Preseason Assessment

I’d say we likely stayed even from a talent perspective maybe marginally improved but you are still that .500 team you were the last 2 years

adding a center was their biggest move on offense which should help the offense. Much else remains unchanged. The offense performed much better this by their last half season push that it did in the beginning. Will they have the same sluggish start with a new OC?

the biggest lose on defense was Carlton Davis. That concerns me a bit in the secondary. Still no proven pass rush but losing Shaq was needed. He was done.

hope to see some of the younger guys take the next step

my homer prediction is 10-7 and division winner but could I see this team at 6-11 particularly with a sub mediocre head coach - for sure. 

I think "cautiously optimistic" is how I'd describe my outlook.  

Frankly, I think Canales was overrated.  I thought the NFL was a competion.  So Canales commits to running the ball and comes in 32 out of 32.  So what is his reward for last place?  Make him a head coach! The Bucs had 8 rushing TDs, one more than last place.  League leading teams had 27. They had the league worst YPC at 3.4.  The lack of an effective rushing attack was the main reason for the Bucs difficulties.  

For example, the Dec 31st game against the Saints the Bucs rushed for a total of 57 yards.  In the first half, they had runs of 5 yards, -1 (on 3rd and 1) - punt, then next drive runs were for 1, 1, 2,  and 3 yards - INT.  Next drive one run for -2 yards - punt.  Next drive no runs 3 and out punt.  Bucs go into the half down 17-0.  Point is that even near the end of the season Canales had not solved their rushing woes.  But they had more success in the playoffs.

I see an improved running game this season. Nowhere to go but up.  With the addition of Barton at Center and a new offensive system they will improve.  The new guy is putting in a new more complex offense and I'm sure it will not exactly be a well oiled machine right away, but it can't be worse.   An effective rushing attack will have a ripple effect and lead to a successful season IMO.  

Looking at the current roster, we have:

A Trio of "Elite Players" (AWJ, Wirfs, Evans)

A few "Really Good to Great Players" (LVD, Godwin, Vea)

A few "Promising 2nd-Year" Guys (Kancey and Diaby)

Then you have a handful of average to above average players (Dean, Mayfield, White, etc.)

________

Not sure how much better we are than last season, but I would expect some improvement. Especially from an offense that ranked in the bottom-half of the league in points scored and being lead by a QB ranked somewhere between #15th - #18th in the league. Offensive line should be improved, along with the running game, and play calling sequencing and personnel. 

Defensively, I think we'll hover around the #7 - #10 ranked (in points allowed) range. I think Diaby takes the next step and that we'll see a anomaly season out of either JTS or Nelson in contract years. Fully healthy Kancey and Vea to go with that, should see an uptick in the pass rush department. 

Losing Kwon Alexander 2.0 is addition by subtraction, and bringing back Whitehead is a huge upgrade over last year.

My only concern is CB. 

________

Ultimately, I believe this division is a 2-horse race between us and Atlanta.

Agree with the "cautiously optimistic" assessment. Overall many improvements to the team through FA and the draft as noted in the previous posts. Very few subtractions. This year's version of the Bucs should be improved over last year's team. The biggest challenge as I see it is the schedule. The Bucs absolutely need to win the winnable games. They need to turn the corner and win some games vs the better opponents. And go at least 4-2 in division. A real shot at the division round in playoffs, a stretch to make the NFC Championship and Super Bowl. The biggest plus is this team should be very competitive and fun to watch.

Basically they are a .500 club until some young players take a huge leap forward from the last two draft classes.  Need some of these drafted players from the 2022 and 2023 drafts respectively to really step up beyond the NFL average.  White put up an impressive all purpose yardage last season but if he can really crank out more yards on the ground I would definitely put him in the Ricky Watters category.   Otton has to show more and start to take over games which we saw glimpses of if he is to be considered a #1 TE on offense and show more grit as an inline blocker.  Somebody else in the secondary has to step up with turnovers whether it is McCollum or even the rookie Smith because we know what Whitehead and Winfield Jr. can do.  Same with pass rushers because we know that Vea can bring it but Kancey and Diaby have to step up and then a fourth has to step up.  

