Every week raises the stakes, especially after back-to-back-to-back games against the Seahawks, Eagles, and 49ers. Now, we face the Lions, and this brutal stretch of our schedule continues, potentially getting even tougher. Let's see what it will take for either team to get this big W!
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: With the Lions' injuries, the Bucs offense should be able to put up some points. However, trying to run the ball straight at the Lions front seven isn’t the best strategy. I trust Josh Grizzard to mix it up effectively. No matter who’s at receiver, he’ll find ways to get them open. I’m hoping Charlie Heck can hold up against Aidan Hutchinson better than last year’s backup tackle, Justin Skule, who gave up 4 sacks in their Week 2 matchup.
Rashaad White will need another solid performance, both running and receiving. If he can rack up over 100 combined yards and Baker can keep it turnover-free, we’ll be in a good position to win.
Bucs on Defense: Stopping the Lions’ running game is crucial. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can take over a game, as the Lions prefer to play smash-mouth football but also like to stretch the field. Luckily, our defense excels at stopping the run, and we need to do it without relying too much on defensive backs.
Last year, we were successful rushing four and playing zone coverage deep enough to force the Lions to dump the ball short. The Bucs kept their weapons in front of them and gang tackled well. In that game the Bucs blitzed the least amount per snap all season. You don’t stop the Lions’ offense completely; you hope to slow them down.
LIONS WIN IF…
Lions on Offense: The Lions moved the ball well against the Bucs last year between the 20s but struggled in the red zone. Even in a game where the Bucs performed well, the Lions could have won had they taken their redzone points. That’s a concern for me. Yes, we intercepted Jared Goff on his first pass, but that could have easily been ruled illegal contact (past 5 yards) on Zion McCullom, which disrupted the timing of the pass. I doubt the refs miss that call this time.
The Lions should target Amon-Ra St. Brown early and often. He creates mismatches for our corners. He’s not as big as an A.J. Brown, nor as small as a DeVonta Smith—he’s a perfect combination of strength, speed, and hands that can exploit our defense. If St. Brown is in the slot, that forces the Bucs to cover tight end Sam LaPorta with a linebacker, which gives the Lions an advantage. If the Bucs bring in an extra defensive back (dime), the Lions can exploit the running game. The Lions have had success running at Logan Hall in the past. They could take advantage of his below average first step with stretch blocks.
Lions on Defense: The Lions’ defense is just as banged up as our offense, and losing Brian Branch to an NFL suspension doesn’t help. Defensive Coordinator Kelvin Sheppard will need to get creative with their coverages. The best-case scenario for them is if Mike Evans is either unable to play or on a snap count for Monday night’s game. Evans, combined with the Bucs’ youth at receiver, could create significant challenges for this unit. They’ll rely on Hutchinson to pressure Baker Mayfield all night and hope that Jack Campbell can make some key plays from his linebacker position. Regardless of who’s in the Lions’ uniforms, I expect a physical defense that won’t give up yards easily.
FINAL WORD: Maintaining a winning streak in the NFL is tough, especially against a playoff-caliber team coming off a close loss. The Lions rarely lose back-to-back games. During last year's game, the Lions had an off day while the Bucs played pretty well, and the difference was the Lions not capitalizing on red zone opportunities. Playing with an injured offense isn’t easy, even though the Bucs have made it look rather easy. However, playing from behind with an injured offense can quickly turn ugly. Let’s hope Monday night doesn’t get ugly for the Bucs.
Prediction: Lions win 34-20.
Last year, we were successful rushing four and playing zone coverage deep enough to force the Lions to dump the ball short. The Bucs kept their weapons in front of them and gang tackled well. In that game the Bucs blitzed the least amount per snap all season.
I wonder if they repeat this?
Great write up
I think it will be closer than 34-20, but the Lions prevail 37-31, definitely betting the over (52.5) on this one.
Agree with this, everyone is beat up, can we scheme something that works on both sides of the ball - but the grittiness of the Bucs wins this year says we can beat any team if they’re nut at they’re best - we have a punchers chance. That Goff offense is phenomenal - great challenge to see if Bowles can figure it out - they’re defense has some secondary issues that may allow Grizz to find a way… I think it’s definitely a coin toss.Lions aren't what they were. Close game. Coin flip
I’ll be surprised if it’s not a close game. May come down to the final play, hope so anyway.
What makes it great is that our win total means we have given ourselves a great position, we don’t HAVE to win, but we may - but even if we don’t, we’re going to learn a lot about a team we’ll very likely see again this season…
Yes, nice write up, and we could repeat it, or see a variation on a theme.Last year, we were successful rushing four and playing zone coverage deep enough to force the Lions to dump the ball short. The Bucs kept their weapons in front of them and gang tackled well. In that game the Bucs blitzed the least amount per snap all season.
