Welcome to Year 3 of Monday Rants, and we are starting with a bang. As most of you know, I lean hard on Todd Bowles' deficiencies as a defensive coordinator. A lot of that comes from years of coaching and recognizing how flawed his overall scheme can be. But Bowles is an easy target. This week's target is the supposedly revamped offense… the freshly paid Baker Mayfield, the new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and what we've been told is a top-five offensive line. Let's get into it.
Baker Overcooks
Baker Mayfield had a busy offseason making the media circuit, explaining why he deserves to be paid as a top-ten quarterback. And he got paid. Good for him, and genuinely good for the Buccaneers. There's no realistic hope of bringing in a better quarterback than Baker this year or next. The only scenario where that changes is if this season goes truly sideways and our draft position puts us in range to take a quarterback in what is shaping up to be a very quarterback-heavy draft class.
Baker worked hard through the offseason and preseason. He learned Robinson's new offense, which is worth noting is Baker's eighth new offensive system in as many seasons. He came into Cincinnati looking healthy and sharp. And then 1:00 p.m. hit.
Communication and headset issues plagued the first drive, with plays coming in late and the offense frantically snapping the ball just before delay of game penalties. It was a bad look for Baker, for Robinson, and for the offense as a whole. Through the chaos, the unit did manage some nice early runs and screens. But the one play that stays with me is the second offensive snap of the entire 2026 regular season. The play was schemed beautifully. Emeka Egbuka ran a go route against a corner who was sitting and had no help. Egbuka beat him by four or five yards. Clean. Wide open. And Baker underthrew him.
That is a massive opportunity to open the season with a statement play, knock the defense back on its heels, and establish that the Buccaneers can threaten you vertically. Instead it fell incomplete. And here's the hard truth: Baker misses that throw too often. It is simply not his strength. But when a receiver is that open, when a corner is sitting that flat-footed, an NFL starting quarterback has to hit him. Tyler Shough hits that throw.
From there, Baker did what Baker does best… fight, scramble, wrestle out of sacks, deliver short, quick passes that move the chains. That is genuinely his strength and it is what makes him so valuable to this offense. But that style of play carries a tax. See the first-quarter fumble that led directly to a Bengals defensive touchdown. See the second-quarter fumble going into the end zone after escaping pressure in the pocket. See the third-quarter fumble when he held the ball too long and got sacked from behind, losing his third fumble of the game. His career-high in a single game, by the way.
Baker has to be a fighter because he doesn't consistently beat defenses over the top enough. He earns every yard the hard way. But Sunday in Cincinnati, that toughness cost this team the game. Three fumbles. You simply cannot overcome that.
Robinson Shows Potential, But Not Enough for Week 1
Zac Robinson came to Tampa this offseason as our new offensive coordinator following two years running the same system with the Atlanta Falcons. Even with that limited play-calling experience, it was more than we've gotten from the last several coordinators. He had an actual scheme. He knew how to use it. That already puts him ahead of where we've been.
But Robinson can't control his players fumbling the ball away, and not everything was in sync with his new offensive unit Sunday. The communication issues may have stemmed from equipment problems, but every coordinator, especially on the road, knows that is a potential pitfall. The backup plan for those situations needs to be smoother than what we saw.
The early deep shot to Egbuka was beautifully designed. It just didn't connect. And beyond that, deep shots were too few and far between for a team that found itself trailing for the majority of the afternoon. When you're down most of the game, you need to take some calculated shots downfield. Maybe the receivers weren't getting open. Maybe the line wasn't giving Baker enough time. But we need to be able to push the ball further down the field more consistently.
The screen game looked relatively sharp, though it's genuinely difficult to spread a defense when you're spending most of the game working behind the line of scrimmage. A diet of runs, screens, and five-to-ten-yard passes doesn't create the vertical threat that opens up space underneath. You need those deep shots to make the short game work. Without them, the defense simply sits down and takes away what you're giving them.
The one genuine bright spot in the offensive game plan was the early running game. Robinson used motion and the quick passing game effectively in the first quarter to open up running lanes, and it worked. Bucky Irving at one point was averaging 5.6 yards per carry. That is legitimate production. The problem is you cannot sustain a ground game when you've put yourself in a deficit because your quarterback lost three footballs. The game script simply won't allow it.
The Line Didn't Play Like a Top Half Unit
I've had concerns about this offensive line for over a year now, and not simply because of injuries. I think several of these players have individually taken a step back from where they were at their best.
Tristan Wirfs was good last season but was nowhere near the dominant force he's been throughout his career, and he posted the worst PFF run blocking grade on the entire offensive unit in Week 1. After getting worked over by Rueben Bain Jr. and others during training camp and joint practices all summer, Luke Goedeke gave us no reason Sunday to believe he's a top-twenty tackle in this league. And the interior of the offensive line got eaten alive by Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence, who caved the pocket repeatedly and forced Baker into scramble mode over and over again throughout the afternoon.
Here's an admission I'll make openly: when I kept hearing that our defensive line was giving the offensive line fits during training camp, part of me wondered if the defensive line was really that impressive or if the offensive line was simply that average. When you have average going against average in training camp, what are you going to get? Average results from both units. Sunday in Cincinnati confirmed my concern. The offensive line is not a top-five unit right now. Not even close.
Something for the Defensive Cheerleaders to Chew On
The offense lost this game from the opening series. Let's be completely clear about that. But I am not going to hand out much credit to the defense either, with one significant exception.
Josiah Trotter was outstanding. A sack. A pick-six. A phenomenal NFL debut from a second-round rookie linebacker who looked a little lost early and then completely took over. Genuinely special.
Everything else on the defensive side? Joe Burrow was the least pressured quarterback in the entire NFL in Week 1. Let that sink in. The least pressured. In a league with 32 starting quarterbacks. And this was against the Bengals, a team that is not widely regarded as having a great offensive line. They just looked like one compared to ours on Sunday.
That is not a good sign heading into a season where pressure generation was supposed to be the cornerstone of everything Todd Bowles was building. One week is one week. But one week is also a data point. And right now that data point is flashing a very familiar warning light.
Here's to Week 2. We're going to need a much better performance across the board.
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