Week 1: Bucs Win If / Bengals Win If

It's an exciting time as we gear up to see our Bucs play real football again! With the starters having limited time in the preseason and several new additions to the team, many questions remain. Facing the Bengals in Week 1 isn’t the ideal way to kick things off, but here’s how I see both teams positioning themselves for potential victory.

BUCS WIN IF…

Bucs on Offense: The offensive strategy under new Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson remains largely untested. Will he favor the wide zone run scheme, or will he incorporate a short passing game as an extension of the run? Last night, the 49ers found early success with a 16-to-4 pass-to-run ratio, utilizing quick, short passes and screens to neutralize the Rams’ pass rush. I like the idea of keeping the Bengals off balance and unpredictable.

However, I’m uncertain about what to expect from our offensive line. Many fans and analysts consider it a top-five unit when healthy, but that was last seen in 2024. Last season, even when four of the five starters played, they struggled, with most players (aside from Tristan Wirfs) losing one-on-one matchups far too often. I hope Robinson can create space and open up the field with varied play calls, attacking the Bengals' defensive weaknesses without becoming too predictable.

If Baker can establish a rhythm with quick, designed passes to primary receivers, he could find his groove. He’s a streaky player, so let’s get him firing. As the game progresses, I can see Gainwell exploiting the Bengals' defense with wide zone cutback runs, followed by Bucky Irving powering through behind duo scheme blocking.

If Chris Godwin can convert a few crucial third downs and Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson stretch the field, while the offensive line finds some cohesion to open running lanes, the offense could score 27 or more points against the Bengals.

Bucs on Defense: Similar to the offense, the defense holds its own mysteries, particularly regarding new personnel. How will Bain handle NFL-caliber players? Did Anzalone get enough preseason time to adjust to the new system? And how will A’Shawn Robinson fit in? These are significant questions. Perhaps the most crucial is whether Coach Todd Bowles will continue his usual blitzing frequency or allow his revamped front four or five to pressure the quarterback.

If players like Yaya Diaby, who entered the offseason with high expectations, can’t generate pressure, it could signal a long season ahead. Conversely, if they all perform to their potential, we could see a formidable pass rush. Given that our cornerback room isn’t a strength, getting pressure on quarterbacks will be vital to prevent our corners from getting taken advantage of. While Keionte Scott shows promise as a fourth-round pick, it’s unlikely he’ll surpass what Jacob Parrish accomplished last year—Parrish had a strong rookie season, setting a high bar for Scott.

If Bain can consistently apply pressure while Kancey, Vita, and Robinson collapse the pocket around Joe Burrow, we might keep him uneasy. A surprise blitz or two from Anzalone or Winfield could also make a difference.

BENGALS WIN IF…

Bengals on Offense: Can Joe Burrow break his trend of slow starts to the season? He’s undoubtedly a top-five quarterback talent, but he often struggles early, leading to sluggish beginnings for the Bengals. If the Bengals' offensive line can protect him, he should be able to exploit our corners and nickelback effectively.

Having healthy receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is a plus, and Chase Brown proved to be a productive runner and receiver last season. If their offensive line can hold up against the Bucs' defense, the Bengals should find success in the passing game. However, running the ball may be challenging, as Bowles’ defense is designed to stop the run on early downs.

If Burrow has time in the pocket, he should be able to connect with Chase and Higgins for significant gains. Keeping Burrow protected is key for their success.

Bengals on Defense: The Bengals’ defense has faced challenges since Burrow’s arrival, prompting changes this season. They acquired former 10th overall pick Dexter Lawrence in a trade with the Giants, signed DT Jonathan Allen, and added edge rusher Boye Mafe in free agency. This revamped defensive line could effectively stop the run and apply pressure.

The question remains whether corners Dax Hill and Tacario Davis can hold their own. The Bengals find themselves in a similar position as the Bucs, needing their defensive line to pressure opposing quarterbacks. If they can contain the Bucs' running game early, they may establish enough of a lead to start pinning their ears back in passing situations.

FINAL WORD

It’s a tall order to expect the Bucs defense, with two rookie starters and possibly another in nickel situations, to contain Burrow and the Bengals’ arsenal. I don't see that happening in Cincinnati for Week 1. I predict the Bengals will connect on a few big passes while the Bucs’ offense starts slowly, putting the rusty offensive line in a tough spot, ultimately leaving Baker vulnerable.

Prediction: Bengals WIN 27-19