Hello everyone.What I have done here is a statistical breakdown of what makes a WR special in todays game. I have broken everything down according to height and weight. Looking at the top receivers in yardage I noticed a pattern. Take a look at the top WRs in yardage; (weight rounded to nearest 5) combine results 10/20/40 yard dash in red Josh Gordon 6'3" 225Antonio Brown 5'10" 185 1.47/2.56/4.37Megatron 6'5" 235Demarius Thomas 6'3"230AJ Green 6'4"210Alshon Jeffery 6'3" 215Andre Johnson 6'3" 230Pierre Garcon 6' 215. 1.5/2.56/4.42]DeSean Jackson 5'10" 175. 1.53/2.52/4.35Jordy Nelson 6'3" 220Brandon Marshall 6'4" 230Eric Decker 6'3" 215Dez Bryant 6'2' 220Vincent Jackson 6'5" 230Jimmy Graham- TEA clear pattern has developed while studying these top-15 receivers. Only four of the top 15 are under 6'3" tall. Amongst those players three out of the four have elite timed speed, with the only exception being Dez Bryant. Dez is 6'2".The data shows that the most successful NFL WR are 6'3" or taller. Outside of that range, a player has a small chance of cracking the elite top 15. Amongst those who do make it to the highest level in the NFL yet do not possess ideal size, 75% of those players possess elite speed in some category of the 10/20/40 times. There is only one player in the top 15 who is not ideal size and does not have elite speed. Dez Bryant, who is 6'2" and nearly does meet the height requirement of 6'3".This is a statistical look at why Sammy Watkins needs to have elite timed speed at the combine if he is going to be considered a legitimate candidate to be drafted early in the first round. When you also consider that the 6'3" or taller WR makes up a smaller percentage of the WRs who enter the NFL every year the statistics become even more impressive. Just based on sheer numbers, WRs who are under 6'3" should have a better chance than those over 6'3" of making this list. But they don't and it's not even close. Run Sammy run!
The NFL is very cyclical. Right now I'd say there are a bunch more "tall" WRs than ther are "tall" CBs. This gives them a decided advantage, and QBs and OCs are taking full advantage. It will be interesting to see what happens when the "tall" CB count draws even with "tall" WRs. I wouldn't count shorter, quicker, faster guys out. There will always be a place for the Wes Welker's out there..
Yea you missed for boat on that Dez Bryant part. He's a freakish athlete.
Indeed you are correct. And point well taken. One stat from one category does not give you a complete picture.In fact if you look at receptions per game or total receptions you see a lot more of the slot and possession receivers, then when you look at TD receptions, it goes right back to the 6'3" and taller player. So, this is not to say that A slow Sammy Watkins would not have value, it just may point to exactly what his value is. Ie: top 10 or top 20 or top 30. Is a slot / possession type WR worth a top 7 selection? I think the answer will be found in his timed runs.
Yea you missed for boat on that Dez Bryant part. He's a freakish athlete.
I didn't miss anything. All I did was evaluate the statistics. The fact that Bryant is the ONLY guy who made the top 15 without meeting any of the criteria of the other players says a lot about what kind of player he is.
Yea you missed for boat on that Dez Bryant part. He's a freakish athlete.
I didn't miss anything. All I did was evaluate the statistics. The fact that Bryant is the ONLY guy who made the top 15 without meeting any of the criteria of the other players says a lot about what kind of player he is.
Ok point taken
Sammy Watkins has elite football speed whatever he runs at Indy. I don't know what you consider "fast", but I highly doubt he's going out and running in the 4.5s.
Im interested in what he will run but the dude can flat out play and I would take him on our roster anyday.
Cut to the chase. How fast are you saying he has to run? 4,45 not good enough?
Tape don't lie
Cut to the chase. How fast are you saying he has to run? 4,45 not good enough?
I think that his 10/20/40 has got to show elite speed somewhere. If it's a 1.47 10 yard dash then it shows the ability to gain separation.If he runs a 2.5 20 it shows that he has the accelleration to beat CBs and combined with his moves is a good signal that he could get open at the next level.As far as his 40 time it is probably less important, but ideally, he would have to be under the number you threw out there 4.45. If he doesn't have elite 10/20 but has a good 40 it shows that he has breakaway speed. I don't know why they don't have them run a 100 yard dash, this would indicate breakaway speed better than the 40. Our own Michael Smith supposedly ran a sub 4.4 40 and yet his 100 is obviously not elite in any way.IMO if he shows eliteness in any of those areas combined with his moves he will solidify a top 15 selection. Slow timed runs combined with little film of him lining up outside against press coverage could significantly hurt his draft stock. Definitely a first rounder regardless if you ask me.
Tape don't lie
College tape doesn't always translate to the NFL. It may not lie, but it isn't always 100% truthful, either.
Anquan Boldin carved out a nice career... at 6'1" and not very fast. ;)
Combine? Combine? Sammy don't need no stinkin' combine. He may not even be there.
my money is on him runing 4.43 at the NFL combine. NFL combine where they're all being timed at the same place by the same people is the only 40 time I care about.
