Licht is probably the worst GM in the NFL right now. The fact that he was retained over Koetter and is conducting the GM search (a) is the final evidence the Glazers have no clue how to run or evaluate a successful NFL organization and (b) the Bucs are going to suck for a lot more years.
This is a depressing update to a post I did last year (when Licht should’ve been fired): https://www.pewterreport.com/forums/topic/seasons-end-send-the-turk-for-licht/
It’s hard to find a GM with the record of ineptitude that Licht has. It might be Mike Maccagnan (Jets), but he’s won 37.5% of his games (and will likely be fired).
Jason Licht (27-52) has a worse record than Mark Dominik (28-52). In fact, the worst GM I can think of (Matt Millen) has a 31.3% winning – Licht has a 33.8%. Licht is in Millen territory.
The Lovie Years
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1) Johnson, Collins, Verner and McCown
Some will say that Lovie is more to blame than Licht, that early in Lovie’s tenure he held the power. I don’t completely agree, but fair enough. This one isn’t primarily on Licht, but he still signed these guys to ridiculous contracts. It’s hard to hit on all your free agents. It’s also hard to bust on this many. Either Licht was just a yes-man, or he at least signed off on these picks. Neither are good hats for Licht to wear.
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2) Letting go of Penn and Zuttah
In some respects, this is the mistake that really sits on Licht. Penn in particular had a number of years of high-level play left. He let him walk and paid Collins more. Zuttah was also quite productive for at least a couple more years.
This is how bad teams, and bad GMs, stay bad. They filled Penn’s roster spot with Collins. But because Collins was so bad, they had to spend a high draft pick. Because they whiffed on the evaluation (and ~50% of picks bust) so Smith is a bust. So they’ve spent millions and a 2nd round pick to fix a problem they created. The Bucs will need to spend another high pick to try again to fix this mistake.
If the Bucs had just kept Penn, they would have a good LT and could’ve spent the picks and money elsewhere (and taken time to draft a replacement). Instead, Licht created a massive hole and is burning cash and picks to fix it.
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3) Trading Barron
I’m sure Lovie had a hand in this as well. But rather than find a role for a player who had flashed talent, they traded him for a late round pick. With the Rams, per PFF, Barron has graded out as an above-average LB. Lovie/Licht whiffed again. The one positive is that one of these picks went into the trade up for Marpet.
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4) Drafting Winston
I know I’m going to get some push back here. But as of today, Winston in his 4th year is a below average NFL QB. I’m talking about his career and his 2018 season.
He’s PFF’s 28th ranked QB, 19th in DYAR, 17th in DVOA, 10th in QBR, and failed to improve in his deep ball placement or turnovers, leaving him a limited QB.
I understand there are severe Winston fans on here, but you can at least admit that Winston’s evaluation is up in the air. The Bucs will be evaluating whether to cut/trade/resign him in 2019 which is not what you want to decide in the 5th year of a 1st round pick.
The Koetter Years
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5) Hiring Koetter
This is obvious now. Koetter should not have been an NFL coach. There’s a reason GM’s usually get one shot to hire a coach. And he whiffed badly. While Koetter is a decent OC but he never should have been a HC.
Who made that decision? And why does he get another shot?
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6) Drafting Aguayo
This almost feels unfair. But I’ll again point out that not only did they whiff on the evaluation (so badly that he didn’t even make two seasons) but there was ZERO chance this could be a good pick given the scarce draft resources invested. Drafting well is about value and positional scarcity. While not the worst pick, this was the stupidest pick in Buccaneers draft history.
It’s easy to assume that Licht learned from this. But – I don’t think he did. Here are his comments after releasing Aguayo (on what he learned):
“What did I learn from this? I’ve said this before, but when we took him, we essentially anointed him. If I could do it again, I would have gone back and brought in competition to challenge him. I look back on that a lot. Roberto is a great kid, but the magnitude of that position, and the pressure on a 21-year-old—his performance is affecting the lives of men who have families to support. That got tough.”