I wonder if they repeat this?
Great write up
Last year, we were successful rushing four and playing zone coverage deep enough to force the Lions to dump the ball short.
Think we'll need to man up more this year.
And, we need to see minimal blitzing, because Goff has been one of the best against the blitz this year.
The Lions four wins haven't been against great opponents. They beat the Bears pretty badly, but the Bears were in a transition to a new coach. The other wins were against tRavens, Browns and Bengals. They haven't had a close game win or lose, the closest was 8 points. Obviously, they're not terrible, but they haven't won a hard fought game against a good opponent.Lions aren't what they were. Close game. Coin flip
I mean, he goes against that Lion defense in practice every week, he clearly has an advantage as to how to deal with the rush - the timing and from where blitz comes can still disrupt him.Last year, we were successful rushing four and playing zone coverage deep enough to force the Lions to dump the ball short.
Think we'll need to man up more this year.
And, we need to see minimal blitzing, because Goff has been one of the best against the blitz this year.
The Lions four wins haven't been against great opponents. They beat the Bears pretty badly, but the Bears were in a transition to a new coach. The other wins were against tRavens, Browns and Bengals. They haven't had a close game win or lose, the closest was 8 points. Obviously, they're not terrible, but they haven't won a hard fought game against a good opponent.Lions aren't what they were. Close game. Coin flip
That's a cake schedule
Did i just not...keep mine updated or...? :(
34 for the lions?!
with us getting Morrison back?
I hope not!
On paper, DET should win this game. They have all their starting offensive weapons available, their OL is getting healthier, and it looks like their OC is getting comfortable as well. Their biggest weakness is obviously their secondary, that will enter the game without either of the starting CBs or Ss. But their DL is pretty healthy, Hutchinson is looking more like his old self each week now, and their LBs are pretty good in all respects. They're also leading the league in pts/gm and their defense has allowed just 15.5pts/gm at home.
So, considering that TB is probably going to be without most of their starting WRs as well as Bucky, plus the fact that our LB corps hasn't been good vs. receiving RBs/TEs, well, Houston, we have a problem, in the immortal words of Commander Lovell.
So, based on those facts, DET should win by, idk, a couple scores.
However;
I think the path to victory for the Bucs is going to trying to emulate how the Chiefs just beat them, i.e., contain Gibbs/Montgomery in the first half, run blitz early and often, find a way to cover LaPorta, get them behind the sticks and force a couple stops/FGAs in the first half, then capitalize by scoring TDs in return. Punch them in the mouth early.
most importantly, go into HT with some kind of lead, then in our first drive coming out of the half, score a TD. We have to have at least a TD+ lead going into the 4th quarter to make DET one-dimensional. Take away Goff's ability to hand the ball off/run PA. Make him stand in the pocket, make the right reads presnap, and execute at a high level over and over and over while Bowles throws every exotic blitz he can think of at him. Put all the pressure to perform on Goff.
That's the gameplan, in a nutshell, imo. Sell out to stop the run early, develop some kind of 2nd half lead, and then throw the kitchen sink at Goff down the stretch. on he other side of the ball, obviously protect Baker however possible from Hutchinson, but otherwise let Grizz and Baker do their thing.
The biggest flaw in that plan is clearly our LBs coverage skills vs. their RBs and laPorta. If any combination of one of their RBs and LaPorta go off, it'll be a long day for our defense while they march up and down the field. And tbh, i don't know how we stop them from doing exactly that. i mean, if I'm their OC, I've installed at a minimum 12 plays for LaPorta, just based on how our LBs have performed in coverage this season. I don't know what the O/U is on LaPorta's yds or receptions, but I'd probably be very tempted to bet the Over.
Anyway, Bowles is going to have to work some serious magic defending those pass-catching RBs and Laporta if TB is going to have a chance at winning this one, simple as that. But if he can do that, Grizz and Baker have a shot to shanghai this game.
Another take
Will the Lions be able to exploit Buccaneers LB SirVocea Dennis in coverage?
I very much expect they will on Monday night. Dennis has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap this season, which is the worst among all linebackers with at least 100 coverage snaps. Sometimes coverage metrics can be fluky or misleading, but after watching every target against Dennis, that is not the case here. Dennis has struggled in coverage, and those plays are riddled with missed tackles in space, too.
That’s absolutely perfect for the Lions, who already attack linebackers plenty. This season, 34% of Detroit’s targets have been directed at linebackers, the third-highest in the league per NFL Next Gen Stats. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta could have big receiving days.
