Here we go! This is the biggest game to date for the Bucs so far this season. The non-divisional rivalry with the Eagles runs deep, dating back to 1979 when the Bucs defeated the Eagles in the Bucs' first playoff game. More recently, we’ve enjoyed a two-game winning streak against last year's Super Bowl champions, including a dominant playoff victory in the 2023 Wild Card round, where we knocked the Eagles out with a 32-9 win.
But all of that doesn't matter come Sunday. The Eagles are as formidable as ever, and the Bucs are dealing with injuries. In the NFL, there are no excuses... it's next man up! Here’s what each team needs to do to secure a win.
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense:
Last year’s offensive performance against the Eagles was impressive and somewhat unexpected. Liam Coen’s offense came out firing, scoring 14 points in the first quarter and 10 in the second, leading to a 33-16 victory. Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards that day. Do I think we can replicate that this Sunday? Not quite. We had a healthy Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Jr. then; this year, we’ll have Emeka Egbuka and possibly a Godwin who hasn’t played in almost a year.
As always, staying ahead of the chains is crucial, and this week, even more so. We can't afford to play conservatively or force our will with the running game against the Eagles' front seven. Our right side of the offensive line is banged up, which is our strongest running side. We need to avoid third-and-long situations. Let’s get Bucky Irving outside more than usual, and let Baker make plays on early downs in the first quarter.
Bucs on Defense:
I have faith in Coach Bowles to create a solid defensive game plan against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. He’s successfully shut down their offense in our last two matchups. His aggressive blitzes disrupt their high-powered running game and create major problems for Hurts. However, I expect the Eagles to have adjusted to the zero blitzes we've used effectively against them. Other teams (see Chiefs' game earlier this year) have also started to run all-out blitzes against the Eagles with success. We should be prepared to see something different this time around.
I feel confident about our matchups against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but Dallas Goedert is a concern given our linebacker struggles this season. It’s going to be all or nothing from this defense, and hopefully, our blitzes can find success early and often.
EAGLES WIN IF…
Eagles on Offense:
If Philly plays it right, they'll target Saquon Barkley in the passing game, similar to how the Falcons utilized Bijan Robinson against the Bucs. If we run zero blitzes, they should target Barkley out of the backfield or split him out for favorable matchups against our linebackers. If I’m the Eagles and I see Desmond Watson on the field during short yardage situations, I’d run the "tush push" or any running play right at him... as he plays too high. Even at 450 pounds, that technique is moveable.
As mentioned above, it’s going to be all or nothing from the Bucs' defense. If the Eagles capitalize on our blitzes, they could rack up big plays, gaining large chunks of yardage and scoring points.
Eagles on Defense:
The Eagles' defense needs to be prepared for early surprises. Focus on pass coverage while letting the front four handle the run. The Bucs haven’t established a consistent running game this season, and the Eagles should aim to continue that trend. Their front four can get plenty of pressure in Mayfield's face. They should take away quick passes and lookout for play action. If they can force the Bucs into a methodical offense, it will be challenging for us, especially with our current injuries.
FINAL WORD:
The timing of this game isn't ideal. We seem a bit too banged up to take on a physical Eagles team, and this is a revenge game for them. I’d love to see how this matchup plays out later in the season when we’re healthier. It would be exciting to revisit this in the NFC Championship Game.
Prediction: Eagles win 30-13. (My original pick was Bucs 17, Eagles 31)
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30-13? Yee gave little faith. I think eagles win but if Bowles can dial up some pressure we can bottle up Barkley.
Bucs win if they can score 28+ and I think they will if they win the turnover battle.
I'll take eagles 28 Bucs 24 but I think dig out of an early hole
I think the humidity is gonna help us. Maybe AJ Brown aggravates his hammy
Love the write up. That prediction seems timid and uninformed. In what world do we allow 30 points to this style of football team?
Tampa has very little respect for the Eagles or anyone coaching there. Our team is banged up but our defense isn’t. We should be able to put them away comfortably by the 4th quarter. Bucs 31 - Eagles 10.
@theknees - Maybe wrong, but never uninformed when it comes to football. I could say 24-20 every week, but this is the NFL. Strange things happen.
It could go this way if we get down early and have to dig out trying to put the ball down the field. That’s when bad things can happen when playing against a defensive front like the Eagles.
Uninformed? I'd like to inform you about the team that is 3-0 and won the Superbowl last year. 31 to 10? You must be thinking it's January 19th 2003 and Ronde Barber is still out there intercepting passes. I'd like to inform you that the Bucs are a banged up team. Newsflash: The Bucs beat the Jets by a whopping two points. If they beat the Eagles by 21 with this patchwork O-line ... well, anything can happen, but to predict it? OK dude. You make your predictions. Lets circle back after the game.Love the write up. That prediction seems timid and uninformed. In what world do we allow 30 points to this style of football team?
Tampa has very little respect for the Eagles or anyone coaching there. Our team is banged up but our defense isn’t. We should be able to put them away comfortably by the 4th quarter. Bucs 31 - Eagles 10.
As for my prediction, I'll reluctantly predict the Bucs lose 27 to 17. When things aren't urgent, the Bucs don't play urgently. It's the perfect opportunity for the Bucs to throw out a stinker. I hope to come on here and say "Wow you called it! Great prediction!"
If Tristan & CG are on the field Sunday, it becomes a closer game, but it doesn’t give us an advantage, just more competitive.
Eagles front is for real and Saquan has to be stopped.
However, if we do get them back, they’re endurance and effectiveness may not be back for a few weeks.
Someone said it earlier, we have a punchers chance…but I’m not expecting a miracle. I have no feel for this game with Tristan & CG - but if neither play - let’s give Baker this Sunday. We’re not winning this game without them.
Great write up, thx so much for posting these.
just going to hit on a couple points, as most of the real analysis has already been done here. Firstly, Bowles has to blitz Hurts and run blitz consistently in this game. he can't take his foot off the gas the way he did vs. NYJ last week. PHI is loaded with offensive talent and while Hurts isn't elite by any means, he's obviously good enough to make you pay if you let him just stand back there and throw. But he's not very good when he's pressured, particularly if that pressure comes from the IOL or from his right, forcing him left, so Bowles has to make Hurts as uncomfortable as possible in this one, and he can't let him off the hook for 60 minutes.
Secondly, the Bucs OL can't draw a dozen flags. It's probably going to be pretty tough for those guys, but they have to stop drawing all these holding and procedural flags. They're drive killers and we can't lose half a dozen drives to those kinds of penalties. When you go back and rewatch these first three games, TB could've scored 10+ points in any one of them if not for multiple drive-killing penalties in every game. i know, we're seeing new Ols every single week, so it's a tall order, I get it. But to have a chance at stealing this game the OL is going to have to play much cleaner football this Sunday.
Anyway, gotta get to work, so my prediction is 28-27, TB
Thank you for posting these. Always enjoy them.
What is status of Wirfs? Godwin?
What is status of Wirfs? Godwin?
Both are slated to play. With Evans out, it’s still going to be dicey but Shep has proven to be a steady Eddie with Mayfield and forces teams to keep their defense honest.
Wirfs coming back to the offense changes everything. Our run offense is 9th in total yards and middle of the pack in yards per carry, both should improve. Not sure the Eagles front 7 is the best way to prove that out. But over time our running game is even more lethal.
So at what point do we fire our special teams coach?
EE with a drop three weeks in a row.
EE with a drop three weeks in a row.
2nd and 3 and we don't run it. Targeting their only good corner 3 times. This isn't a good game plan.
The punter is definitely slow, but the blocking on the first punt was shit.