7) Signing Folk, Murray, Catanzaro, Santos
Bad teams stay bad by compounding bad mistakes. This is how the Browns are the Browns and the Bucs are the Bucs (except the Browns aren’t the Browns anymore). The Bucs had an above average kicker in Barth they released after drafting Aguayo (Matt Bryant’s release was worse). When Aguayo busted, they now needed to sign another kicker. So they signed the worst FA kicker in 2017. Let me reiterate – if they had signed any other FA kicker in 2017 they would have been far better than Folk. EVERY SINGLE FA kicker was better in 2017 than Folk. By a lot.
So Licht, like with Penn, took an area that wasn’t a problem and turned it into a disaster.
So then he mis-evaluated again and signed Murray. Who stunk. So he signed Catanzaro – who might’ve ALSO been the worst kicker in 2018. And then he replaced him with Santos who hasn’t missed an XP but who’s FG% is worse than Catanzaro’s.
In his entire tenure Licht has been hilariously incompetent at finding a kicker.
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8) Martin’s Contract
Licht was admittedly in a tough place with Martin. He had a career year after becoming a FA. This also is far from Licht’s biggest mistake. And I also like Martin.
But the reality is that they gave a big contract to a player that apparently everyone at One Buc knew had some drug issues. Luckily they were able to void guarantees because of it.
The end result is that Martin was the 3rd highest paid RB in 2016 and was the 7th highest paid in 2017.
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9) Sims & Mchnichols
RB depth has been poor under Licht’s tenure. Sims was a bad 3rd round pick with a number of superior players available later (including a pass catcher in James White).
And how about taking Mchnichols in the 5th. Somehow, in one of the most talented RB drafts in recent memory Licht comes out with a big fat ZERO.
This is the draft with Kamara and Mixon and Conner and Cohen and Mack and Jones, etc. etc. etc. Even drafting in the 5th Licht could’ve taken Aaron Jones or Elijah McGuire or Chris Carson. Or UDFAs like Matt Breida or Corey Clement or Austin Ekeler.
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10) ROJO
Rojo deserves his own spot to highlight Licht’s ineptitude.
We all know a GM will miss on lots of picks – it happens. The goal isn’t perfection. But the goal is success.
And drafting a COLLEGE two-down back who can’t pass protect or pass catch is INSANE. To be a functional back in today’s NFL you HAVE to be effective in the passing game. And RoJo wasn’t even that player in college.
And then to take that player in the 2nd round? Flat out stupid.
I also want it to sink in that Sutton and Landry and Johnson and Pettis and Josh Jackson and Donte Jackson and a host of other players were available at that spot.
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11) Depth RBs in general
Of all the positions in the NFL, the RB position is the easiest to find (after kickers/punters). Yet the Bucs have no talent behind Barber. They’ve wasted a pick on Sims and McNichols and Rojo and have little to show from the rest of their players. There are young RBs all around the league flashing (because it’s easy to find). Yet the Bucs have zero young RB talent on the roster.
Their 2nd round pick is so bad he can’t even see the field in Week 17 and instead they’re giving carries to a JAG (Barber) and Jacquizz Rodgers.
It’s embarrassing that that is the Buccaneers RB depth.
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12) The UDFAs
Licht gets a lot of credit for finding UDFAs like Humphries. This is stupid.
I like Humphries, he’s a very good slot WR and has done well in the NFL. But when praising Licht for this move, we need to be aware that most slot WRs are UDFAs. Whether Edelman or Beasley you can get decent production from these types of players. It’s a decent find, but it’s not an amazing move. Licht did what every other GM around the NFL does. I guess that’s a +?
Licht has NOT had great success with UDFAs. EVERY NFL TEAM HAS CONTRIBUTING UDFAs. Finding a slot WR and TE2 is not impressive in the slightest.
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13) Donovan Smith
Not much more needs to be said here. I’ve said for years he was terrible and its nice to have everyone come around. Was widely questioned as a pick coming out. Has been horrible. Compounding mistakes.
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14) J.R. Sweezy & Jensen
Some people think Sweezy was good when he left the Bucs. Yes, Warhop sucks. But Sweezy was not, has not, and will not be a competent NFL guard. While Carroll and Tom Cable are fans of Sweezy’s, he was a bad guard on a bad offensive line. Even moderately supportive analysts like the excellent Dan Kelly do not think he’s particularly good (or developed very much). Licht overpaid for a bad player, hoping he’d become something he never was.
