Yeah that's a great point. What does the offense require to be elite within its style?
Yes, sir.
There’s maybe 3-5 elite QB’s in the league today.
Yet, there’s a few offenses that can make a mediocre/average QB look like a pro bowler.
I think there’s essentially 2 ways to do it in today’s NFL:
1. Build a stacked roster around a rookie QB contract. Give yourself a 3-4 year window.
2. Build a decent to good roster and go all-in on a top-tier FA QB for a 1-2 year window.
We’re essentially doing the 2nd one, minus the top-tier QB, and hoping to catch lighting in a bottle. Crazier things have happened.
agreed
It would be interesting to see how these two different approaches play out over time.
In the short term - probably too short to be meaningful - of this coming season then approach #1 might be the Texans (in year two of their window) and the Falcons for approach #2?
Maybe the Rams were an example of both? Not sure about that but drafted Goff and ran the window of approach #1 and then shifted to approach #2 winning it all?
In the short term - probably too short to be meaningful - of this coming season then approach #1 might be the Texans (in year two of their window) and the Falcons for approach #2?
Off the top of my head, these would be 2 great examples.
Id throw Chicago in as another option for scenario #1
I am probably missing soemone, but quickly for the approach #1 going back a bit, you have
2023 Bryce Young (Stroud)
2022 Kenny Pickett (Purdy)
2021 Trevor Lawrence (Fields)
2020 Joe Burrow
2019 Kyler Murray
2018 Mayfield (Darnold, Allen)
2017 Trubisky (Mahomes)
So, all of the approach #1 teams from Lawrence on back have failed by the metric we are using (3-4 year window)? These are the second contratc or should be second contract QBs
The Jaguars only have two season just over .500 and one playoff win.
The Bengals improved dramatically before an injury year for Burrows, but even then like most of the tams year 1 is sort of lost.
The Cardinals have one playoff win, but man a lot of bad and, like the others, a lost first season.
The jets and Browns got almost nothing from Darnold and Mayfield (a playoff win).
The Bears pick imploded so badly they had to go get Fields and now he is gone.
The Bills got much better, sort of like the Bengals, but not able to go the distance yet
Chiefs mahomes is potentially this generations GOAT
So the 2nd contract group (in bold) are 1-9 for SBs and maybe only 3-6 in terms of significant team success by virtue of approach #1. I think maybe all of the teams had a lost first year, of sorts. Mahomes didn't play until the end of that first season? So its really more like a 2-3 year window, maybe? And its heavily tilted toward failure
I am probably missing soemone, but quickly for the approach #1 going back a bit, you have
2023 Bryce Young (Stroud)
2022 Kenny Pickett (Purdy)
2021 Trevor Lawrence (Fields)
2020 Joe Burrow
2019 Kyler Murray
2018 Mayfield (Darnold, Allen)
2017 Trubisky (Mahomes)
So, all of the approach #1 teams from Lawrence on back have failed by the metric we are using (3-4 year window)? These are the second contratc or should be second contract QBs
The Jaguars only have two season just over .500 and one playoff win.
The Bengals improved dramatically before an injury year for Burrows, but even then like most of the tams year 1 is sort of lost.
The Cardinals have one playoff win, but man a lot of bad and, like the others, a lost first season.
The jets and Browns got almost nothing from Darnold and Mayfield (a playoff win).
The Bears pick imploded so badly they had to go get Fields and now he is gone.
The Bills got much better, sort of like the Bengals, but not able to go the distance yet
Chiefs mahomes is potentially this generations GOAT
So the 2nd contract group (in bold) are 1-9 for SBs and maybe only 3-6 in terms of significant team success by virtue of approach #1. I think maybe all of the teams had a lost first year, of sorts. Mahomes didn't play until the end of that first season? So its really more like a 2-3 year window, maybe? And its heavily tilted toward failure
Can't believe I'm defending Trevor Lawrence, but it seems like everyone forgot that his first season was an absolute cluster with urban Meyer as HC. Talk about lost seasons. Take that season out of the mix, and TL looks significantly better than some people think. No, not elite or great, certainly not worth that new contract (right now), but his numbers are respectable once you ignore his rookie year.
And Baker didn't do anything for, or in, CLE? I guess. Except he won more games in his rookie year than any CLE team since 2015. Broke the rookie record for TDs. Won his first game only after replacing an injured Tyrod Taylor in the 2nd half. Was the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year (ultimately won by Saquon Barkley). Was named to the PFWA All-Rookie team, the fist CLE QB to be selected for that honor since 1999.
