Help me out here. Why does this 2026 Buccaneers team look so eerily familiar?
An inaccurate Baker Mayfield. A defense with a remarkable talent for resurrecting struggling quarterbacks' careers. A defense that cannot stop a tight end to save its life. An offensive line that isn't playing anywhere near its supposed ability. And coaching that appears completely unable to make meaningful adjustments in the middle of a football game.
Where have I seen all of this before?
Oh right. The 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Specifically the last ten games of the 2025 season, when a team that started 6-2 went 2-7 down the stretch and stumbled into the playoffs having answered virtually none of the questions that needed answering. We were told that collapse was due to injuries, aging players, and underperforming position coaches. Everything and everyone was to blame — except Todd Bowles. His defensive scheme has been a problem for years, but somehow the explanation is always something other than him. All we had to do was fix everything else and the team would magically return to that 6-2 form.
Two games into 2026, we're 0-2 and the problems look identical. Let that sink in for a moment.
Sorry. I started ranting before I officially announced this is my Week 2 rant.
Remember When I Asked This Question?
During training camp, the dominant narrative was that our defensive line and outside linebacker group were giving our offensive line absolute fits in practice. This front seven was going to bring consistent pressure. Win one-on-one pass rush duels. Make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks all season long. This defense was going to be dangerous.
And I asked, repeatedly and publicly: is our defense really that good, or is our offense just that bad?
Two games into the 2026 regular season, I think we have our answer. We are only good when we play against ourselves.
This defensive front has gone backwards in real game situations. Yaya Diaby and Rueben Bain Jr. are not getting a whiff of opposing quarterbacks. Calijah Kancey had a few quality rushes against the Bengals but was a non-factor against the Browns. Vita Vea looks like a man who spent the entire offseason and training camp holdout in a lawn chair. He stands up (plays too high) and plays patty cake with linemen. A'Shawn Robinson had a nice stop on fourth and short against Cleveland. That is about the extent of the good news.
What happened to the unit that was supposedly giving our offense fits all training camp? The unit that at times prevented us from getting a pass off at all during practice periods? The answer is uncomfortable but increasingly undeniable.
The offensive line was never as good as everyone hoped it was. I said it last year and I said it throughout this preseason: even the healthy starters were getting beaten too consistently in one-on-one situations. They had a bad 2025. They had a bad preseason in 2026. And with Tristan Wirfs out for most of training camp, the defensive front was beating up on a group that realistically belongs in the back half of the league in terms of pass protection quality.
I asked the question multiple times this summer. Now we have our answer through two weeks. Neither the offense nor the defense is good right now. Both units have real, fundamental problems that are not going to be solved by motivational speeches.
Baker Has Always Had Issues With His Deep Ball
Offensive coordinators typically script their opening drives or a certain number of early plays to attack the specific defensive looks they anticipate seeing. Zac Robinson has done this in both games this season, and to his credit he has dialed up two potentially explosive plays to open both contests. In both games Robinson called for a deep shot on the second offensive play of the game.
Against the Bengals, he called for a deep go route with Emeka Egbuka running past a cornerback who was sitting in a flat zone. The corner sat. Egbuka got five yards behind the nearest defender. Baker underthrew him and the corner recovered to break it up. Against the Browns, Robinson called for a post pattern that split behind a sitting safety, completely wide open over the middle of the field for potentially huge yardage. Baker overthrew it by several yards.
Two games. Two perfectly designed plays. Two open receivers in positions to make a significant impact. Two missed opportunities.
Who knows how either of these games unfolds if the Bucs connect on one of those throws and jump out to a 7-0 lead? At minimum, it forces defenses to respect the deep ball and back off coverage underneath, which is exactly what opens up the underneath routes and screen game that Robinson wants to use. Two missed throws changed the entire psychological dynamic of both games.
I am not suggesting Robinson has called good games overall, because he hasn't. But those were two genuinely excellent scripted calls that showed real creativity and preparation. Baker simply has to hit those throws. And here is the honest truth: he has never been a reliable deep ball thrower. He connects on one every now and then, but they are too infrequent to be counted on as a consistent weapon. This is one of the fundamental limitations that has always capped Baker Mayfield's ceiling as a franchise quarterback. He doesn't consistently trust his eyes downfield. He holds the ball too long. He misses open deep receivers. And on the occasions when he does pull the trigger quickly, it is often because he has stared down a single receiver, which leads directly to interceptions.
The screen game shows some promise. But you need a legitimate downfield threat to make it work, and right now opposing defenses are sitting in coverage because Baker has given them no reason to respect the vertical passing game. He was not good over the final ten games of 2025. He has not been good through two games of 2026. That is closing in on a season’s worth of games of below-average quarterback play from a man being paid like a top-ten signal caller. Something has to change. Fast.
Bowles Has Never Had Good In-game Adjustments
I have said this for years and Sunday provided another textbook example. Todd Bowles either comes into a game with a solid plan and executes it reasonably well, or it is going to be a devastating afternoon from the get-go. What he has never been able to do consistently is adjust in real time when the opponent makes changes at halftime.
The Cleveland Browns came out in the second half with a completely different offensive approach. Adjustments were made. Concepts were introduced that the Bucs' defense clearly had not prepared for or simply could not counter on the fly. And by the way, they did it how I’ve always said you should attack Bowles’ defense, throw on first down. When we have 5 pass rushers in, attack us with quick passes. We might drop one of those edges, which is fine, just target that area. The result was 17 points on four second-half drives. By the Cleveland Browns. By a team whose starting quarterback may have been playing his final NFL game with the Browns before Sunday's performance. Against Todd Bowles' defense, Watson found new life.
This is not an isolated incident. This is a pattern. There is a long and distinguished list of quarterbacks who should send Todd Bowles a thank-you card for a career-defining performance or a much-needed confidence restoration against his defense. The list grows longer every season.
The most troubling part is that nothing in Sunday's second half suggested the coaching staff had any awareness that the adjustments were happening or any meaningful counter to offer. The defense that came out after halftime looked almost identical to the one that had been on the field all afternoon — same coverages, same deployment, same results. Against an offense that had just spent fifteen minutes redesigning its approach. That is not a personnel problem. That is a coaching problem. And the players know it. They are starting to crack when questioned. Lesser talented teams are winning games. Not Bowles team.
Here's to Week 3. We are going to need a significantly better performance across the board.
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