There's been a lot of debate leading up to the draft about why some prospects might be overrated and not worth their early 1st rd projection. Myles Garrett, OJ Howard, and Njoku come to mind. The thing is, for NFL teams it's all about projection based on things like size, speed, and small things that show up on tape that they think they can exploit and maximize. Take a look at some of these top level NFL DEs and their paltry college production.
- Danielle Hunter had 4.5 career sacks at LSU. He had 12.5 in his second NFL season last year in Minnesota
- Ziggy Ansah had 4.5 career college sacks. He had 14.5 in his third NFL season.
- Cliff Avril never had more than 6.5 sacks in a season in college. He's had at least 8.0 in 6 of his last 7 seasons
- Chandler Jones never had more than 4.5 sacks in a season at Syracuse. He's had at least 11.0 sacks in 3 of his last 4 years in the NFL
- JJ Watt had 7.0 sacks as a senior at UW and 11.5 for his college career. Warren Sapp said he was overrated because he only played against unathletic B1G OL. He has 17.5+ sacks in 3 of his last 4 healthy seasons.
So when looking at guys we might take, like Willis, Baker, Harris, Jackson, Harris, etc. Let the tape do the talking, not the college numbers.
