Jameis Winston: Is It a Mistake to Overlook His Mistakes? - RotoViz http://t.co/VE3y6u5jbR With Jameis Winston announcing that he will be entering the NFL draft, I wanted to take a look back on his polarizing career at Florida State. I’m strictly looking at on-field performance when I use the word polarizing; many will delve into his off field transgressions thoroughly (you can read more on Winston as a prospect by Matthew Freedman here). Polarizing is the apt word here, because Winston had two seasons that were completely night and day from each other.In 2013, at just age 19, he won the Heisman Trophy, completing 67 percent of his passes for over 4,000 yards and a ridiculous 40 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. This past season, he dropped across the board in nearly every efficiency area, but the one part of the puzzle we’re going to focus on here in how his touchdown to interception rate (25/18) plummeted this past season. More importantly, how much of an issue is such a sharp change in TD/INT ratio when looking at next level production?I went over to the fantastic Sports Reference for College Football and took every passing season from 2000 onward with a minimum of 300 passing attempts and pulled out the biggest fall offs in TD/INT ratio. To start off, I had 999 individual seasons in the filter, so we aren’t skimping on sample size here. From there, there were just 28 individual seasons from that group that had a quarterback post a -2.00 or greater change in his TD/INT rate in a follow up season with at least 300 passes. Here’s the list of those signal callers with their next season touchdown to turnover rate.Show entriesPlayer Year School Att TD Int TD/INT N+1 TD N+1 INT N+1 TD/INT ChangeKellen Moore 2009 Boise State 431 39 3 13.0 35 6 5.83 -7.17Omar Jacobs 2004 Bowling Green State 462 41 4 10.3 26 7 3.71 -6.54A.J. McCarron 2012 Alabama 314 30 3 10.0 26 7 3.71 -6.29Bryce Petty 2013 Baylor 379 32 3 10.7 29 7 4.14 -5.86Stephen McGee 2006 Texas A&M 313 12 2 6.00 12 8 1.50 -4.50Diondre Borel 2009 Utah State 366 17 4 4.25 8 13 0.62 -3.63Cullen Harper 2007 Clemson 433 27 6 4.50 13 14 0.93 -3.57Matt Barkley 2011 Southern California 446 39 7 5.57 36 15 2.40 -3.17Colt McCoy 2006 Texas 318 29 7 4.14 22 18 1.22 -2.92Tyler Tettleton 2012 Ohio 367 18 4 4.50 16 10 1.60 -2.90Jared Lorenzen 2002 Kentucky 327 24 5 4.80 16 8 2.00 -2.80James Vandenberg 2011 Iowa 404 25 7 3.57 7 8 0.88 -2.70Jameis Winston 2013 Florida State 384 40 10 4.00 25 18 1.39 -2.61Colt Brennan 2006 Hawaii 559 58 12 4.83 38 17 2.24 -2.60Ken Dorsey 2000 Miami (FL) 322 25 5 5.00 23 9 2.56 -2.44Levi Brown 2008 Troy 326 15 3 5.00 23 9 2.56 -2.44Byron Leftwich 2001 Marshall 470 38 7 5.43 30 10 3.00 -2.43Tyler Wilson 2011 Arkansas 438 24 6 4.00 21 13 1.62 -2.38Trevor Vittatoe 2008 Texas-El Paso 418 33 9 3.67 17 13 1.31 -2.36Kevin Kolb 2003 Houston 360 25 6 4.17 11 6 1.83 -2.33Chase Holbrook 2006 New Mexico State 567 34 9 3.78 26 18 1.44 -2.33Todd Reesing 2007 Kansas 446 33 7 4.71 32 13 2.46 -2.25Matt Schaub 2002 Virginia 418 28 7 4.00 18 10 1.80 -2.20George Godsey 2000 Georgia Tech 349 23 6 3.83 18 11 1.64 -2.20Eli Manning 2001 Mississippi 408 31 9 3.44 21 15 1.40 -2.04Cody Fajardo 2013 Nevada 336 11 3 3.67 18 11 1.64 -2.03Colt McCoy 2008 Texas 433 34 8 4.25 27 12 2.25 -2.00Matt Leinart 2004 Southern California 412 33 6 5.50 28 8 3.50 -2.00Showing 1 to 28 of 28 entriesPreviousNextWinston comes in with the 13th worst change in turnover rate, and in terms of raw interceptions he’s tied for the most in a follow-up campaign (you’ll also notice 2015 draft hopefuls Bryce Petty and Cody Fajardo on this list). As far as the company he’s keeping here, there’s little to be excited about. If you’re asking what could’ve been had Winston returned to Florida State for 