Spot-on.Where i am not optimistic is looking at their 2024 opponents
let's look at the away games, non-division - Dallas, Chiefs, Chargers, Lions, and Giants.
I mean, it's entirely possible we won't be favored in any of those games. Can't even rule out the Giants bouncing back from a rough year. What's the best we can do here, 2-3? I think be hard pressed to say better than that.
the home games, non-division - Eagles, 49ers, Ravens, Commanders, Broncos, and Raiders. I'm thinking the best we can do here is 4-2 and that's us being the better version team we were in the second half of the year.
now to the division. Say what you will but the best we can do is 4-2. We are not far off talent wise from the Saints or Falcons and i am sure the Panthers can only go up from where they were last year.
so that gets us to 10-7 with losses to Chiefs, Dallas, and Lions (stealing one from Chargers or Lions, dropping the other), Ravens, 49ers, Saints and Falcons.
this assumes wins over the Chargers and Eagles which are not gimme games.
unless we draft well this year, add some key pieces in free agency and Baker doesn't ying/yang, and maybe gets closer to mid 30s in TD passes, hard to not see another struggling year with the hope that the rest of the division also gets beat up.
This is as optimistic as it can get.
It will require ALL the pieces added in 2023 performing better, and adding some key pieces in the draft, to give us the talent injection needed to reach this level of optimism.
if we don't, it won't be because one player couldn't get us over the hump. It will be because we're rebuilding the race car while we're racing.
The first half of the season is solely (IMHO) to "PUNCH your ticket" into the Playoffs. It's not uncommon for a team that squeaks in the playoffs towards the end of the year and then gets HOT as a Wildcard team. MOMENTUM is a HUGE unquantifiable variable that is often Decides the Victors. Even "weak" sauce division champs can get Red Hot at the right time and go on to Wreck it in the playoffs. In 2002 I think we got in as WC or as Division champs, but we didn't get a BYE week. It's imperative to GO INTO the postseason "clicking- close to peak performance." We were clicking against the Iggles, and they represent the FLIP side of momentum and its effects. The Iggles were FEARED. Jalen Hurts is the "next Llamar," (let me know when Llamar gets past Mahomey) like last year or the year before, and yet this year, once the momentum "disappeared" for whatever reason...they were essentially "cooked." We just put them out of their "misery" in the postseason. Had they possessed the momentum of last year...we probably woulda started the OofSeason sooner... That's why this year stung. We FINALLY "gel'd" in the PLAYOFFS. That TO was a missed opportunity, a BIG ONE, one play to GET BACK INTO THE GAME....and who knows.... Anyhoo. In the next few days, we'll see who stays and who bolts...then we'll have a better idea if this is a "reload" or "rebuild" offseason.
The first half of the season is solely (IMHO) to "PUNCH your ticket" into the Playoffs.
A view shared (to a fault) by most players and coaches.
In fact, if you just look at the Bucs last season, you can see the play of Davis and Dean change late in the season as well as the defensive play calling of Bowles.
This is ONE positive to Mayfield; he seems to be better when it matters most. Not discounting the negatives, but this is NOT a common trait
where i am not optimistic is looking at their 2024 opponents
let's look at the away games, non-division - Dallas, Chiefs, Chargers, Lions, and Giants.
i mean it's quite possible we wont be favored in any of those games. Cant even rule out the Giants bouncing back from a rough year. I mean what's the best we can do here, 2-3? I think be hard pressed to say better than that.
the home games, non-division - Eagles, 49ers, Ravens, Commanders, Broncos, and Raiders. I'm thinking the best we can do here is 4-2 and that's us being the better version team we were in the second half of the year.
now to the division. Say what you will but the best we can do is 4-2. We are not far off talent wise from the Saints or Falcons and i am sure the Panthers can only go up from where they were last year.
so that gets us to 10-7 with losses to Chiefs, Dallas, and Lions (stealing one from Chargers or Lions, dropping the other), Ravens, 49ers, Saints and Falcons.
this assumes wins over the Chargers and Eagles which are not gimme games.
unless we draft well this year, add some key pieces in free agency and Baker doesn't ying/yang, and maybe gets closer to mid 30s in TD passes, hard to not see another struggling year with the hope that the rest of the division also gets beat up.
