As a fan, I’ll eventually move past this disappointment and rally behind the team, but as an analyst, I need to express my frustration.
The Bucs have decided to retain Coach Todd Bowles for the 2026 season, a choice rooted in fear of making the bad decision, which could be the worst decision of all. This hesitance could lead to a prolonged downturn for the franchise.
Current Team Confidence
The team’s confidence is at its lowest point in a decade. It’s rare for players to publicly call out a coach at season’s end and then see that coach return. When players feel safe enough to speak out, it often signals that they are anticipating a change.
The collapse this season could set the stage for a major falloff next year, especially if things start to go awry. Pulling out of downturns gets harder and harder. This situation was far worse than the 3- or 4-game skids seen in 2023 and 2024. This demoralized an entire franchise.
Status of the Current Situation
Without significant player additions or coaching changes, the current team is primed for a significant decline that could take years to reverse. Building a winning culture takes time, and while many current players have experienced success, they can quickly become accustomed to losing.
Given the tough schedule for 2026, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this current make-up of the team having a record that ranges from 3-14 to 5-12. If Bowles continues with the same defensive scheme and personnel, opposing offenses will continue to exploit the Bucs’ defensive weaknesses, especially with strong offensive teams on the schedule. If Atlanta hires a coach like Klint Kubiak, that’s two more challenging games, even without Kirk Cousins leading the way.
If OC Josh Grizzard were to return, he’d continue to constrained by Bowles’ run first philosophy. Grizzard has plenty of room for growth, but he won’t see that growth under the leadership of a defensive minded coach like Bowles, who will always look to his offense to first reduce the chances opposing offenses get to attack his defense. When you don’t have a true base defense, and instead rely on exotic defensive pressure packages, reducing the amount of looks the offense gets, helps it work deeper into the game. That why you see many offenses light up Bowles defenses later in games. This leaves Grizzard, or any OC, handcuffed with their play calling. You saw this with Coen as we went deeper into the 2024 season. Watch early games when Coen wasn’t worried about the run to pass ratios. The offense looked different. We threw the ball early, so that we could run late.
Best-Case Scenario
The best players on this team are aging. Lavonte David is going to retire, and Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Vita Vea will be another year older.
Bucs’ Tristan Wirfs and Vita Vea – Photo by buccaneers.com
This leaves us with Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke, and Calijah Kancey as our most promising players—if they can stay healthy.
The next tier includes Bucky Irving, Yaya Diaby, Antoine Winfield Jr., Zion McCollum, Graham Barton, Luke Goedeke, and Cody Mauch, all of whom have uncertainties surrounding them.
Then there’s the younger group—Tykee Smith, Jacob Parrish Johnson, Benjamin Morrison, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, Elijah Roberts… who show potential but are still unproven.
Our roster is a blend of average youth. GM Jason Licht and Bowles have missed on too many early picks since 2020. When a team misses on high draft picks and fails to supplement them with quality free agents, it results in a roster filled with mid-round talent thrust into key roles.
It’s perplexing that I, as an average fan, can see how Joe Tryon-Shoyinka played too light, ran around blocks, and lacked the explosiveness needed for success at this level. Or that Logan Hall struggled with pad level and first-step quickness—these were our top picks in 2021 and 2022. Misses.
While we’ve heard about this team being homegrown, the reality is that since the Arians era, we’ve slowly seen a decline in talent. Yes, most starters are homegrown, but we lack elite young talent, particularly on defense. We have good young men who are team first players, but are mostly average.
Much of this falls on Licht. However, Bowles has had significant input in the defensive players we’ve drafted. These are his guys, and his coaching staff hasn’t developed many talents. Players enter with their collegiate coaching and attributes, like Calijah Kancey, who came well-coached from Pitt.
What Will Change at One Buc Place This Offseason?
Now that we know Bowles will remain as head coach, what changes can we expect? Will he be willing to shake up his coaching staff? The Bucs’ special teams coverage units were among the worst in the league—there’s no justification for keeping that intact. Many of his long-time assistants have been coaching since the ’70s and ’80s; perhaps it’s time for fresh ideas in the defensive room.
While hopes were high with a new edge position coach, sometimes the issue lies with the players. I’ve maintained for four years that without a dominant edge rush, we can’t reach our goals. It’s short-sighted to continue rolling out subpar edge players year after year. Invest in this position or continue to struggle defensively.
