After a bye week for some much-needed rest, the Bucs are ready to kick off the second half of their season. While we may not see as many injured players returning as we had hoped, the week off should still provide some benefits. Besides, every player in the league has multiple bumps and bruises they are dealing with by this time in the season.
With a 7-2 record, the Patriots are a surprise team this year. That record deserves respect, but they’ve also benefited from a relatively less than difficult schedule. Aside from a significant win against the Bills, they’ve had the favor of playing in a weaker division. Still, they’ve managed to win the games on their schedule. Let’s break down what each team needs to do to secure a win this weekend.
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: There’s a chance starting right tackle Luke Geodeke could return on Sunday, along with reserve guard Luke Haggard, but that’s still uncertain. Unfortunately, skill players like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. will be out for at least another week. At this point, we need to accept that this might be our lineup for the foreseeable future—no excuses.
I hope offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has done some serious self-scouting to analyze what worked and what didn’t during the first 8 games. We must perform better on offense than we did in our last two outings. If we attempt to start the game by trying to establish a running game, we will have a tough time pulling out even one win of the next three games. I can’t recall the last time that strategy worked for us. If the team is concerned about the offensive line holding up against the pass rush, let’s take advantage of first downs, when the defense isn’t pinning their ears back to rush the passer. I’d like to see more play-action passing; we had success with it in the Seahawks game when Grizzard called plays as if we needed to score every time the offense touched the ball. We need to get a lead and play with it, forcing the Patriots to play from behind—something they haven’t had to do much this season.
Bucs’ Outside Linebacker Anthony Nelson
Bucs on Defense: With Hassan Reddick ruled out again, Anthony Nelson will likely be in the spotlight once more. Let’s hope he delivers another standout performance! The Patriots operate a well-balanced offense, but if we can take an early lead, they’ll lose that balance.
Drake Maye is a talented young quarterback, but I want to see him forced to keep pace with our explosive offense. Take him out of his comfort zone of being able to hand off the ball, and instead make Maye have to win a game with his arm. I like our defensive backs against the Patriots’ pass catchers, but I’m cautious about sending six on a blitz and leaving Sir Vocea Dennis to cover TreVeyon Henderson one-on-one. Henderson’s speed could be a game-changer.
PATRIOTS WIN IF…
Patriots on Offense: As mentioned, the Patriots haven’t often played from behind this season. They do a good job mixing in play-action passes with a strong running game, and Head Coach Mike Vrabel won’t stray too far from that. However, they’ll need to throw more on early downs than they typically do. Trying to ram the ball into our defensive front repeatedly isn’t a winning strategy. They must loosen up the defense with outside runs and play-action passes.
If they can get the Bucs into their 3-4 defense (which features five players who aren’t particularly strong in coverage) on first downs, they can exploit that. They should expect Yaya Diaby and Nelson—and maybe even Vita Vea—to drop into coverage at times. Knowing this is half the battle, because those players aren’t able to cover much space. Setting Maye up for success means allowing him to throw on early downs and avoiding 7-step drops on 3rd and 10+ situations.
Patriots on Defense: The Patriots’ defense ranks 4th in scoring and 8th in yards allowed—they’re legitimate. But how many top offenses have they faced this season? Perhaps two?
Patriots’ Carlton Davis III with Defensive Teammates
This game presents an opportunity for them to prove their success isn’t just due to weak opponents. Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson need to apply consistent pressure on Baker Mayfield, forcing him to leave the pocket early and often. And I’m sure former Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis III would love to make a game-changing play. When healthy, he can give Bucs receiver Emeka Egbuka a tough time.
FINAL WORD:
These two teams are closely matched and likely rank (3rd or 4th) around the same position in their respective conferences. After going 7-1 in my Bucs predictions over the first eight weeks, I hope to keep the momentum going. This prediction might be more about wishful thinking than usual, but I know the Bucs need this win, especially with games against the Bills and Rams coming up next. A loss here could lead to a three-game losing streak. If this Bucs team is as good as we believe, they’ll win this home game coming off a bye.
