Everyone's talking a lot about how much better this offense and team would be with Arians calling plays. It makes sense.
But is it true? We're all assuming it is.
So let's look at Arians offenses historically. I'm primarily going to use rankings so we can compare across seasons where Arians is compared to his peers.
1) 2015 was Arians best year ever, by far, as an OC. Across the board he dominated both the NFL and previous offenses (in rankings) going back to 2001.
He was 2nd in points in 2015. But this Bucs team is tied for his second best points with 2016.
In fact, his 2016 Cardinals team is almost IDENTICAL in rankings to this Bucs team (2016/2019):
6th/6th in points. 9th/7th in yards. 26th/32nd giveaways. 21st/20th in rushing attempts. 21st/18th in rush yards. 3rd/10th rush TDs. 12th/22nd yards/attempt. 24th/21st fumbles. 3rd/3rd attempts. 9th/4th yards. 11th/8th pass TDs. 26th/32nd INTs. 23rd/16th NY/A.
Even down to offensive DVOA: 21st/24th. Passing DVOA: 27th/23rd. Rush DVOA: 14th/19th.
So the 2016 Cardinals had a slightly worse rushing attack and slightly better passing. But I was shocked by how similar, at least statistically, the 2016 and 2019 Arians offenses were.
2) Arians is significantly outperforming his career average ranking (in parentheses) in points (16.3), total yards (15.8), rush TDs (17.5), pass yards (13.8). He's slightly above average in pass TDs (13.0).
He's at his average for rush attempts (17.3), rush yards (19.8), rush yards/attempt (20.1), passing NY/A (15.4).
He's underperforming his average in giveaways (18.1), INTs (19.1), fumbles (14.9),
3) How about just looking at his Cardinals + Bucs terms because that's when he had full team control (and its more recent).
Without going through all the stats again, the Bucs O is outperforming Arians' recent average in total yards, points, pass attempts, pass yards.
It's average in rush attempts, rush yards, rush yards/attempt, and pass NY/A (pass yards/attempt essentially).
It's below average in giveaways, INTs, and fumbles. But Arians rankings aren't great here: 21.3 in giveaways, 23.2 in INTs, 15.2 in fumbles. So he's below average here, but not drastically so.
4) Looking at DVOA (I only did this for his Bucs + Cardinals terms):
Arians teams are (on average) ranked 20th in Offensive DVOA, 19th in Passing DVOA, and 23rd in Rushing DVOA. This season the Bucs are 24th, 23rd, and 19th respectively.
That is, the 2019 Arians offense is slightly below average in offensive and passing DVOA, and slightly above average in rushing DVOA.
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Conclusion/tl;dr
We can't know with certainty what Arian's play calling does to this offense. But in every category except turnovers, this is an average/above average Arians offense. In fact, in the stats that matter most this offense is above average.
And while the turnovers the Bucs are terrible, Arians ofenses have historically been high in turnovers. The teams he's head coaches have averaged a 23rd ranking in giveaways (his offenses in general are below average in giveaways).
One major caveat is this is a simple stat analysis. We're not comparing rosters or schemes. But by looking at rankings we can smooth that out because we can see where Arians is in relation to his peers. And I think there are enough data points.
So, big picture, is Leftwich the problem? Or is the problem Arians is who he is?
