NFL Draft Bust Rate In The 1st Round Is High: Who Will Bust In 2015? By Mike Tuck Host, Tuck & O'Neill May 4th, 2015 
First Round of NFL Draft Produces Nearly A 50% Bust RateThose that have done research have discovered that over a 10-year period, 46% of players taken in the opening round have been busts. Now, even I might debate what constitutes a bust versus a hit, but point remains the same. The NFL Draft bust rate in the first round is very high.With some prodding, I’ve decided to make an educated guess at which players taken in the 1st round will end up on the wrong side of things. Now, as the study showed, there were up to as many as 21 “hits” so while I’ll attempt to guess 15 (46%) will fail, reality is it’s possible only 10 will. I took a look at the 2008-12 drafts (the ones after the study) and even though it’s early I’d say the totaled failed picks are 12, 14, 10, 8, and 18. That’s a failure rate just below 40%, but I was also being kind.So let’s label the losers and find out what happens. Keep in mind, this is a harsh practice. I hope all these guys are great, but based on history, they won’t be, so let’s find some flaws.1. Jameis Winston, Bucs- Off the field issues and poor decision-making could derail a promising career.5. Brandon Scherff, Redskins- I like him as a guard, but if Washington insists he is a tackle could turn into a bust.9. Ereck Flowers, Giants- Never dominated at Miami, and could struggle to justify this high of a pick.11. Trae Waynes, Vikings- Plenty of questions to suggest he could require being in the right system to succeed.13. Andrus Peat, Saints- Good player, could see him bouncing around but not being great.16. Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest- Not sure he has NFL body, strength to battle receivers or get off blocks.17. Arik Armstead, 49ers- Looks like Hercules, plays like Jane.18. Marcus Peters, Chiefs- Talented, but kicked off of team for a reason.22. Bud Dupree, Steelers- Combine warrior?23. Shane Ray, Broncos- Drug arrest, and possibly just a speed-rusher.
26. Breshad Perriman, Ravens- All those drops could be an issue.27. Byron Jones, Cowboys- I think he’s a safety, but drafted as a corner.
29. Phillip Dorsett, Colts- Fast, but diminutive and no clear route to playing time.30. Damarious Randall, Packers- Did lack of quality safeties in draft get him picked too soon?32. Malcolm Brown, Patriots- Not as productive as skill-set suggests he should have been.link