Solely drafting an edge player this year won’t suffice; he won’t make a significant impact. We need to spend money on free agency or trade for a real pass rusher. If not, we’ll be lamenting by week five that “we can’t generate pressure with our front four.” Sound familiar… Licht and Bowles?
Offensive Outlook
The hopes for the 2026 season hinge on the offense since I have little faith that Bowles can create a top-15 defense. If he can’t substantially improve the pass defense, it won’t matter how solid our run defense is; teams typically won’t bother running against us if they don’t have to.
This puts pressure on the offense. Bowles’ best record with the Bucs came in 2024, under Liam Coen’s top-five offense. Reviving that level of offensive play is our primary hope, but there aren’t many coaches like Coen out there. And I won’t even delve into the Coen debacle—I’ve long said that championship teams must make tough, unpopular decisions. We didn’t, and here we are.
There are offensive candidates available. Perhaps someone will see Tampa as a chance for a one-year leap to head coach. Let’s hope for that, because without it, we’re in for a long season ahead. At this point, I’d suspect we’re in for a few long seasons.
TLDR,
The set back for years to come is where you will lose anyone who pays any attention to the sport. It’s like the “and it’s not particularly close” when making a point about a team or individuals dominance. It’s goofy and lazy and no amount of words will make it accurate.
Do you have a QB? Do you have an OL? Can you create turnovers? If you can answer yes to these three questions, you can compete tomorrow!
I am going to have to disagree slightly but I do agree that the offense is what carries this team forward.
Bucs have all their draft picks and the offensive core minus Evans is intact. And the Bucs are finally out of cap jail.
Keeping Bowles one more year isn't setting the franchise back. What would be setting the franchise back is if they allow Bowles and Licht to start trading away premium draft picks for short term rentals. That starts to put a strain on the cap and hurts the future potential core when there is a new HC in town.
When Arians walked into the Bucs he was walking into a pretty good core group. Not so much with Koetter as he had to deal with the fallout of Schiano and Lovie causing mayhem with the roster and cap space.
Do you have a QB? Do you have an OL? Can you create turnovers? If you can answer yes to these three questions, you can compete tomo
Yeah the Bucs have Mayfield, they have their starting 5 and they did generate turnovers. Problem as always is the over complication of the scheme on the backend, poor tackling and not enough impact players in the front seven of the defense.
Cap space and draft picks can infuse the front seven with bigger and faster players that can tackle. The backend will need a new approach for better communication.
Keeping Bowles one more year isn't setting the franchise back. What would be setting the franchise back is if they allow Bowles and Licht to start trading away premium draft picks for short term rentals.
I dont have high expectations for next season, but its very true that its not setting the team back long term
The Glazers' thought process has to be that the "division championship" margins are so much closer than they seem. I dont think you need a top 5 offense to cover for Bowles defense (the 202 team) and the proof of that is that the NFCS "division champs" this season have a middle of the pack defense and a bottom 5 offense. It may be different next season, but that is the current division winner standard.
On top of that, in the midst of a coaching/player breakdown (at least on the defense) the Bucs missed the playoffs this season because of losses by 5 points, 3 points, 4 points, 1 point, 3 points, and 3 points. Win anyone of those and they are in the playoffs.
Again, I get the division is weak and may change, but the point is that the Bucs team is not that far off from winning THIS division, which as much as everyone cries about the division, IS THE GOAL. This was a falling apart team that still should have won.
ALL THAT SAID, here is the BIG DISCLAIMER:
It is INCREDIBLY difficult for a HC who loses some players and has a collapse like that to get the team back the very next season. That would take some early, substantial success. Without it the team could crumble early and you could have a 2 or 3 win season. This is why I though it was much more likely the Bucs move on. Not sure how Bowles turns that around. Also not sure how he gets NEW coaches when he's on the hottest hot seat before we even get to the offseason.
Only thing I can say for certain is there will be a lot of crying and trolling on the Red Board lol
TLDR,
The set back for years to come is where you will lose anyone who pays any attention to the sport. It’s like the “and it’s not particularly close” when making a point about a team or individuals dominance. It’s goofy and lazy and no amount of words will make it accurate.
Do you have a QB? Do you have an OL? Can you create turnovers? If you can answer yes to these three questions, you can compete tomorrow!
Didnt you have a source or something saying....
Problem as always is the over complication of the scheme on the backend, poor tackling and not enough impact players in the front seven of the defense.
Cap space and draft picks can infuse the front seven with bigger and faster players that can tackle. The backend will need a new approach for better communication.
Good summary. The things you point out are not insurmountable problems by any means.