For the record he’s PFF’s 73rd ranked guard. The only compliment you can give him is he’s better than Benenoch/Cappa.
As for Jensen, he had one good year on Baltimore playing beside good guards on a good offensive line. He’s been terrible and has earned PFF’s grade as the 28th centre.
Bad GMs overpay by over-projecting talent.
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15) Benenoch (and Cappa)
Caleb Benenoch is probably the worst guard I can remember watching in the last 5 years at least. I have no idea how Licht thought he should start or there was anything redeemable about his play. He fucked Koetter on this one big time, saddling him with a player who shouldn’t even be in the NFL.
Add in the fact that Cappa can’t beat out perhaps the worst starting guard in the NFL and looks terrible when in (he’s probably in the wrong position) and… I don’t know what to say.
Red Board “GMs” and “Scouts” should not be smarter than an NFL GM. But they are. It’s insane.
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16) The Offensive Line in General
The offensive line has gotten less talented over Licht’s tenure. It’s pass blocking was good in 2017 but regressed in 2018 and its run blocking has been terrible.
The 2013 Bucs OL was Penn-Meredith-Zuttah-Joseph-Dotson. 3 of those players had at least 3 good years of football ahead. Joseph was done and Meredith was a depth piece.
But it’s light years better than Smith-Marpet-Jensen-Benenoch-Dotson. Because of Dotson’s injuries/age, there is one good player on that OL. ONE.
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17) VH3
This has been discussed to death. Another busted pick.
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18) Baker at NT
This is one of my major criticisms of Licht. This was a straight, blatant, inexcusable whiff on a player. The Bucs expected Baker to be run-stuffing NT who could take on double teams. This would allow Smith to be more creative in his schemes and free up McCoy and the DEs.
Unfortunately, this is not the player Baker was or is. He’s more of a 3-tech and neither has the ability nor stamina to hold up to regular double teams. He’ s also not particularly effective as a run defender. And when you look at any scouting reports from his time at Washington, this was widely known. This was not a secret. Baker was brought here to be a player he never was.
It’s moves like this that make me think Licht doesn’t know what he’s doing. These mistakes aren’t just bad luck but the end result of a GM and staff who struggle to correctly identify and project players.
- 19) Pass Rush
Licht finally succeeded in helping the pass rush.
Bizarrely, Licht went into 2017 with a 32 year old, injury-prone, one year wonder and two injured, limited production DEs. While many media and fans were hopeful, it would just take one thing going wrong for this pass rush to fall apart. Unfortunately, everything went wrong with Jaq Smith and Spence being injured and Ayers has been the player he’s always been. On top of this players like Gholston seem to have regressed and there’s no young talent available beneath them.
He went into 2018 with JPP, McCoy, Spence, Vea, Allen, Unrein, Curry, Gholston, and then signed Nassib. It has been an improvement.
But there is again little depth or talent here. Unrein was another busted signing and Curry, Spence, Allen, and Gholston have underwhelmed. McCoy is not expected to be back next year. Leaving an aged JPP, Nassib, and Vea as potentially the only pieces on this line. While Nassib and Vea have flashed they are far from complete or great pieces (although in future years may be).
I want to be clear: Licht fielded an improved line in 2018 but it is far from certain it will continue in 2019. Major holes and question marks.
- 20) The Secondary
Lovie and Smith have deservedly gotten a lot of the blame for poor technique and scheme with the Bucs secondary.
But Licht hasn’t gotten nearly enough blame for drafting this train wreck.
He resigned Grimes who was atrocious. Justin Evans regressed struggling with the same stuff he struggled with in college. MJ Stewart was a bad pick. VH3 is a bust who may be able to play nickel. Davis has some talent. Smith has developed. Whitehead is a limited safety who can play in the box.
So after 5 years Licht trotted out two young, developing players (Davis & Smith) a question mark (Evans) and a bunch of JAGs and trash.
Licht’s General Mistakes
- 21) Trading Up
Licht loves to trade up. There’s nothing wrong with doing so occasionally. But Licht trades up with great regularity. No GM can regularly beat the draft – it’s never been done. So good GMs get around this by accumulating picks and finding value. By constantly trading up, Licht seems to believe that he can beat the draft.
