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Week 12: Bucs Win If / Rams Win If

ehinote · 2025-11-21T21:50:58Z

It’s been a tough stretch for the Bucs, losing three of their last four games. While their schedule has been one of the toughest in the league during this span, good teams should find a way to beat other good teams occasionally. There’s no doubt that the Bucs are facing a formidable opponent this week in the Rams—possibly even a Super Bowl contender. My post may come off as defeatist, but that’s how I cope with the disappointment of a team that started strong. Let’s break down what it will take for the Bucs or the Rams to secure a win in Week 12. BUCS WIN IF… Bucs on Offense: The hope is for the Bucs to establish a strong running game to control the clock and grind out yards. However, the reality is that this may be a challenge. Yes, the Rams’ defense is more vulnerable against the run than the pass, but they’re not as weak as the Bills’ run defense. Sean Tucker had a great day on the ground last week, but his best career performances have come against defenses that were struggling at the time. For example, last year’s game against the Saints came at a time in which the Saints were unable to stop anyone on the ground for several games, and the Bills were in a similar situation last week. While I believe in Tucker and Rachaad White, we aren’t the kind of offense that can consistently control the game on the ground. A solid running game is crucial, but even getting to 3rd and 3 after some successful runs doesn’t guarantee first downs. We need to focus on passing early to get Baker Mayfield into a rhythm, especially since we’ll likely need to score at least 28 points—possibly even in the upper 30s. I’d love to see some early play-action passing down the field, like we did on the first drive against the Bills last week. The focus shouldn’t be solely on run-to-pass ratios but rather on what’s working. Baker needs to be efficient on third downs this week, and it would be great to see early-season Emeka Egbuka make a comeback, as he seems to have hit a rookie wall recently. Bucs on Defense: Our defense has struggled recently, and now they face an offense that excels at exploiting weaknesses. Coach Bowles has historically had trouble slowing down Sean McVay’s offenses, even with better personnel. The Bucs will likely try to blitz quarterback Matthew Stafford, but he has the highest quarterback rating in the NFL against the blitz, with 23 touchdowns and 0 interceptions—so that strategy may not be effective. If we switch to a conventional defense with our front four rushing while playing a soft zone behind them, it’ll likely give Stafford all day to find open receivers. If the Rams have success, we might shift to a cover 2 or cover 4 defense, allowing them to run effectively with Kyren Williams. All of this to say, our players need to step up and make plays if they want to slow down the Rams and keep the game close. If they don’t, it could be a long night. RAMS WIN IF… Rams on Offense: Essentially, the Rams should be able to do whatever they want on offense, just be cautious of a few unexpected blitz packages. The Bucs will likely have their three defensive linemen and two outside linebackers in on first downs, so the Rams should throw on early downs, similar to what the Patriots and Bills have done. Once they establish control, they can start carving up the Bucs’ defense with Williams and Corum. It should be a productive day for their offense. Rams’ wide receiver Puka Nacua – Photo by: ESPN I’m predicting Puka Nacua will go over 86.5 receiving yards, Stafford will throw over 2.5 touchdown passes, and Kyren Williams will exceed 13.5 receiving yards. Rams on Defense: The Rams should expect the Bucs to attempt to establish their running game early. If they can shut that down, they’ll be able to pressure Baker throughout the game, especially if the Bucs are forced to play from behind. I’m taking Baker to throw over 0.5 interceptions, as the Bucs will need to keep up on offense. FINAL WORD I’m not a big bettor, but I’m looking to earn a little extra holiday money with this game. It doesn’t get to be more of a gimme game than the Bucs at Rams. In addition to my player bets mentioned above, I also took the Rams and teased the points down just in case the Bucs score a late touchdown that could make it a one-score game. The worst-case scenario is the Bucs surprise me, and I’ll view it as if I paid for a Bucs victory. That’s a win-win situation for me at this point. Prediction: Rams 37, Bucs 27 Thank you to the New York Post for the headline picture!

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Trask Force

(@catherder)

Posts: 2983

Quartermaster

what a terrible punt 24 yards?

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:31 pm

DEBUCSOWN

(@debucsown)

Posts: 1745

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Bad punt

hopefully the defense can get a stop.

Anything but 7.

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:31 pm

seekpar

(@seekpar)

Posts: 1924

First Mate

I don't like the deep shot on 1st and 10. Matriculate the ball down the field boys. Instead, Rams 1st and 10. Pffffft.

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:32 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

(@fire-derrangement-syndrome)

Posts: 7916

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Posted by: @badabingbucs

↑

Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

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That fucking 2nd down run. Fucking God dammit Grizz

i don’t get it. Why is he that bad?

You think running on 2nd and 10 is a winning formula?

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:32 pm

BadabingBucs

(@badabingbucs)

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Posted by: @mic

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dixon needs to pin in the 10

To be honest, if we were going to call a 1st down run on second down, not sure why we punted to begin with

Needed to put points up on that opening drive

Rams are going to score anyway without our defensive backs playing

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:32 pm

BadabingBucs

(@badabingbucs)

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Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

↑

Posted by: @badabingbucs

↑

Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

↑

That fucking 2nd down run. Fucking God dammit Grizz

i don’t get it. Why is he that bad?

You think running on 2nd and 10 is a winning formula?

no I am agreeing with you

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:32 pm

Trask Force

(@catherder)

Posts: 2983

Quartermaster

I don't like the 1st down deep shots. They were moving the ball. That put them in 2nd and 10 and a run pretty much guarantees a 3rd and long.

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:32 pm

GottaCoachItBetter

(@donkey_hunter)

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Posted by: @seekpar

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I don't like the deep shot on 1st and 10.

You would've liked it if Baker didn't take so goddamn long to get the ball out.

That was a touchdown.

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:32 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

(@fire-derrangement-syndrome)

Posts: 7916

Captain

Posted by: @catherder

↑

what a terrible punt 24 yards?

Feels like years since our special teams has been good

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:33 pm

seekpar

(@seekpar)

Posts: 1924

First Mate

Slant there all night.

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:35 pm

Trask Force

(@catherder)

Posts: 2983

Quartermaster

got them in 3rd and long. Gotta get smo pressure on Stafford

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:35 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

(@fire-derrangement-syndrome)

Posts: 7916

Captain

McCollum is not playing well

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:35 pm

BadabingBucs

(@badabingbucs)

Posts: 5175

Captain

Posted by: @badabingbucs

↑

Posted by: @mic

↑

dixon needs to pin in the 10

To be honest, if we were going to call a 1st down run on second down, not sure why we punted to begin with

Needed to put points up on that opening drive

Rams are going to score anyway without our defensive backs playing

my point

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:36 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2179

Quartermaster

Zyon stinks

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:38 pm

GottaCoachItBetter

(@donkey_hunter)

Posts: 7425

Captain

Give up a 3rd and 18.

Good shit, Todd.

Good shit.

Posted : Nov. 23, 2025 9:38 pm

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Week 12: Bucs Win If / Rams Win If

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