"over complication of the scheme on the backend". -- in his last press conference and his radio interview the next day Bowles sounds like he get that they may need a simpler scheme. We will see. Some of their worst busts came in Tampa 2 (lol) so doesnt get much simpler. Maybe just need players like Smith to do their actual job.
"poor tackling" -- maybe the easiest, player-drive thing to fix. As much mindset as anything.
"not enough impact players in the front seven of the defense" - Bowles even mentioned this. The Red Board is awash "with trade for Crosby." EVERYONE KNOWS THIS. Most assign the issue to Bowles ("he doesnt think he needs pass rushers") but maybe that is wrong and maybe one reason Bowles is still here is because the band-aid of Reddick was such a bust. If that move was on the FO and not Bowles its easy enough to see his return being, at least in part, the FO agreeing they let Bowles down. Anyway, easy to identify, not so easy to fix. At least the mission is clear.
* * *
The first step to Bowles recovering the leadership of the team is the coaching. Coaching begins by firing the entire ST staff. I am sure some of his guys must be retiring, guys like Ross and Rapone. Does he elevate Foote to DC? Could lose him otherwise.
if they retain Bowles, which it looks like they are, (Scott Reynolds and company got me all giddy up that they still think Harbaugh is in play) then they need a premier OC
we run it back with Grizz or another inexperienced guy that doesn't turn into a phenom like Coen, and im afraid Baker will be done here. He has a repeat of 2025 and honestly, not looking good.
Sure the Bucs make poor decisions and may extend him prematurely this year like they tend to do with "gray area" situations like Bowles and McCollum, but that doesnt mean we will want Baker around after next year if he is closer to 2025 Baker than the 2024 MVP caliber we saw he is capable of under Coen
EDIT: Like Harbaugh would make too much sense, take Monken with him which would be an upgrade over Grizz and then force to hire a DC and this team will be better coached
I think the roster will improve. I think the coaching on offense will improve. The defense will continue to underperform. We can win between 7 and 10 wins. Bowles puts a ceiling on our potential but the division still sucks.
Bowles retires in 2 years
If you can answer yes to these three questions, you can compete tomorrow!
So, you’re saying we won’t compete.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Being dramatic. Get an edge rusher in here, upgrade all the bad players to average.
I think the roster will improve. I think the coaching on offense will improve. The defense will continue to underperform. We can win between 7 and 10 wins. Bowles puts a ceiling on our potential but the division still sucks.
Bowles retires in 2 years
that might be exactly it.
A true Bowles lover once said about his defense "scoring is the only stat that matters." As bad as it was, the 2025 defense was 2 points per game worse than the 2024 defense and 5 or 6 points per game worse than the 2023 defense.
The 2025 offense was a full TD (I think) worse than the 2024 offense, considered the best in recent times.
The margins in the NFL are small. Can the Bucs get 3-5 more points a game from the offense in 2026? Sure. Just something like the O-line being healthy and the answer should be "yes." Can the defense shave 3 points PPG? Sure. They should have more talent and I would think some adjustments to the scheme.
The real issue will be how do they start
Grizz fired.
"not enough impact players in the front seven of the defense" - Bowles even mentioned this. The Red Board is awash "with trade for Crosby." EVERYONE KNOWS THIS
McFarland
"Good for Todd Bowles. He deserves to be back. Jason Has to get him some edge rushers and another LB. The young secondary is promising but they need pressure on the passer Trade for Maxx Crosby Draft one In 1st round Great year for edge guys"
"not enough impact players in the front seven of the defense" - Bowles even mentioned this. The Red Board is awash "with trade for Crosby." EVERYONE KNOWS THIS
McFarland
"Good for Todd Bowles. He deserves to be back. Jason Has to get him some edge rushers and another LB. The young secondary is promising but they need pressure on the passer Trade for Maxx Crosby Draft one In 1st round Great year for edge guys"
see the Crosby thing concerns me because are we 1 player away on defense? If we only have to give up a 1st for him, then ok, but if it's multiple picks, thats probably where im not interested.
Hall (free agent), Vea (probably only a couple years left, free agent in 27), Kancy (bust), Reddick (free agent), David (free agent/washed), Dennis (not a starter), Diaby (ehh)
so our front 7 for 2026 includes Vea, Kancy, and Diaby under contract and ok with starting. Then in 2027, you are looking at potentially just Diaby
Our secondary actually not in bad shape, particularly if the players develop - AWJ, Tykee, Morrison, Parrish, McCollum.
