The Buc's had less than a 0.01% chance of winning that game. The only time that changed, was at the 1:58 mark, when it jumped up to 0.02%
There was no chance.
Where did you get those figures?
ESPN analytics.
They do them for every game. It's updated live and then they keep the tracker up from the gamecast portion of the box score.
The Buc's had less than a 0.01% chance of winning that game. The only time that changed, was at the 1:58 mark, when it jumped up to 0.02%
There was no chance.
Where did you get those figures?
ESPN analytics.
They do them for every game. It's updated live and then they keep the tracker up from the gamecast portion of the box score.
you're saying those are the analytics for the 2024 Ravens game? Not 1% but .01%
do you have a link?
The Buc's had less than a 0.01% chance of winning that game. The only time that changed, was at the 1:58 mark, when it jumped up to 0.02%
There was no chance.
Where did you get those figures?
ESPN analytics.
They do them for every game. It's updated live and then they keep the tracker up from the gamecast portion of the box score.
you're saying those are the analytics for the 2024 Ravens game? Not 1% but .01%
do you have a link?
Don't have it up in front of me ATM.
Just Google:
”In Game Win Probability Bucs vs Ravens 2024”
ESPN will be the top link.
you're saying those are the analytics for the 2024 Ravens game? Not 1% but .01%
do you have a link?
Just to give this some context in the Bears game this week there are three touchdown drives in about 1:40 and the last one leaves about :17 on the clock
the Bengals are down two scores and they score two TDs with each drive roughly 40 seconds. The Bears then score a TD in about 35 seconds from70 yards giving the ball back to the Bengals with 17 seconds
just this weekend
the idea that there was a .01% chance (1/100th of 1%) of the Bucs scoring a TD and a FG with 1:48 is obviously off right? This season onside kicks are conveyed 4.7% so at a minimum it's well within common sense to try to drive for the first score with1:48
tjis is why you never see teams just quitting even down two scores late, like the two HC quotes I posted one of which is McVay, MR ANALYTICS
The Buc's had less than a 0.01% chance of winning that game. The only time that changed, was at the 1:58 mark, when it jumped up to 0.02%
There was no chance.
Where did you get those figures?
ESPN analytics.
They do them for every game. It's updated live and then they keep the tracker up from the gamecast portion of the box score.
you're saying those are the analytics for the 2024 Ravens game? Not 1% but .01%
do you have a link?
Don't have it up in front of me ATM.
Just Google:
”In Game Win Probability Bucs vs Ravens 2024”
ESPN will be the top link.
I see it thanks
the Bears had a 99.7% win probability up two scores in the 4th
that means the Bengals should've packed it in. They didn't. They scored two TDs and flipped it completely such that they had the 99% win probability
the Bears should've quit. There was less than a minute. They didn't. They scored a TD from 70 yard and with 17 seconds to spare
win probability is not outcome. It's a model
the idea that there was a .01% chance (1/100th of 1%) of the Bucs scoring a TD and a FG with 1:48 is obviously off right? This season onside kicks are conveyed 4.7% so at a minimum it's well within common sense to try to drive for the first score with1:48
What's the percentage on recovering MULTIPLE onside kicks in a single game?
Because that's part of the context.
Again, I'm tired of debating it.
As I said, 2 camps that aren't going to budge and a key part of our offense that most likely won't ever be the same player.
But, yay, we made a meaningless game that was a blowout less of a blowout.
What's the percentage on recovering MULTIPLE onside kicks in a single game?
There aren't t though.
no need to debate it further I agree but now I see the pint you're making which is probabilities. The probability of a Buc win at 1:48 and a Commander win at 7:00ish are about the same but the games are completely different
if you are Bowles and you just scored two tds and hit the Ravens to punt you barely changed the probabilities because it's still two scores and a dwindling clock BUT the probabilities were just as bad before the two TDs so you keep playing. The only time Bowles or McVsy or OConnell is stopping is when the drive where Godwin gets hurt ends with no score or with a score and a failed onside
thats the real world, not algorithm. Herm Edward's "it's why we play the game"
The Bengals and the Bears both ignored the probabilities. That's how football is played every game
The Cowboys are down 3 scores in the 4th. Do they pull Lamb? Maybe
(btw Prescott throwing lasers and they are still losing)