2015, improved on this aspect then entered the draft in 2016, you’ll notice two different stints from Colt McCoy on this list as he went up and down throughout college, and the best pros from this group are Eli Manning, Byron Leftwich and Matt Schaub, all players who carried their turnover tendencies to the NFL.Since many of the names on the first set of filtering were nowhere near Winston’s level as a prospect, let’s get a list of all the quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft since 1999 that had career TD/INT rates on par or worse than the 2.32 mark Winston had.Show entriesSearch:Player College Year Drafted TD INT TD/INT Top12YrsCarson Palmer Southern California 2003 1 72 49 1.47 3Matthew Stafford Georgia 2009 1 51 33 1.55 3Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001 1 21 11 1.91 6Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 1 74 35 2.11 0Eli Manning Mississippi 2004 1 81 35 2.31 5Matt Ryan Boston College 2008 3 56 37 1.51 4Vince Young Texas 2006 3 44 28 1.57 1Jake Locker Washington 2011 8 53 35 1.51 0Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M 2012 8 42 21 2.00 1Blaine Gabbert Missouri 2011 10 40 18 2.22 0Jay Cutler Vanderbilt 2006 11 59 36 1.64 2Daunte Culpepper Central Florida 1999 11 72 32 2.25 4Christian Ponder Florida State 2011 12 49 30 1.63 0Cade McNown UCLA 1999 12 68 41 1.66 0E.J. Manuel Florida State 2013 16 47 28 1.68 0Josh Freeman Kansas State 2009 17 44 34 1.29 1Kyle Boller California 2003 19 64 48 1.33 0Rex Grossman Florida 2003 22 77 36 2.14 0J.P. Losman Tulane 2004 22 60 27 2.22 0Jason Campbell Auburn 2005 25 45 24 1.88 0Patrick Ramsey Tulane 2002 32 72 51 1.41 0Drew Brees Purdue 2001 32 90 45 2.00 11John Beck BYU 2007 40 79 34 2.32 0Drew Stanton Michigan State 2007 43 42 28 1.50 0Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame 2010 48 60 27 2.22 0Shaun King Tulane 1999 50 72 34 2.12 1Quincy Carter Georgia 2001 53 35 25 1.40 0Brock Osweiler Arizona State 2012 57 33 15 2.20 0Marques Tuiasosopo Washington 2001 59 31 28 1.11 0Jimmy Garoppolo Eastern Illinois 2014 62 118 51 2.31 0Charlie Frye Akron 2005 67 64 32 2.00 0Mike Glennon North Carolina State 2013 73 63 31 2.03 0Chris Redman Louisville 2000 75 84 51 1.65 0Brock Huard Washington 1999 77 51 34 1.50 0Charlie Whitehurst Clemson 2006 81 49 46 1.07 0Brodie Croyle Alabama 2006 85 41 22 1.86 0Nick Foles Arizona 2012 88 67 33 2.03 1Matt Schaub Virginia 2004 90 56 26 2.15 2Trent Edwards Stanford 2007 92 36 33 1.09 0Chris Simms Texas 2003 97 58 31 1.87 0Showing 1 to 40 of 40 entriesPreviousNextNow we have a better list to sort through and although the overall viewpoint isn’t entirely grand overall, there are at least serviceable (and volatile) quarterbacks in this group. The best players on the list are Drew Brees, who accounts for nearly 25 percent of the quality fantasy seasons in this cohort, and we can include Matt Ryan based on fantasy production, but the other quarterbacks that you’d qualify as “working out” all had or still have turnover issues in the NFL.Would the team that selects Winston this spring be disappointed if his ceiling is more near that of Carson Palmer, Eli, Matt Stafford or Jay Cutler? I really don’t think so, despite public opinion on those players. But in fantasy football, that group has accounted for just 13 top 12 scoring seasons over a combined 37 season window.There are many more slices to the pie in terms of evaluating quarterbacks and we’ll have plenty more on Winston himself going forward, but there’s a pretty clear indication that turnovers are an issue for him and that he’s likely to struggle in that area at the next level. Is that damning to his overall outlook? I don’t think so. But it’s enough shade to make me think twice about investing early second round capital in dynasty.
