Started From The BottomThe National Football PostPosted July 11, 2015 
In a sample space as minuscule as sixteen NFL games, there are bound to be statistical outliers–teams that were unusually lucky or unlucky by certain measures over the course of the season. It is the unavoidable curse of football. No matter how good the players are or how well they are coached, the team is at the mercy of the bouncing will of an oblong sphere. These teams often find that this remarkable luck, good or bad, is often unsustainable due to the statistical tendency of regression to the mean. Over a large enough sample, statistics subject to randomness (e.g. fumble recovery, record in close games, etc.) approach an even 50% rate. In this article, we will take a look at teams that significantly under-performed in these areas of randomness, likely to see their luck improve. For some of them, normalized performance in these areas might mean the difference between a winning or losing record, or even making or missing the playoffs.Record in Games Decided by 7 Points or FewerTeams’ records in one-score games gravitate towards .500, so any squad that loses an inordinate number of them might hope to get some of those wins back the following season. Perhaps outside of having an excellent time-wasting run game, luck and intangibles like “grittiness” are the clearest deciding factors in one-possession games. Below are the NFL teams who had a winning percentage below .400 in such games:Team Record (W/L) Win Pct New Orleans Saints (3-5) .375 Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) .333 Baltimore Ravens (2-4) .333 Houston Texans (2-4) .333 Atlanta Falcons (2-4) .333 New York Jets (3-6) .333 Oakland Raiders (2-5) .286 Tennessee Titans (1-4) .200 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) .111 New York Giants (0-3) .000 Chicago Bears (0-4) .000 Most of these teams could have really used the one or two wins that would have brought them to .500 in one-score games. Had the Texans closed out at 3-3 instead of 2-4, they would have finished 10-6, a wild-card-worthy record. The same goes for the Saints: if they had pulled out the victory in just one of those five losses, they would have finished 8-8 on the season, good enough for the division crown in the putrid 2014 NFC South. Speaking of the NFC South–my goodness, Bucs. Of Tampa Bay’s 16 games, nine came down to a single possession. This reveals two things about the Buccaneers: (1) their fans are probably still in pain from having their hearts broken so many times, and (2) their league-worst 2-14 record is probably far from representative of their true talent level. Regardless of how well QB Jameis Winston plays in his rookie year, Tampa is a big candidate to improve, simply because they will not fare as poorly in close games next year.While the Buccaneers are the most dramatic case, if you see your favorite team in that table, you might have an extra couple of wins coming your way in 2015.