This may have changed in 2018 with very intelligent trade downs. But then he whiffed on those picks (more on that later).
The Bucs have had 7-6-7-6-8 picks in his tenure. Adding in comp picks, the average team has 7.9 picks and the Bucs have had 6.8 with Licht. This is a big reason why the Bucs are lacking depth. Licht is arrogant.
- 22) Drafted Top Ten 4/5 Years
Licht has picked in the top 10 four years out of five. While it’s easy to point to his hits (Evans, Marpet, etc.), if Licht is an above-average drafter he should be hitting on more picks than he is. Drafting so high is a huge advantage to a good drafter, which Licht is not.
- 23) Ignored the Trenches
Licht has made a mess of the trenches on both sides of the ball (discussed above). In 5 years he’s found one good OL (Marpet) and one good DL (JPP). It’s too early to evaluate Vea/Nassib. And he’s whiffed on a ton of others.
Just look at Licht’s premium picks: 2 TEs, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 QB, 3 OL, 1 DE, 1 DT, 4 DB, 1 LB, 1 K. I’m mocking, but he’s spent as many premium picks on TEs or RBs as he has defensive linemen. In fact, the Bucs have spent as many premium picks on the NFL’s 3 lowest valued positions (K, TE, RB) as both OL and DL.
Outside of the premium picks, he’s picked only 4 trench players (3 OL, 1 DT).
Statistically under Licht the Bucs are right near the bottom of the NFL in picks spent on the trenches.
- 24) Win Now, Baby!
Licht keeps thinking this team is ready to win now. He is very poor at evaluating a team. This is based on both what he says and what he does.
In 2014 under Lovie he thought this roster was ready to win now.
In 2016 he spent two premium picks on a kicker because this team was ready to win now. You only think that makes sense if you’re a kicker away from being a playoff team. Even then you’re an idiot.
In 2017, he thought he’d assembled a playoff roster.
In 2018 – well, another 5-11 season. But apparently this roster is “talented”.
And this was a year the Bucs had a wide-open NFC South with the Panthers and Falcons collapsing. And they couldn’t even make the playoffs and ended up last in the division. That’s tragically embarassing. It’s the kind of embarrassing that should cause you to pack your stuff and move to a town where no one knows you.
Licht continuously misjudges the talent on this team. He has never constructed a playoff roster and clearly has no idea what one looks like.
- 25) 27 in 80
That’s Jason Licht’s record. That’s a 33.8% winner percentage! That’s worse than Dominik and almost equal to Matt Millen’s 31%.
Or to put another way: Licht averages 5.4 wins a season.
- 26) Licht’s Draft History
Have a look: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam/draft.htm
It’s really ugly. Ignore 2018 (its far too early to tell). But the rest of the drafts are UGLY. Every GM will miss on a lot of picks. That’s just how it is. But good GMs will also have drafts where they knock it out of the park. Licht has never had that draft. He just has a ton of misses with a couple hits.
2014: Evans, ASJ, Sims, Edwards, Pamphile, Herron
2015: Winston?, Smith, Marpet, Kwon?, Bell, Clay, Iosefa
2016: Hargreaves, Spence, Aguayo, R Smith, Benenoch, Bond, Vitale
2017: Howard, Evans?, Godwin, Beckwith?, McNichols, Tu’ikolovatu
2018: Vea?, Rojo, Stewart, Davis?, Cappa?, Whitehead?, Watson?, Cichy
Leaving aside 2018 (outside of Rojo/Cichy) because its too early, he’s netted some DISMAL draft. And players like Justin Evans and Godwin have regressed in 2018. Winston, Kwon, and Beckwith are also question marks.
And don’t’ forget that 3 of the 4 drafts he PICKED IN THE TOP 10.
- 27) Not Getting Anything For Glennon
Stupidly, Licht didn’t get anything for an asset in Glennon. The argument some of us made was that, given Osweiler’s contract, the Bucs could get a comp pick anyways when Glennon signed in FA. And they might have – except Licht spent a boatload in FA. Which led to a 5-11 team…
Good teams would rather trade assets early than late. Hello Bill Belichick and… Richard Seymour, Jamie Collins, Jimmy Garropolo, etc. Bad teams get nothing for temporarily valuable assets. This is again Licht misjudging the talent on this team. Mike Glennon was not a good QB, certainly not significantly better than QBs like Hoyer or McCown, who were available as FAs.