All without playing a full season. Not to mention being led by Hue Jackson. I mean, if we're not going to mention Urban Meyer's negative influence on TL, then obviously Baker was a better QB than TL in their respective rookie seasons, no?
But I'm getting off-topic.
In 2020, Baker then led CLE to their first winning season since 2007. Led them to a playoff win, first since 1994. So, Baker just made them relevant and gave them some respectability for the first time since 1994, so yeah, CLE got almost nothing from Baker, lol.
Anyway, it's the Fourth, and I don't see an Independence Day thread, so happy Independence Day, Buc fans. Hope everyone is having a great day with great food and lots of friends and family. I'm having brisket and ribs, jalapenos poppers stuffed with dungeness crab and cream cheese, BBQd brats, elote and of course fried okra and cornbread.
Stay safe and have fun, sportsfans.
Can't believe I'm defending Trevor Lawrence, but it seems like everyone forgot that his first season was an absolute cluster with urban Meyer as HC. Talk about lost seasons.
There was not an ounce of criticism in my post. The standard was whether they got the team to the ultimate event. and many teams that are drafting that high had a coaching chage too. Thats why I didnt bother with Urban. The point was that its not really a 3-4 year window because the team drafting that high has plenty of problems.
And Baker didn't do anything for, or in, CLE? I guess.
See comment about. Not critcizing at all. Just meant that he did not deliver them to the Super B owl.
If you read the conversation in context I was offering the reality of approach #1
Mayfield’s deal is only reasonable if we win about the same number of games. If we win more, it’s going to get expensive - hopefully we end up paying him more.
Then you have Herbert. Chargers have had no identity or path for how to build around him. They got their franchise QB and just sorted winged it up until now with Harbaugh.
They really could have made a run but blew it.
Then you have Herbert. Chargers have had no identity or path for how to build around him. They got their franchise QB and just sorted winged it up until now with Harbaugh.
They really could have made a run but blew it.
I knew I was leaving someone out. Good point.
I think DH is right about the two paths thats why I thought it would be interesting to take a look. If you loosen the standard from getting to the Super Bowl to, for example, prolonged competitiveness it probably gets a little better, but its still really a crap shoot.
The other thing would be the question of whether it is actually a choice to follow approach #1 ? There is a limited choice as to QB some years, but is the GM of a team that plays poorly enough to get in the top 10 of round 1 actually going to pass on taking a QB? I doubt it. The Bucs were absolutely taking one and got Winston. The Falcons didnt even need one, but used their chance on a QB. The Chiefs had Smith.
So, it seems a team needs a lot of good fortune when it is positioned to go with approach #1 and then skill to take the right QB
hopefully we end up paying him more.
exactly
Can't believe I'm defending Trevor Lawrence, but it seems like everyone forgot that his first season was an absolute cluster with urban Meyer as HC. Talk about lost seasons.
There was not an ounce of criticism in my post. The standard was whether they got the team to the ultimate event. and many teams that are drafting that high had a coaching chage too. Thats why I didnt bother with Urban. The point was that its not really a 3-4 year window because the team drafting that high has plenty of problems.
And Baker didn't do anything for, or in, CLE? I guess.
See comment about. Not critcizing at all. Just meant that he did not deliver them to the Super B owl.
If you read the conversation in context I was offering the reality of approach #1
Ah, gotcha. Thx for the explanation.
Then you have Herbert. Chargers have had no identity or path for how to build around him. They got their franchise QB and just sorted winged it up until now with Harbaugh.
They really could have made a run but blew it.
Yeah. They had a prime opportunity there.
Curious to see how Harbaugh runs/builds things around him.
But, man, I'd give up the farm in a trade for him.
@donkey_hunter Herbert will be far for efficient but I think his numbers take a hit as they play a run heavy brand of football to control the clock etc.
They absolutely blew it by to capitalizing on his rookie deal.
I'm putting money on Chargers this year. They went from one of the worst coaches in the league to a top 10 imo.
I'd trade three 1st round picks for Herbert tho... But no team will trade a young, franchise QB.
If I’m Herbert, I’m concerned about my WR room. No more Keenan Allen. No more Mike Williams. Hell, no more Austin Ekeler or Gerald Everett to throw to either. He has a really young and inexperienced WR room. Josh Palmer is the grizzled vet, and he was third round pick in 2021.
I'd trade three 1st round picks for Herbert tho... But no team will trade a young, franchise QB.
Might be a little too steep for my blood. But, I agree, there's no way they jettison this guy.
But, could you imagine him at the helm with this roster? Oh my.