I am not counting on rookies to really contribute that much but if they can really elevate this team to stay .500 or better than is great.  Players like Irving, Barton, Braswell, Smith, McMillan, Culp.  But if one of the rookies emerges as a break out player that helps this team a lot.  If more than one rookie really is lights out then that means the Bucs have a chance to be a tough out even if they hover around .500 ball and are in the playoff sweepstakes come December. 

The Bucs do have a young core of players like Winfield Jr., White and Wirfs but they need more players to join and build that core group.

So this will be a big test for the coaches as they must really elevate a lot of these players to be more than just NFL average. 

@Alldaway2.0 That’s an interesting perspective. I do think there is (now) a better experienced coaching/teaching staff in key spots. In fact, with accomplished personalities involved like Tom Moore and Bruce Arians, the entire organization seems structured for developing coaches, positions, and personnel.

Not meaning to overstate the obvious, and maybe I’m slow to the game, but it sure seems as though there are a lot of interesting folks still associated with this team for some reason, right?

Nice breakdown from everyone so far - and really nice plot twist ADW. Something like this has been buzzing around my brain since the GOAT said goodbye - but not everyone left - have been curious about all of this.

Maybe it’s late and I’m just reading too much into it…but it makes for an interesting thought process.

Great posts!

When the Bucs hit that losing streak last season, but rallied that is a credit to the players but also the coaches.  Anytime a team can compete with so many drafted rookies and undrafted free agents it shows that team spent extra time coaching up these player to be as close to NFL average as possible.

If Coen can find ways to feature Otton more as a dynamic player in space that would be great.  Otton seemed destined to be an Alex Smith/Ken Dilger type but if Coen can unlock him to be a mismatch that really helps the WRs and RBs. 

I am really curious to see what K. Ross thinks of the CB competition and who emerges there to start opposite of Dean.  Dean may have to hold onto his job with some tough competition from Hall and McCollum.

Bucs secondary needs to come up with more INTs and coverage sacks to help a very young and inexperienced front seven. Vea, Gaines, Gholston, and David are the only old guard left. I feel good about Braswell, Watts, Diaby and Kancey.  But that backend needs to be more ball hawkish.

1) Running game should improve and needs to. More first downs, better red zone production.  The Bucs were 18th in points per game at 21.2. The league leaders in PPG (which were all the contenders) scored 26.6 and higher - DAL, SF, MIA, BAL, DET, BUF (surprisingly not KC).  But look at that list and that tells you that we aren't a contender unless we add six more points a game.  Barton becomes one of the top five most important players on the team from Day 1.  Mayfield, Wirfs, Vea, AWJ, Barton.  Barton needs to round into a very good player if not right away then very early on in the season.  

2) Injuries - The Bucs were pretty fortunate last year, other than Jensen.  Mayfield, Godwin, Vea, Evans, David.  Of course it's the NFL and injuries happen, but the Bucs haven't had the depth to handle it.  They just got pretty lucky last year. Knock on wood those guys are veterans who put their body on the line and when you get along in years those injuries happen more often.  There's nothing to be done except keep your fingers crossed.   I don't exactly know my point here, except that I hope the Bucs have the depth to have the next man when it comes time for  "next man up."

3) Pass rush should improve.  I think the Bucs will be able to provide more pressure with Kancey coming along and the Braswell addition.   As I said in another thread I think Kancey could be the "non-QB MVP" of the team this year.  Of course that will have a ripple effect of more turnovers.  The Bucs were 16th in takeaways per game, which is middle of the pack.  But they need to be better.  They need to be top five.  That's moving from 1.4 to 1.6 takeaways per game, about 3 or 4 more takeways in the year. Not alot but critical. 

Critical because this team doesn't have Patrick Mahomes or Christian McCaffrey.  It's not a superstar laden team, just a bunch of good players that have to come together and play sound team football.  If they do that they should be a contender.  I'm talking about one of the top half dozen teams that has a real chance to make the Superbowl.  I believe they can do that.  

@catherder great points - especially the luck with the injury bug - if we can duplicate THAT stat alone, I think it keeps our Bucs in contention.

Even if the Bucs improve to 24 points per game on offense that puts them beyond a middling team.  The inability of the offense to generate points contributed to the defense not being as good as it could have been.

Barton is integral for this along with the new scheme and additions of McMillian and Irving.  Bucs offense will be more aggressive on early downs which will really help flip field position even if they don't score early on.

