Every week raises the stakes, especially after back-to-back-to-back games against the Seahawks, Eagles, and 49ers. Now, we face the Lions, and this brutal stretch of our schedule continues, potentially getting even tougher. Let's see what it will take for either team to get this big W!
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: With the Lions' injuries, the Bucs offense should be able to put up some points. However, trying to run the ball straight at the Lions front seven isn’t the best strategy. I trust Josh Grizzard to mix it up effectively. No matter who’s at receiver, he’ll find ways to get them open. I’m hoping Charlie Heck can hold up against Aidan Hutchinson better than last year’s backup tackle, Justin Skule, who gave up 4 sacks in their Week 2 matchup.
Rashaad White will need another solid performance, both running and receiving. If he can rack up over 100 combined yards and Baker can keep it turnover-free, we’ll be in a good position to win.
Bucs on Defense: Stopping the Lions’ running game is crucial. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can take over a game, as the Lions prefer to play smash-mouth football but also like to stretch the field. Luckily, our defense excels at stopping the run, and we need to do it without relying too much on defensive backs.
Last year, we were successful rushing four and playing zone coverage deep enough to force the Lions to dump the ball short. The Bucs kept their weapons in front of them and gang tackled well. In that game the Bucs blitzed the least amount per snap all season. You don’t stop the Lions’ offense completely; you hope to slow them down.
LIONS WIN IF…
Lions on Offense: The Lions moved the ball well against the Bucs last year between the 20s but struggled in the red zone. Even in a game where the Bucs performed well, the Lions could have won had they taken their redzone points. That’s a concern for me. Yes, we intercepted Jared Goff on his first pass, but that could have easily been ruled illegal contact (past 5 yards) on Zion McCullom, which disrupted the timing of the pass. I doubt the refs miss that call this time.
The Lions should target Amon-Ra St. Brown early and often. He creates mismatches for our corners. He’s not as big as an A.J. Brown, nor as small as a DeVonta Smith—he’s a perfect combination of strength, speed, and hands that can exploit our defense. If St. Brown is in the slot, that forces the Bucs to cover tight end Sam LaPorta with a linebacker, which gives the Lions an advantage. If the Bucs bring in an extra defensive back (dime), the Lions can exploit the running game. The Lions have had success running at Logan Hall in the past. They could take advantage of his below average first step with stretch blocks.
Lions on Defense: The Lions’ defense is just as banged up as our offense, and losing Brian Branch to an NFL suspension doesn’t help. Defensive Coordinator Kelvin Sheppard will need to get creative with their coverages. The best-case scenario for them is if Mike Evans is either unable to play or on a snap count for Monday night’s game. Evans, combined with the Bucs’ youth at receiver, could create significant challenges for this unit. They’ll rely on Hutchinson to pressure Baker Mayfield all night and hope that Jack Campbell can make some key plays from his linebacker position. Regardless of who’s in the Lions’ uniforms, I expect a physical defense that won’t give up yards easily.
FINAL WORD: Maintaining a winning streak in the NFL is tough, especially against a playoff-caliber team coming off a close loss. The Lions rarely lose back-to-back games. During last year's game, the Lions had an off day while the Bucs played pretty well, and the difference was the Lions not capitalizing on red zone opportunities. Playing with an injured offense isn’t easy, even though the Bucs have made it look rather easy. However, playing from behind with an injured offense can quickly turn ugly. Let’s hope Monday night doesn’t get ugly for the Bucs.
Prediction: Lions win 34-20.