If you’ve followed me on social media or visited my website, www.BuccaneerBlitz.com, you’ve likely seen me reference this strategy frequently. I’ve echoed this theme about the Bucs’ offense often, and it has proven effective when executed properly. This approach is rooted in the dynamics of today’s NFL, our players’ strengths, and the challenges posed by Todd Bowles’ defense’s performances.
Understanding the Strategy
The idea of throwing the ball early to enable a strong running game later has multiple interpretations:
– Softening up Defenses: Many believe it’s about disrupting run-heavy defenses that dominate early downs.
– Establishing a Lead: Others see it as a means to secure an early lead, allowing for clock management and a focus on the run game later.
I appreciate both angles.
The Modern NFL vs. The Past
Today’s NFL is all about creating space. By forcing defenses to stretch horizontally and vertically, effective passing games can open up running lanes.
In contrast, past decades saw offenses relying heavily on a strong running game to set up their passing attacks. Teams like the Washington Redskins relied on (The Hogs) powerful offensive lines, while the 49ers revolutionized the game with their West Coast Offense, using quick passes as extensions of their run game.
Bill Walsh’s influence still resonates today, as many offenses incorporate elements of his innovative strategies.
Bucs’ Offensive Personnel
This strategy is particularly well-suited for our Bucs. Our offensive line isn’t built to be road graders; instead, they excel at versatility. While Tristan Wirfs is a stand out, the rest of the line can’t dominate at the point of attack consistently (just look at last year’s goal-line stand by the Saints).
When Dave Canales took over as offensive coordinator three years ago, he emphasized a run-heavy approach, which yielded mediocre results—23rd in total offense and 20th in scoring. This wasn’t sustainable, especially with a struggling defense.
A Shift in Strategy
With Liam Coen stepping in as offensive coordinator, we saw a refreshing shift. Coen, who had experience under Sean McVay, brought a dynamic play-calling style. I remember his debut against the Commanders, where he kept throwing the ball. Every play seemed to be a pass. Play-action, screens, first down, second down, third down. And once he did start calling some run plays, there were huge running lanes. This approach led to a 37-point explosion. Even better, by the end of that game, the Bucs had balanced their plays—30 runs and 30 passes—a masterclass in offensive execution. There were many games like this throughout the season. Probably could have seen it continued through the playoffs if Bowles would have stayed at of the offensive meetings.
Unfortunately, after Coen’s departure to Jacksonville, we saw a return to more conservative play-calling under Josh Grizzard. While he’s faced criticism, he did show promise, especially in high-scoring games against the Seahawks and 49ers. But when Bowles insisted on a run-heavy strategy against Carolina, it signaled trouble.
The Bowles Effect
Bowles’ approach often emphasizes a focus on running. Running against heavy fronts and maintaining a specific run count, all of which can be an old-school mindset. And one that doesn’t align with the strengths of our current roster and can lead to more losses.
Final Thoughts
To succeed, we must set our players up for success. Defenses should be kept guessing on first downs, rather than being able to anticipate plays based on down and distance. Let Baker Mayfield make plays when the defense isn’t expecting the pass, and create opportunities for our linemen to thrive with varied play calls.
Relying on duo, gap blocking in a majority of runs isn’t sufficient for this lineup. Let’s draw inspiration from Coen’s successful tactics and not reinvent the wheel. Don’t be afraid to throw the ball early and often. If done right, the running game will thrive.
Great writeup. Thanks for positing
For my part, using Coen as the easiest example, the key to a successful NFL offense is having as many plays as possible where the down and distance could be run or pass and then being able to successfully do either out of any formation (ie pass form a run formation, run from a pass formation)
And yes, some of that is certainly passing on first down but I might describe that as keeping the defense off balance and not loaded with run defenders.
In 2024 there were multiple times Coen had the opposing defense flat out confused one part of that was d/d another part formation.
I agree with the overall take, as it's something I've been saying for years. Throwing the ball to get the lead and then take the air out of the ball. That's modern NFL offense.
When Dave Canales took over as offensive coordinator three years ago, he emphasized a run-heavy approach, which yielded mediocre results—23rd in total offense and 20th in scoring. This wasn’t sustainable, especially with a struggling defense.
