After a bye week for some much-needed rest, the Bucs are ready to kick off the second half of their season. While we may not see as many injured players returning as we had hoped, the week off should still provide some benefits. Besides, every player in the league has multiple bumps and bruises they are dealing with by this time in the season.
With a 7-2 record, the Patriots are a surprise team this year. That record deserves respect, but they’ve also benefited from a relatively less than difficult schedule. Aside from a significant win against the Bills, they’ve had the favor of playing in a weaker division. Still, they’ve managed to win the games on their schedule. Let’s break down what each team needs to do to secure a win this weekend.
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: There’s a chance starting right tackle Luke Geodeke could return on Sunday, along with reserve guard Luke Haggard, but that’s still uncertain. Unfortunately, skill players like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. will be out for at least another week. At this point, we need to accept that this might be our lineup for the foreseeable future—no excuses.
I hope offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has done some serious self-scouting to analyze what worked and what didn’t during the first 8 games. We must perform better on offense than we did in our last two outings. If we attempt to start the game by trying to establish a running game, we will have a tough time pulling out even one win of the next three games. I can’t recall the last time that strategy worked for us. If the team is concerned about the offensive line holding up against the pass rush, let’s take advantage of first downs, when the defense isn’t pinning their ears back to rush the passer. I’d like to see more play-action passing; we had success with it in the Seahawks game when Grizzard called plays as if we needed to score every time the offense touched the ball. We need to get a lead and play with it, forcing the Patriots to play from behind—something they haven’t had to do much this season.
Bucs’ Outside Linebacker Anthony Nelson
Bucs on Defense: With Hassan Reddick ruled out again, Anthony Nelson will likely be in the spotlight once more. Let’s hope he delivers another standout performance! The Patriots operate a well-balanced offense, but if we can take an early lead, they’ll lose that balance.
Drake Maye is a talented young quarterback, but I want to see him forced to keep pace with our explosive offense. Take him out of his comfort zone of being able to hand off the ball, and instead make Maye have to win a game with his arm. I like our defensive backs against the Patriots’ pass catchers, but I’m cautious about sending six on a blitz and leaving Sir Vocea Dennis to cover TreVeyon Henderson one-on-one. Henderson’s speed could be a game-changer.
PATRIOTS WIN IF…
Patriots on Offense: As mentioned, the Patriots haven’t often played from behind this season. They do a good job mixing in play-action passes with a strong running game, and Head Coach Mike Vrabel won’t stray too far from that. However, they’ll need to throw more on early downs than they typically do. Trying to ram the ball into our defensive front repeatedly isn’t a winning strategy. They must loosen up the defense with outside runs and play-action passes.
If they can get the Bucs into their 3-4 defense (which features five players who aren’t particularly strong in coverage) on first downs, they can exploit that. They should expect Yaya Diaby and Nelson—and maybe even Vita Vea—to drop into coverage at times. Knowing this is half the battle, because those players aren’t able to cover much space. Setting Maye up for success means allowing him to throw on early downs and avoiding 7-step drops on 3rd and 10+ situations.
Patriots on Defense: The Patriots’ defense ranks 4th in scoring and 8th in yards allowed—they’re legitimate. But how many top offenses have they faced this season? Perhaps two?
Patriots’ Carlton Davis III with Defensive Teammates
This game presents an opportunity for them to prove their success isn’t just due to weak opponents. Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson need to apply consistent pressure on Baker Mayfield, forcing him to leave the pocket early and often. And I’m sure former Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis III would love to make a game-changing play. When healthy, he can give Bucs receiver Emeka Egbuka a tough time.
FINAL WORD:
These two teams are closely matched and likely rank (3rd or 4th) around the same position in their respective conferences. After going 7-1 in my Bucs predictions over the first eight weeks, I hope to keep the momentum going. This prediction might be more about wishful thinking than usual, but I know the Bucs need this win, especially with games against the Bills and Rams coming up next. A loss here could lead to a three-game losing streak. If this Bucs team is as good as we believe, they’ll win this home game coming off a bye.
Prediction: Bucs win 24-16.