Prediction: Bucs win 24-16.
The key for the Bucs is for them not to fart off for the first quarter and start playing in the middle 2nd quarter when they're down 17-0 thinking they're going to make a valiant comeback. The Patriots are too good to cooperate with that storyline.
They can get down 3-0 that's fine. But the team who scores the first touchdown will win the game.
The Bucs will win if they can get at least three sacks. The Patriots will win if Maye has time to throw. Pretty simple.
Bucs have been known to throw up a dud after the bye. They'll start slow again. Bucs lose 27 to 23. Hope I'm wrong.
Another great breakdown @ehinote, thanks.
I hope to have your confidence in our explosive offense - not a problem for me prior to Detroit, and the lingering injuries on offense. The line is better with Goedeke & Haggard. Which leads me to Bakers mobility & ability to throw accurate passes. If that’s not an issue, and the RT & G are back, this could be fun to watch.
I’m just not sure if Luke plays (sounded like a game-time decision after Bowles presser today).
I’ll see what transpires - I’m of two minds right now.
i do agree that these two teams are very similar, and the two rookie starting at LT & G could give us an opening.
Could be a fun game for us. I like your score prediction, but I could also flip the teams - it’s that close for me - I may be in the same page with you by game time.
If we attempt to start the game by trying to establish a running game, we will have a tough time pulling out even one win of the next three games. I can’t recall the last time that strategy worked for us. If the team is concerned about the offensive line holding up against the pass rush, let’s take advantage of first downs, when the defense isn’t pinning their ears back to rush the passer.
...This
"the establish a run game" thing is a misnomer, but yes this is not a team we will run on. In fact, this is the game you really hope to see the Coen-style short passing game that has been missing.
If we attempt to start the game by trying to establish a running game, we will have a tough time pulling out even one win of the next three games. I can’t recall the last time that strategy worked for us. If the team is concerned about the offensive line holding up against the pass rush, let’s take advantage of first downs, when the defense isn’t pinning their ears back to rush the passer.
...This
Yup.
If we attempt to start the game by trying to establish a running game, we will have a tough time pulling out even one win of the next three games. I can’t recall the last time that strategy worked for us. If the team is concerned about the offensive line holding up against the pass rush, let’s take advantage of first downs, when the defense isn’t pinning their ears back to rush the passer.
...This
Woah woah woah calm down there guy. We gotta make sure we set up 2nd and 9
As of Week 9 of the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball on first down 120 times, compared to 170 passing plays on first down. This results in a run-pass ratio of approximately 41% run to 59% pass on first down. Gotta love AI
As of Week 9 of the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball on first down 120 times, compared to 170 passing plays on first down. This results in a run-pass ratio of approximately 41% run to 59% pass on first down. Gotta love AI
ask it for the ratio under Coen
As of Week 9 of the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball on first down 120 times, compared to 170 passing plays on first down. This results in a run-pass ratio of approximately 41% run to 59% pass on first down. Gotta love AI
ask it for the ratio under Coen
Keep circling the stool as the Coriolis Effect takes that shizz to the worst city in America, Jacksonville…
we need our offense to show up today, we can‘t beat patriots with the game they showed in new orleans
or the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers season, the run-to-pass play ratio on first down was approximately 161 runs to 238 pass attempts, or 40% run plays. Based on full-season data, the Buccaneers passed more often than they ran on first down.As of Week 9 of the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball on first down 120 times, compared to 170 passing plays on first down. This results in a run-pass ratio of approximately 41% run to 59% pass on first down. Gotta love AI
ask it for the ratio under Coen
So apparently the run happy Grizzard runs 1% more than Coen.
As of Week 9 of the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball on first down 120 times, compared to 170 passing plays on first down. This results in a run-pass ratio of approximately 41% run to 59% pass on first down. Gotta love AI
What was the success rate on those plays, run vs. pass?
we need our offense to show up today, we can‘t beat patriots with the game they showed in new orleans
If our defense plays like it did vs. NO, against the Pats, then yes, we can beat the Patriots with the game they showed