What evidence do you have to back this up? Canales threw the ball more than he ran it:
2023 Tampa Offense: 23rd in Rushing attempts with 439 & 19th in Passing attempts with 568
I don't think there was much of a strategy shift with Coen in this regard, he was just better at it.
2024 Tampa Offense: 10th in Rushing attempts with 483 & 10th in Passing attempts with 571
Canales' pass:run ratio was actually higher than Coen's. So I'm curious what you're basing your statement on.
I agree with the overall take, as it's something I've been saying for years. Throwing the ball to get the lead and then take the air out of the ball. That's modern NFL offense.
When Dave Canales took over as offensive coordinator three years ago, he emphasized a run-heavy approach, which yielded mediocre results—23rd in total offense and 20th in scoring. This wasn’t sustainable, especially with a struggling defense.
What evidence do you have to back this up? Canales threw the ball more than he ran it:
Biggs, even for you that is really poor reading. Look at the bold and then see this:
2023 -- YPC #32 (dead last) in the league at 3.6 YPA
2024 -- YPC #3 in the league (record breaking for the Bucs, #1 or #2 w/w run QB) .. . 5.2 YPA
The 2024 Bucs actually broke team record for rushing first downs and yard and to the point I made above about DOWN AND DISTANCE had record setting 3rd down "medium" (4-6) yards conversions
Canales and Coen were both striving for the same thing: BALANCE
Coen was an actual OC as a play caller and designer. Canales was copying whet he learned from Pete carroll, all the way down to starting the season by moving Godwin outside and basically killing him as a WR (he changed that eventually)
This is Canales with the Panthers (oddly after a Bucs game where they didnt run the ball as much BECAUSE OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES
""Good things happen when you run the ball; you run the ball when good things happen," Canales said. "It works both ways, and it's a part of who we are."
"Just take what they give you, and I know I want to run the ball in some way, shape, or form on a weekly basis," he said. "And when we get good matchups, and we feel like we can take advantage of things in the pass game, our guys have continued to grow in that world so that we can do that, and points are points.
"Wanting to get the ball into Rico and Chuba's hands is a priority of mine. Sometimes that happens in the pass game with screens, getting the ball on the perimeter. It could be a checkdown in a pass concept that we feel good about flooding the zone, different things like that. The easiest way is to turn around and hand it to them, certainly, I love, love having that be a part of our game. . . .
"I know I want to have that physical nature; let the linemen get their hands on people and feel those combos and just play a little football. And that's always a part of the early part of our plans is to make sure that those guys get touches."
The exciting thing about all of this is Robinson should 100% be more like Coen and less like Canales.
Easy to see the difference (especially for Mayfield) if you just compare the use of Godwin.
Canales was just copying Carroll so he put Godwin outside (the Seattle system). Through 6 games Godwin had about 25 receptions for 300ish yards and 0 TDs
Coen featured Godwin because his offense was quick passing offense, often from run disguise. Through 6 games Godwin had probably 45 receptions for more like 500 yds and 5 TDs
NIGHT and DAY
@biggs3535 - your making my point. Overall rushing and passing attempts don’t tell the full story. The fact that Coen threw the ball over 70% in the first half of the commanders game, but ended up balancing run/passing attempts 50/50 by the end of the game was beautiful. As opposed to numerous games where Canales came out in run mode, and had to throw the ball late to try to come back. The story of the number of run/passing attempts are different between the two coaches.
your making my point. Overall rushing and passing attempts don’t tell the full story. The fact that Coen threw the ball over 70% in the first half of the commanders game, but ended up balancing run/passing attempts 50/50 by the end of the game was beautiful. As opposed to numerous games where Canales came out in run mode, and had to throw the ball late to try to come back. The story of the number of run/passing attempts are different between the two coaches.
I don't think I am. I am refuting your point. Here is more evidence that refutes your point about Canales/Coen, with the first half numbers for the entire 2023 & 2024 seasons:
2023 First Half of Games: 214 rushing attempts & 291 passing attempts, or 12.6 rushes/game/half & 17.1 passes/game/half
2024 First Half of Games: 217 rushing attempts & 319 passing attempts, or 12.7 rushes/game/half & 18.7 passes/game/half
Those are pretty damn similar. While the results were different, because Coen is a better schemer and playcaller, the philosophy wasn't that much different.
