Sacks are not the best indicator of pass-rush productivity. According to PFF, Shaq Barrett has 65 pressures this year, behind only TJ Watt (68) and Aaron Donald (75). For all players with at least five sacks, there have been 416 sacks in the league this year, on 2,183 pressures. This equates to, on average, one sack for every 5.2 pressures (SPP, or Sack Per Pressure). Barrett is on pace for 80 pressures this year, assuming the same level of pressure productivity in the last three games as in the first 13 games. Assuming one sack on every 5.2 pressures, Shaq should be in the 15 sack range this year if he reverts to the league average of one sack per 5.2 pressures over 16 games (which is not happening; there are not enough games left for him to reach the league average). If Barret reverts to one sack per 5.2 pressures over the next three games and maintains his current pressure rate, he will end the year with around ten sacks. Back-to-back years with double-digit sacks would be tremendous.
As an FYI, here is the SPP data for this year's sack leaders:
*Aaron Donald - 14 sacks on 75 pressures. One sack per 5.4 pressures. Very close to the league SPP average.
*TJ Watt - 12 sacks on 68 pressures. One sack per 5.7 pressures. Very close to the league SPP average.
*Myles Garrett - 11 sacks on only 48 pressures. One sack per 4.0 pressures.
Donald and Watt have earned their sacks with a high number of pressures. Garrett is getting a bit lucky. At the league average sack per pressure rate, he should have 8.4 sacks, not 11.
One more data point:
*Shaq Barrett (from 2019 season) - 19.5 sacks on 81 pressures. One sack per 4.1 pressures! Barrett generated from an abnormally high SPP last year. At the league average of 5.2 SPP, Barrett should have posted 15.6 sacks, not 19.5 sacks. Last year he got "lucky" by around four sacks. This year he is getting “unlucky” by around approximately five sacks. At 65 pressures, he should have 12.5 sacks. He only has seven sacks.
*Interestingly, if you add Barrett's pressures for 2019 and projected pressures for 2020, you land at 161 pressures. At the league average SPP rate of 5.2, this equates to 31 sacks across two years. If Barret ends this year with ten sacks, he will have 29.5 sacks in two years. This is very, very close to the predictive model of 31.
To wrap up, Barret is a pass-rushing BEAST. Even better, he is a consistent beast. He is top three in the NFL in pressures over the last two years. His talent and productivity indicate he should be in the 10-20 sack range every year and will likely land in 12-17 range, if healthy. Barret is elite.