Pretty good projections. Though LAC may not be that tough an out; they have serious cap issues and will have to trim a lot of quality players to get compliant. And they already have serious holes in their OL, at RB, and in their LB/DBs. Harbaugh will keep the best players, but he's going to lose a lot of quality. PHI also may not be very good in 2024. Sirianni isn't a good HC, their offense went completely belly up and their defense is now a mockery of itself. They have more holes/issues than $$$ and quality coaching can probably account for.
Anyway, 10 Ws is a solid conservative bet. I think TB could win as many as 12-13, don't know why TB couldn't go 5-1 or 6-0 vs. NFC-S, considering that ATL doesn't even have a QB, CAR doesn't have any weapons to speak of and a popgun QB, and NOR, well, Derek Carr. At the end of the day, TB has better coaching, a better QB situation (assuming they keep Baker), weapons and a better defense than their Divisional rivals. But if I had to bet on it, I'd put $$$ on 11 wins in 2024 no problem.
And btw, before the start of 2023, I put $$$ on TB going over for the season. Baker with Evans and Godwin, with what I knew was still a very potent defense? Easiest $50 I bet all year.
I wouldn’t make that bet right now.
Even after FA’s/draft - I think 10 wins is going to be tough, I would not make the bet on 12/13 wins - either way.
Stealing a couple of possessions, getting a victory against one/several of those team(s) - is going to be leveraged against avoiding the same.
That was the same thing we faced last year, without having this year in the bank - it looked a whole lot more bleak.
Somehow, it looks a little more plausible, if you have Baker, Mike, and AWJ, LVD, adding some upgrades on the interior of the o-line, and getting this years rookie defensive additions to take that next step.
Lots of moving pieces.
I wouldn’t make that bet right now.
Even after FA’s/draft - I think 10 wins is going to be tough, I would not make the bet on 12/13 wins - either way.
Stealing a couple of possessions, getting a victory against one/several of those team(s) - is going to be leveraged against avoiding the same.
That was the same thing we faced last year, without having this year in the bank - it looked a whole lot more bleak.
Somehow, it looks a little more plausible, if you have Baker, Mike, and AWJ, LVD, adding some upgrades on the interior of the o-line, and getting this years rookie defensive additions to take that next step.
Lots of moving pieces.
I don't think Vegas has the O/Us up yet anyway. And when they come out, my gut says it'll be in the neighborhood of 8.5 wins for TB in 2024. Anything under 10.0 should be easy $$$. And i probably will take that bet, if Baker and Evans are both Bucs. And it's not like I said they WILL win 12-13 games; I said they probably COULD. Obviously, I'm counting on the idea that Coen will get some help on the IOL and manufacture a credible run game. And that the defense won't drop off a cliff.
Boy, there's a lot of optimism in this thread.
12 wins, 13 wins...wow!
Looking at the schedule, assuming we re-sign everyone, and our division getting better; I'd say we'll fall somewhere between 8-10 wins and the division will come down to the wire between us and the Falcons.
I can roll with this.Boy, there's a lot of optimism in this thread.
12 wins, 13 wins...wow!
Looking at the schedule, assuming we re-sign everyone, and our division getting better; I'd say we'll fall somewhere between 8-10 wins and the division will come down to the wire between us and the Falcons.