For those wondering, here is 2025 with Grizzard:
2025 First Half of Games: 241 rushing attempts & 269 passing attempts
He still threw it more than ran it, but that ratio is much smaller that both Canales & Coen.
For those wondering, here is 2025 with Grizzard:
So, since you brought up 2025 Biggs. . . here are the metrics you (dont) probably want to see, as compared to your aggregate stats*:
In 2025 the Jaguars (Coen) are +1.1% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) and the Panthers (Canales) are -6.6%. So on neutral downs (ie could go either pass or run), the 2025 Panthers were one of the most likely teams to run in the league (passed 6.6% less than expected by circumstances). The Jaguars were about average and a little more likely to pass.
Your initial post is using aggregate numbers* is missing the point that Canales who would clearly chooses to run over pass when he can (he even says so and that is the Carroll way) just had a pretty shitty running game with your favorite RB actually at RB1 and his run scheme (and entire offense) was nowhere near as creative as Coen's run scheme with Irving and White.
(*ehinote is correct about your misuses of aggregate stats, a common thing with you)
For those wondering, here is 2025 with Grizzard:
2025 First Half of Games: 241 rushing attempts & 269 passing attempts
He still threw it more than ran it, but that ratio is much smaller that both Canales & Coen.
Grizzard was wanting to add a deep passing element that struggled to materialize, in part, because the Bucs could not run effectively. The 2025 Bucs were -2.6% PROE
FWIW, another easy way to see the difference in the offenses between Coen and Canales is that under Coen Yards After Catch went up as Completed Air Yards went down.
That should be easy to visualize if you just think of Godwin under Coen before his injury because he is probably the top YAC receiver in the NFL. This is because Coen is using the SHORT passing game as an extension of the run game where as Canales starts Godwin outside because the Carroll Way is run run and use play action for explosives (deeper passes).
Or, if that is not clear enough consider that Mayfield is almost 72% completions under Coen versus 64% under Canales. Coen's offense is giving Mayfield easier reads and easier throws - more separation because the deception, particularly the freezing of LBs. Not all the time because the game dictates a lot of the play calling BUT that is the crtical differnce in the INTENDED offenses.
Another way, Coen is the introduction of college offense to the NFL. Canales is going back in time to Carroll.
@bucsbits - exactly. If someone doesn’t get this, it’s because they don’t want to. It’s in the stats and can be seen while watching both offenses. Most of this year’s offensive success will depend on whether Robinson is more of a Coen than a Canales/Grizzard. Pounding our heads against the wall with runs into tight boxes won’t get the job done. And continuing to keep their foot on the gas, even with a lead, will be huge. Coen had numerous games with multi score leads. We didn’t last year. Bowles’ defense isn’t good enough to hold leads. Gotta keep putting point on the board.
For those wondering, here is 2025 with Grizzard:
2025 First Half of Games: 241 rushing attempts & 269 passing attempts
He still threw it more than ran it, but that ratio is much smaller that both Canales & Coen.
I think that was more out of necessity because of the OL injuries so Grizzard would have called more pass plays if Mayfield was healthier and the OL was not banged up and required the TEs to stay in line to block.
Overall Coen if he calls pass heavy or run heavy games he is still getting results with this scheme so run/pass ratio changes week to week based on opponents and what players you have to work with that are healthy.
For those wondering, here is 2025 with Grizzard:
2025 First Half of Games: 241 rushing attempts & 269 passing attempts
He still threw it more than ran it, but that ratio is much smaller that both Canales & Coen.
Grizzard was wanting to add a deep passing element that struggled to materialize, in part, because the Bucs could not run effectively. The 2025 Bucs were -2.6% PROE
That is true that you need a run game to be able to run play action 5 and 7 step drops for passes downfield. But the Bucs OL injuries prevented them from estabilishing run game and doing any long game passes downfield. Mayfield was injured as well and was tossing wounded ducks to the perimeter toward the end of the season.
Robinson called the least amount of play action passes in all of the NFL last year so this is where we will find out quickly if Robinson is going to be more stubborn than Grizzard when it comes to down and distance and situational football.
