Contrary to most people on the red board I am happy with where this franchise is at currently. This reason I believe this is, because this is young football team that has been competitive given the rash of injuries and tough schedule thus far (eg playing two Super Bowl contenders from last season back to back). There is still plenty of growth ahead for the rest of the season to be optimistic IMVHO. Bucs also have a first year HC and a third year GM, so this rebuilding of the team and franchise from scouts and throughout the organization that has taken time. I want to see this franchise coalesce into something that is a consistent product like the Ravens and Steelers put out. I am always against drastic changes for the most part, and I think this franchise as a whole is heading in the right direction. Another sudden knee jerk reaction will only cause more harm than help in the long run.
1. Injuries
This has hampered the full potential of this team thus far. But it also has shown clear weaknesses and young players that are emerging or showing signs of emergence.
Hopefully the team takes it more seriously in the next off season to go after defensive tackle depth, real NFL caliber safties, and more competition/depth at OL/WR.
I strongly felt the Bucs this off season were very complacent in addressing depth areas that have chronically been an issue (eg DT) or knew it could be an issue again (eg OG). WR was a gamble on Licth’s part with young developmental guys and there is still the rest of the season to see how that gamble plays out when players return from injury at that position. Sweazy isn’t going to come back and earn a starting role as Pamphille has owned the LG spot up to this point. Backup DL may not be generating pressure but look competent in staying in their gaps and points to how the starting Bucs front four is overrated to an extent.
2. Rebuilding team in progress
Young starting QB, young OL, young RB core, and a young TE thrust into a starting role. This team on offense has potential that is off the charts and yet they haven’t even hit their stride yet. That simply amazes me given the sheer offensive production thus far despite having streaks of sloppiness and inconsistency (eg Winston).
Defensively, I can’t be as optimistic for growth on that side of the ball as they are missing too many pieces. But having more healthy players on D-line will allow more of a rotation which will lead to more pressure and makes the back end look a lot better.
Kwon Alexander to me is the big question mark, but his improvement is outstanding from his rookie year so far. He has a lot of room to go to be a consistent elite player like Hardy Nickerson as an example. But, if he elevates his play to be a consistent tackler and plugging gaps I like him at MIKE moving forward. Alexander is like a traditional mike hitting gaps but is also capable of covering the pipe like a third safety on the field. So, the sky is the limit for this kid.
Hargreaves is slowly proving he can play as a starter kicking it on the outside which I have to admit has peaked my interest relative to his other rookie peers. Given the NFL is a passing league his skill set seems tailor made for a league that relies so much on passing now as a means of moving the first down markers. Hargreaves is almost a slightly more athletic version of Barber and that is very exciting to me watching another version of Ronde emerge before our eyes.
3. Rookie HC
I am satisfied with where Koetter is at as a rookie HC at this point. In fact, I think he is in better shape than Schiano or Morris were at this point of their respective careers as Bucs HCs. Clock management is still going to be an issue, but that is something identified that needs work and improvement. Roster management is another work in progress, but given the slew of injuries thus far Koettter has weathered the storm, and held together this combination of players on the roster to compete week in and week out.
4. Licht’s performance as a third year GM
I like Licht’s lunch pail mentality in finding gems in free agency and the draft. I also like Licht as the GM moving forward in building this team and scouting organization up to its fullest ceiling. But, I do not like Licht’s free agency decisions made on the open market for players at all. This is because, Licht relies too much at value end of the free agency spectrum instead of the impact spectrum. In other words, if Licth is really intrigued by value then he should just keep signing low cost players like Anger moving forward and ditch the idea of tossing loads of money to middle tier players because of their perceived “value”.
Licht’s methodology of doubling down on positions with mentors/draftees is a good idea as Dominik did similar structure to his team architectures.
The problem is that free agency is primarily to find players that can step in and perform. If the Bucs want free agents to be complimentary players for incoming draftees that is fine if they are clear upgrades in the short term. But the Bucs need to accumulate draft picks and stockpile draft choices and not throw them away. Licht needs to choose moving forward.
1. Impact free agents
Or
2. Get as many dice rolls as you can via the draft.
Right now Licht’s best free agent from this recent off season is the punter Anger and that to me points to major red flag issue. That red flag issue is the team is trying to stay in a budget for free agents. But they are missing out on players that are clear upgrades for a team with clear holes. If a free agent isn’t a clear upgrade then I don’t see the point of a mentorship IMVHO.
5. Bucs marketing improved dramatically the last few years
My biggest complaint with the Bucs during Raheem/Schiano era was the lack of marketing and positive image of this franchise. The official website was antiquated compared to other team websties, the events for fans were not frequent enough, and team info was scarce or hard to find for the average fan that was not a hardcore Bucs fan or out of state. All these issues have been addressed thus far as the team image wise looks a lot better to the Tampa Bay community and has made an effort to market to fans (eg Red Campaign). The new website has been a blessing and the new videos discussing the Bucs weekly has been very engaging.
Moving forward after the bye week
I want to see a defense that keeps everything in front of them and let the athletes on the team make plays (Hargreaves, David, Kwon, McCoy, Ayers, Jones, Spence, etc). Players like McDouglad, Conte, Tandy, etc just need to be in position and make plays. Defense isn’t about hitting the home run, it is about making the easy, simple throw to first base.
Offense need to become more balanced with the run, but the NFL is a passing league so passing is the heart of this offense and they should turn it up a notch. To have Winston in sync with this offense Koetter should consider up tempo and movement in his offense. Platoon at RB and rotate VJAX more into the slot and let young guys be given a shot on the outside opposite of Evans.
The team’s fortunes will be reversed if Aguayo can flip the script and turns into a reliable weapon for this team to scrap out much needed wins. If Aguayo can transform into an offensive weapon then this team can make a hard push for December.
December is what will make or break this team. Gruden, Morris, Schiano, and Lovie all failed in December. For the rebuilding of this team to be considered “complete” they have to finish strong in December of 2016. Period. Straight up how it is or we are looking at potentially perpetual rebuilding like the Browns and that will be a disaster as that will lead to more lost talent and cohesion.
One final thought: Jacquizz Rodgers gave his all on MNF. Thank you.
