These 3 bullet points, in order of priority, are the way the last two 5-win seasons turn into 9-win seasons.
* SERIOUS REDUCTION IN NEGATIVE PLAYS AT THE QB POSITION<strong/>
The passing concepts of this offense overlap considerably with the prior offense.
Arians is going to have to get Jamies to (a) improve his pre-snap coverage recognition skills and (b) be patient with, and disciplined within, the QBing process. Go through progressions, KNOW when a throw isn’t there, be willing to quickly accept the Under Route.
Dovetailing with this is that the retention of DSmith means that we’re going to have to consistently devote assets to helping him on the edge (actively chipping with RBs and TEs or putting OJ over there and having him pass Block). His level of Pressures given up the last 4 years is borderline insurmountable and negatively impacts the QB position. That has to be addressed schematically.
You cannot_win with our turnover rate and the propensity for badly-timed TOs (especially when the call and execution of it has led to a play win pending the read and throw). Everything else is details until this changes.
* SERIOUS REDUCTION IN COVERAGE LOSSES AND BREAKDOWNS IN THE BACK 7.
Moving away from a Match Quarters coverage base to a 2 Man Under and Cover 2 Zone base should help the miscommunication issues and assignment busts. These are straight-Forward coverages that should play to the strength (and against the weakness...which appears to be mental processing) of our back 7 players.
However, this team presently has one of the least talented secondaries in the NFL...
* FIX THE RG POSITION, STRENGTHEN THE BACK 7 COVERAGE TALENT, BULWARK THE BACKFIELD DISRUPTION
Do you want to score more points in the RZ? Actually address, with a high-end asset, that one iOL position that has been utterly undermining our ability to run the football (which is particularly important in RZ Tight) these last 3 years.
As mentioned directly above, our back 7 coverage needs an infusion of talent. We almost surely can’t address all of it, but we need to try to come away with at least one (hopefully 2) of either an ILB, CB or S who can cover. This isn’t just for this year, but for the future as well (Stewart has gone from a failed NCB pick to a project S, Evans is injured and inconsistent, fair chance VH3 isn’t here next year).
Finally, we need backfield disrupters...and lots of them. This defense ABSOLUTELY requires dominant edge rush and at least 1 DL who can dominate their gap and move the QB off the spot consistently.
Further, we are very long-in-the-tooth on the DL and have questions (with plenty of promise) in Nassib and Barrett. We need an infusion of rush talent for this year and the future.
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Outside of the normal concerns (rash of injuries, the kicking game completely failing yet again), if we get those things done, we should be in the mix for a Wildcard in December.