Look who’s getting all optimistic…
(Now, don’t get it twisted, I’m only recognizing your reasoning abilities…and you likely noticed that I did use the word IF, twice).
where i am not optimistic is looking at their 2024 opponents
let's look at the away games, non-division - Dallas, Chiefs, Chargers, Lions, and Giants.
i mean it's quite possible we wont be favored in any of those games. Cant even rule out the Giants bouncing back from a rough year. I mean what's the best we can do here, 2-3? I think be hard pressed to say better than that.
the home games, non-division - Eagles, 49ers, Ravens, Commanders, Broncos, and Raiders. I'm thinking the best we can do here is 4-2 and that's us being the better version team we were in the second half of the year.
now to the division. Say what you will but the best we can do is 4-2. We are not far off talent wise from the Saints or Falcons and i am sure the Panthers can only go up from where they were last year.
so that gets us to 10-7 with losses to Chiefs, Dallas, and Lions (stealing one from Chargers or Lions, dropping the other), Ravens, 49ers, Saints and Falcons.
this assumes wins over the Chargers and Eagles which are not gimme games.
unless we draft well this year, add some key pieces in free agency and Baker doesn't ying/yang, and maybe gets closer to mid 30s in TD passes, hard to not see another struggling year with the hope that the rest of the division also gets beat up.
Pretty good projections. Though LAC may not be that tough an out; they have serious cap issues and will have to trim a lot of quality players to get compliant. And they already have serious holes in their OL, at RB, and in their LB/DBs. Harbaugh will keep the best players, but he's going to lose a lot of quality. PHI also may not be very good in 2024. Sirianni isn't a good HC, their offense went completely belly up and their defense is now a mockery of itself. They have more holes/issues than $$$ and quality coaching can probably account for.
Anyway, 10 Ws is a solid conservative bet. I think TB could win as many as 12-13, don't know why TB couldn't go 5-1 or 6-0 vs. NFC-S, considering that ATL doesn't even have a QB, CAR doesn't have any weapons to speak of and a popgun QB, and NOR, well, Derek Carr. At the end of the day, TB has better coaching, a better QB situation (assuming they keep Baker), weapons and a better defense than their Divisional rivals. But if I had to bet on it, I'd put $$$ on 11 wins in 2024 no problem.
And btw, before the start of 2023, I put $$$ on TB going over for the season. Baker with Evans and Godwin, with what I knew was still a very potent defense? Easiest $50 I bet all year.
i mean even in our Brady days we never went 6-0 in the division. I am sure Atlanta will sign a QB, Carolina will be much improved, and the Saints will take at least one from us
5-1 would mean we are firing on all cylinders but 4-2 would be most likely and not in a bad position to win division with a 4-2 record.
win 12 or 13 games? i mean you do realize we have only done that twice in our history, right? the 2002 Super bowl season and in 2021 the repeat run to our 2nd super bowl. In both cases, those teams talent levels and expectations were a tad different than this one
The Bucs were given quite a hard schedule.
i thought the same in 2022 when they were given the AFC North and Chiefs. They went 0-5 in those games.
we now get the AFC West and Ravens - looks equally as hard.
i mean even in our Brady days we never went 6-0 in the division.
Yeah, that's difficult for any team. Division games are different. Very rarely does a team sweep their division. It may happen once or twice a year. Not common at all. Hell, Tampa (along with about 10 other teams) has never done it.
8.5 - 9 wins seems more likely. For me 10 wins is an absolute max/all-cylinders-firing all the balls bounced our way, projection.
So let me take another look at this:
ATL (X2)
BAL
CAR (X2)
DEN
LVR
NOR (X2)
PHI
SF
WAS
DAL
DET
KC
LAC
NYG
First things first, let's get the obvious Ws out of the way, which should be:
CAR (X2)
DEN
LVR
WAS
NYG
Can't think of a good reason TB can't win those games convincingly. Now let's just assume TB splits with both ATL/NOR, though sweeping NOR seems possible, but let's be conservative and take the splits, so between ATL/NOR TB goes 2-2. That's 8 wins, right?