Licht could have gotten assets (at least a 3rd round pick per PR). Instead, he “traded” a 3rd round pick for 1 year of Glennon’s services.
- 28) Licht Doesn’t Know How to Work the Comp Pick System
Via the compensatory picks, the average NFL team gets almost one extra pick a year. Good teams very effectively manipulate this system (see NE and BAL) to freely accumulate extra picks. It has to do with how and when they sign FAs, who they sign, etc. Licht has NEVER received a compensatory pick in 4 years.
From 2014-2017 the Bucs average 6.5 picks – well below league average. Over that time, the Ravens average 9!!! (9!) picks per draft. Ozzie Newsome knows he’s not any better at drafting, so he’d better accumulate picks.
- 29) Licht Severely Misjudges Talent
I want to touch on 4 players as an example of this. We know every GM misses. But Licht does so in a way that is embarrassing and demonstrates his inability to ever be an effective GM.
Aguayo – Not for the pick but because Aguayo never had what it took both mentally and physically to be a great NFL kicker. For all the bullshit, he struggled with 40+ kicks in college (where you make your living in the NFL) and had a flawed kicking style. Leaving aside the high pick, Aguayo shouldn’t have been signed, period.
M.J. Stewart – There are base physical traits you need to play certain positions in the NFL. These are not “probably need” but “must have”. And Licht completely missed that Stewart never had the lateral ability or athleticism to play an interior DB position.
Rojo – Apparently Licht wanted a fast “explosive” RB. So he ignored every other absolutely necessary metric (aka pass blocking/catching) and drafted a useless player. A 2nd round RB that can’t even see the field is unheard of.
Chris Baker – I hit on this above, but again he was never the player the Bucs signed him to be. There are internet scouting reports from Washington talking about how Baker is a sometimes lazy 3 tech who is bad again double teams. So what does Licht do? Sign him to play NT beside McCoy’s 3-tech. Gross and embarrassing failure to scout.
- 31) Licht is terrible in Free Agency
Like drafting, no GM is going to hit on every big FA signing. Which is why most teams don't have many. But MAN, Licht has sucked at signing free agents. Note: I'm only including big deals (and kickers):
2014: Michael Johnson, McCown, Collins, Verner
2015: Carter
2016: Martin, Sweezy, Grimes, Ayers, Anger
2017: Djax, Baker, Ward, Folk
2018: Jensen, Curry, Allen, Unrein, Catanzaro, Santos, *Grimes
Leaving aside Djax (who I still think was a good signing), the Bucs received two good years from Grimes, one good year from Ayers and...
That's a train wreck of signings. The best you can say about Curry and Allen is they didn't suck as bad as Johnson and Baker - although they likely will also be released after one year.
- 31) Licht hasn’t improved the talent on the team
Some posters and media (here’s looking at you SR) think this team is more talented under Licht.
This is dumb.
After 5 years the CB, S, LB, OT, OG, C, RB, K, and QB positions all have major questions. Leaving aside Winston and assuming that JPP maintains his play and Nassib improves, there are massive holes on this roster.
Which is why it went 5-11. The following positions need to be replaced: LT, C, RG, RT, RB, RB2, NT, CB1, CB2, SS, MLB, SLB, K.
All teams have holes. Those aren’t holes, that’s a black hole.
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Conclusion: You won’t agree with me on every point. That's fine. The point is: Licht has made a TON of boneheaded decisions. More boneheaded decisions than any GM should make. He's made so many he's likely the worst GM in the NFL right now.
And it’s not just the mistakes, its the inability to learn. It’s the arrogance and bad drafting philosophy.
When the season ended, Licht should’ve been the first to go.
The fact that he didn’t means the Glazers are clueless and this team is going to keep sucking for yearrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs.
We are in Matt Millen territory my fellow fans. THIS is the guy who should hire the next coach? Get ready for more heavy drinking next year.