"It’s preseason and we’re all doing the mental calculus to determine where we really are - so here’s my hard pre-season look at the team before this officially kicks into gear:

Mayfield is a good QB, but in my opinion he’s still somewhere around 12 to 15 ranked QB - assuming that’s true, the consensus is that your QB should be top 10 to get to be considered a Super Bowl contender - that means some area of the team HAS to be dominant. "

My thoughts about QB is that we have a great stack of them now. Better than we've ever had before TB 12. Now if BM can keep his focus on timing routes and keep up the momentum from the last eight games of last year I think we'll be ok. I was his worse critic in the first few games because he looked like he couldn't hit a timing route.

"O-line looks vastly improved, and has some good depth at key positions. I’d say that’s an improvement."

When we lost Marphet and Jensen I was thinking where are we going to get replacements? I am so proud of the picks and have faith in the O-Line.

"I think that should improve the running game, but I still wouldn’t put our run game in the “better than last year” category, because it too is still unproven."

I think from seeing our running game with White and our other RB's I feel that our new OC will be showing if we have improved or stay the same. I am hoping for the better.

"I think our defense is improved - but it’s not dominant (not Dungy level), it’s at least an edge rusher & some corners away from that level of play."

I too want to think that we've improved with our LB's CB's and Safeties and its my hope that they remember to study game film and remember that the other teams are trying to be better this year from last year. I also know that our back end can only be as good as our defensive front four which I am excited to see this year.

"Our OC looks promising, but he’s unproven at this point. Our HC is good & he showed some moxy in getting this team into the 2nd round of the playoffs last season, but he’s defensively-minded and has a history of poor clock management in crucial moments."

Couldn't have said it better in the above statement.

"In my opinion we’re at least a year out from being able to crack the code on getting to the NFC championship level of play needed to carry this team to the next level.

I would like to see us get back to the playoffs with this team before becoming a true believer - we seem to be improving - but did we do enough this season to become dominant in some area? Did we do enough to improve this team, overall? I have to say at this point, I don’t think so, not yet."

I think this team now has the caliber players to continue dominating the NFC South. It's up to the Coaching Staff and their trainers to get them prepared and believing in themselves continuously. Also not to be afraid to bench or cut those who quit on the team before they become a rotten core to the team.

"NFCS competition seems to have gotten better, but almost all have similar issues with their teams. And we struggled to win 9 games against this group last season. It’s still ranked as the worst division in football - so that would work in our favor - but it’s not an endorsement."

Our Team is a better team and I truly believe it had to get behind Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles. I believe we saw an improvement in the Buc's where they showed tenacity and endurance. They show moxie by getting to the line and doing their job. They showed they learned from the mistakes of the week before. I am proud of the job of this team and I can't wait to see the OC move us even further.

"At best, I’d say we’re a year away from being able to get to that next level of play needed to be able to compete for a Super Bowl."

I think we can be there this year because we have a seasoned QB and Seasoned veterans on the team if they can keep preparing and studying their opponents like hunters to the prey. Pirates don't just attack, they scout, prep, know their foes and have the weapons to overtake them. Lets Go Buc's!!

What say you?

I say "Champa Bay!!!"

Didn't see a "TC thread," so putting this here.  If there is one and I'm just blind, I'd appreciate someone letting me know.

One of Baker's historic issues has been his footwork, especially on his drops (particularly in 5- and 7-step drops), because he truncates them and doesn't get the depth he should in most cases.  I happened to watch some tape of TB's TC yesterday and noticed that Baker was doing some reps under center, and seemingly just working on his footwork.  No PA handoffs and no throws, just the dropbacks.

Now, it's just practice, and who knows right now if he'll translate what I saw onto the field in actual games, but it was the first time I've ever seen him actually do full 5- and 7-step drops.  I wondered coming in if Cohen would do something about that issue, and at least it seems like he's gotten Baker to accept coaching in this area.

The conditioning of key personnel being reported shows a new level of commitment. 

The focus on fundamentals by several starters is also encouraging. Starting to get really interesting.

This team really does seem a light year ahead of last season…looking for that to transfer early as well!

I think McMillan is going to make it, and I think he's going to see a lot of game snaps.  I would not be surprised if he's getting more snaps than Palmer by the third quarter.