The remaining opponents:
BAL
PHI
SF
KC
DAL
DET
LAC
Again, starting with the obvious, Ls this time:
BAL/SF/KC
That leaves 4 games to get two wins. And really when you look at those teams:
Well, your team just blew the doors off PHI, in the playoffs when it mattered, and now Jason Kelce has retired which is going to significantly hurt their offense in 2024. I'd feel pretty good about facing them again.
TB was one dropped TD pass by Evans, or one possession, from tying/beating DET in the NFC-DG. And really, wasn't your defense doing a pretty decent job of holding the Lions down until your two CBs went down with injuries halfway in the 3rd quarter? I mean, in their first three drives you give up a FG and a TD, but then after that it's punt/punt/punt, until that DB of yours got hurt in the 3rd quarter, no?
LAC has been a snake-bitten franchise for nearly a decade now, but Harbaugh will make them better. Problem is all their aging skill players on both sides of the ball and their cap issues. The roster we saw in 2023 won't all be back, and they're going to lose several of their best players. This may turn out to be an easier contest than anyone thinks right now.
DAL, well . . . really who knows? They could be good, or they could be garbage; that's just DAL.
Point being, all of the above 4 teams have a lot of ?s and holes. At least two, if not three of them should be no worse than coin flips, imo. YMMV
Yep, signing Baker makes this an optimistic outlook. Brutal schedule, but it will require the key upgrades identified. Which will take money, and we get a chance to build a better offense around him, and add to an already good, young, defense.
So let me take another look at this:
ATL (X2)
BAL
CAR (X2)
DEN
LVR
NOR (X2)
PHI
SF
WAS
DAL
DET
KC
LAC
NYG
First things first, let's get the obvious Ws out of the way, which should be:
CAR (X2)
DEN
LVR
WAS
NYG
Can't think of a good reason TB can't win those games convincingly. Now let's just assume TB splits with both ATL/NOR, though sweeping NOR seems possible, but let's be conservative and take the splits, so between ATL/NOR TB goes 2-2. That's 8 wins, right?
The remaining opponents:
BAL
PHI
SF
KC
DAL
DET
LAC
Again, starting with the obvious, Ls this time:
BAL/SF/KC
That leaves 4 games to get two wins. And really when you look at those teams:
Well, your team just blew the doors off PHI, in the playoffs when it mattered, and now Jason Kelce has retired which is going to significantly hurt their offense in 2024. I'd feel pretty good about facing them again.
TB was one dropped TD pass by Evans, or one possession, from tying/beating DET in the NFC-DG. And really, wasn't your defense doing a pretty decent job of holding the Lions down until your two CBs went down with injuries halfway in the 3rd quarter? I mean, in their first three drives you give up a FG and a TD, but then after that it's punt/punt/punt, until that DB of yours got hurt in the 3rd quarter, no?
LAC has been a snake-bitten franchise for nearly a decade now, but Harbaugh will make them better. Problem is all their aging skill players on both sides of the ball and their cap issues. The roster we saw in 2023 won't all be back, and they're going to lose several of their best players. This may turn out to be an easier contest than anyone thinks right now.
DAL, well . . . really who knows? They could be good, or they could be garbage; that's just DAL.
Point being, all of the above 4 teams have a lot of ?s and holes. At least two, if not three of them should be no worse than coin flips, imo. YMMV
Its more hopeful than looking forward from this point in 2023.
Still pretty tough.
There are always one, two, maybe three games where the Bucs look unprepared and not ready to play vs lesser opponents. These are unaccounted for in the list. I'd say a range of 7-10 to 10-7 is possible. Another 8-9 or 9-8 season seems most likely to me. Of course I would welcome a better result.
There are always one, two, maybe three games where the Bucs look unprepared and not ready to play vs lesser opponents. These are unaccounted for in the list. I'd say a range of 7-10 to 10-7 is possible. Another 8-9 or 9-8 season seems most likely to me. Of course I would welcome a better result.
Good points.
There are always one, two, maybe three games where the Bucs look unprepared and not ready to play vs lesser opponents.
Agreed and good point.
