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Week 15: Bucs Win If / Falcons Win If

ehinote · 2025-12-11T03:08:00Z

After starting the season 5-1, who would have predicted that this Thursday Night matchup against the Falcons would become a must-win for the Bucs? Since that strong start, the Bucs have struggled, going 2-5. It’s been a true Jekyll and Hyde season. Last week’s loss to the Saints marked my 10-3 record in predicting Bucs games, and it was the most disappointing of my misses. My confidence in picking a Bucs victory is at an all-time low, but let’s break down what each team needs to do to secure the “W”. BUCS WIN IF… Bucs on Offense: The Bucs offense has taken major steps backward. Injuries haven’t helped, but there seems to be something deeper at play. Baker Mayfield hasn’t looked sharp throwing the ball downfield for at least five games. My biggest concern at the start of the year with Josh Grizzard’s offense was its vertical dimension, which has never been one of Baker’s strengths. Ironically, our most effective play this year has been when Baker tucks the ball, escapes trouble, ducks his head, and runs for a first down. It’s sadly become our most consistently successful play. We’re seeing fewer instances where Baker gets into his drop and delivers the ball on time to find an open receiver. I’m not sure if he’s struggling to read the field, lacking confidence in the plays, or if his receivers just aren’t getting open, but he has missed opportunities. It’s time for Baker to start pushing the ball downfield, as this offense is stuck in neutral. I believe we’ll need to win in a shootout on Thursday night, and starting slowly is not an option. Our success will largely hinge on Baker’s arm. At least having Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back on the field adds some much-needed firepower. Bucs on Defense: I’m feeling more negative about Bowles’ defense now than I ever have during his tenure in Tampa. The scheme, technical coaching, and talent all seem to be lacking. Kirk Cousins may not come into this game with any momentum, but the Bucs gave him two get-right games last year. If we thought Saints rookie Tyler Shough hurt us with passes over the middle, just wait… Cousins thrives on that. I usually have a defensive scheme in mind for these matchups, but right now, I’m at a loss. I don’t see us excelling in any area. Unless our pass rushers step up and apply more pressure, I’m not sure how we slow down the Falcons. Let’s hope Drake London is sidelined; if not, he could be a problem. I’m counting on Antoine Winfield Jr. to step up… aside from the game in New Orleans, he’s been largely invisible. Some of that is due to Bowles placing him in deep middle third coverage. Go ahead and bet the Over in this game. FALCONS WIN IF… Falcons on Offense: Bijan Robinson is the Falcons franchise, but for this game, they need to lean on Bucs’-killer, Kirk Cousins. They can put up 20+ points by halftime, if they throw 70% of the time or more on first down. The Bucs defense struggles against heavy early-down passing, so they should keep it simple and throw the ball. The Falcons can lean on Robinson in the 4th quarter to run down clock and wear the Bucs down in the fourth quarter. Falcons on Defense: The Falcons should be able to pressure Baker Mayfield. Their rookie edge rushers will eventually get to him if he continues holding the ball too long. They need to keep Mike Evans in check and contain Bucky Irving. Making the Bucs be patient and work down the field will be key. They should get plenty of support from their offense to give them a chance to pull this game out. FINAL WORD I’m all in on a Bucs win today, but it’s purely from the heart. This team is struggling right now and needs a victory to break free from this downward spiral. Let’s hope the Falcons do what they do best—blow games. We could use one of those moments now more than ever. Prediction: Bucs 30, Falcons 24

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theknees

(@theknees)

Posts: 562

Boatswain

Who is our next head coach?

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:25 pm

ChadRico

(@chadrico)

Posts: 133

Master At Arms

What happened to our oline? How have they regressed like this

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:26 pm

White Tiger

(@white-tiger)

Posts: 2488

Quartermaster

Posted by: @hirecoen2025

↑

Thank God they punted. Zero chance we get that stop. Just run someone to the middle

ATL played into that, poor coaching made them play soft. We couldn’t stop them if they just handed off to Bijan one more time.

We may accidentally win this thing with another few great drives.

This post was modified 3 days ago 2 times by White Tiger

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:26 pm

seekpar

(@seekpar)

Posts: 1521

First Mate

One certainty it won't be Todd Bowles on 1/5/26.

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:26 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2121

Quartermaster

Let Tony Dungy eat his plate of food

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:26 pm

HireCoen2025

(@hirecoen2025)

Posts: 5880

Captain

Baker's throw have lost velocity and the spirals aren't tight

That was better than McMillan but man...

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:28 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2121

Quartermaster

I like that emotion from JMC

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:28 pm

theknees

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Posts: 562

Boatswain

McMillan is our best receiver.

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:29 pm

Donkey_Hunter

(@donkey_hunter)

Posts: 5730

Captain

Posted by: @theknees

↑

McMillan is our best receiver.

🤡

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:29 pm

HireCoen2025

(@hirecoen2025)

Posts: 5880

Captain

Baker high throw again

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:29 pm

HireCoen2025

(@hirecoen2025)

Posts: 5880

Captain

Baker hospital ball. Jesus...

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:30 pm

JC5100

(@jc5100)

Posts: 1745

First Mate

Posted by: @chadrico

↑

What happened to our oline? How have they regressed like this

Lost Mauch. Barton was always bad. He can’t be the unquestioned starter next year. They need to sign Bitonio and have Bredeson and Barton battle for center,

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:31 pm

BadabingBucs

(@badabingbucs)

Posts: 3327

Quartermaster

Why is baker trying to end Evans career?

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:31 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2121

Quartermaster

Baker has a pocket hes not playing well

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:32 pm

ChadRico reacted

HireCoen2025

(@hirecoen2025)

Posts: 5880

Captain

Grizz with a shit third down play call and no wr comes back to Baker. Awful

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:32 pm

ChadRico reacted

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Week 15: Bucs Win If / Falcons Win If

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