Parrish to the inside to pair with Scott and keep Smith and Winfield at safeties.
This setup allows for more speed in coverage and gives our new pass rushers the chance to pin their ears back and pursue the quarterback. We could rotate Bain, Diaby, Muhammad, and possibly David Walker at edge, even letting Bain play some under tackle in passing situations.
Final Word
Bowles has the tools to be flexible with his defense. I understand it’s challenging to step out of your comfort zone as a coach, but he must make some changes. He’s been around the NFL long enough for teams to predict his tendencies. This year, we need to see a different version of Bowles.
Robinson - we hope he’s Coen 1.2, however he’s a wildcard at this point. The most recent data is from Atlanta, and we’ve been told that dataset may be skewed because he didn’t have the talent at QB/o-line, receivers - but we don’t know this until we see what he does with a far more complete talent on offense. Don’t want to see a lot of shotgun, etc (read Badabings breakdown).
Licht has committed a lot of resources to reloading the offense, finding 2 really good OC’s, one bad one, and one - well we’re in limbo - and rebuilding the defense specifically for Bowles. This is make or break season, for sure. This season Bowles shouldn’t have any excuses. It’s on him.
The one thing Bowles has shown his entire NFL coaching career is the inability to change and adapt. It will likely be more of the same thing with a different cast of characters than it would be something completely different and reinventive.
@firebowles2026 - that’s not a scheme change. That’s playing scared.
@firebowles2026 - that’s not a scheme change. That’s playing scared.
@firebowles2026 - that’s not a scheme change. That’s playing scared.
Yup.
We've seen it his entire head coaching tenure here.